Rosco,
I believe you missed the point on WHAT the world price of wheat is.
It is only the countries with "single desk" monopolies that are $40/t behind the rest of the world.
The price is established in the US... for high quality milling wheat... and they have a pool of 49.3mmt. If the wheat flows through the US... so what... the world price remains the same... the supply is just coming from a different supplier... the total volume avaliable has not changed.
I don't know if you have been watching the stats.... but they are VERY positive.
That the CWB is only taking 80% of our wheat is criminal!
http://www.uswheat.org/USWPublicDocs.nsf/a280b21ba0e2ea9385256f3900554e60/d68969a36e92bdbe85257225006aacb9/$FILE/S&D061109B&W.pdf
World Production 06-07 587mmt down 32mmt from last crop year.
US production down 8mmt.
Ausie prod. Down 14mmt.
World ending stocks down 28mmt from last year.
World ending stocks down 55mmt from the 10 year average.
Stocks Use Ratio at 19%
US average wheat farm gate price for 06-07 $US4.15-4.55...
A big chunk of that is soft winters which sell at a big discout to our Hard Red wheats.
In Fact a case should be made for increased CWB returns, if non-graded CDN wheat were sent south..
As the CWB would be able to sell a higher % of its high quality without dilution from lower price markets because of excess supply.
The CDN grower simply adds the CDN wheat to the US pool of grain... it is diluted to US quality instantly.
This shrinks the Canadian pool of grain making it worth more as there is a smaller supply of the special Canadian quality.
I believe you missed the point on WHAT the world price of wheat is.
It is only the countries with "single desk" monopolies that are $40/t behind the rest of the world.
The price is established in the US... for high quality milling wheat... and they have a pool of 49.3mmt. If the wheat flows through the US... so what... the world price remains the same... the supply is just coming from a different supplier... the total volume avaliable has not changed.
I don't know if you have been watching the stats.... but they are VERY positive.
That the CWB is only taking 80% of our wheat is criminal!
http://www.uswheat.org/USWPublicDocs.nsf/a280b21ba0e2ea9385256f3900554e60/d68969a36e92bdbe85257225006aacb9/$FILE/S&D061109B&W.pdf
World Production 06-07 587mmt down 32mmt from last crop year.
US production down 8mmt.
Ausie prod. Down 14mmt.
World ending stocks down 28mmt from last year.
World ending stocks down 55mmt from the 10 year average.
Stocks Use Ratio at 19%
US average wheat farm gate price for 06-07 $US4.15-4.55...
A big chunk of that is soft winters which sell at a big discout to our Hard Red wheats.
In Fact a case should be made for increased CWB returns, if non-graded CDN wheat were sent south..
As the CWB would be able to sell a higher % of its high quality without dilution from lower price markets because of excess supply.
The CDN grower simply adds the CDN wheat to the US pool of grain... it is diluted to US quality instantly.
This shrinks the Canadian pool of grain making it worth more as there is a smaller supply of the special Canadian quality.
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