The world in 10 years

[charliep]

Our discussion to date have been good but have focused on problems in the current system. Just to get discussion going in a more positive vein, what would an optimum grain marketing system look like in ten years. Maybe to put things in another way, you are a wizard with a magic wand and with the touch of the wand/a few magic words, you could change the current pricing/marketing system anyway you want to something you think would work better.

An example would be a lot of the ideas expressed in other links around getting major exporters to cooperate more in the supply of grain that is produced (i.e. potentially restricting production).

A couple of restrictions on your ideas.

1) The customer is going to get more and more specific with their requests for quality, delivery commitments. Your success will be based on meeting these needs better than anyone else.

2) Risk management will become more important.

3) Provide better signals to people in the value chain so that value is accurately reflected to farm families and they are able to participate in the form of better prices as well as moving up the chain to enjoy some of the benefits of further processing (being it feeding livestock or processing food/industrial products or whatever).

4) Trust relationships can be established in the agricultural industry such that business can occur in a more efficient manner and people can feed comfortable that they are getting their share of the revenue pie.

Thoughts.

[TOM4CWB]

Good idea Charlie!

How about a contact, with a locked in profit margin, identity preserved, assured delivery, picked up at my bin!

This is my HEAR canola contract through CanAmera, avaliable today.

But why do Wheat and Barley growers have to wait ten years?!

[Hopalong]

Wonder if Charlie and Tom still follow Agriville? Guess Tom does.
Nice to hear from early posters now and then.

[bucket]

Our discussion to date have been good but have focused on problems in the current system. Just to get discussion going in a more positive vein, what would an optimum grain marketing system look like in ten years. Maybe to put things in another way, you are a wizard with a magic wand and with the touch of the wand/a few magic words, you could change the current pricing/marketing system anyway you want to something you think would work better.

An example would be a lot of the ideas expressed in other links around getting major exporters to cooperate more in the supply of grain that is produced (i.e. potentially restricting production).

A couple of restrictions on your ideas.

1) The customer is going to get more and more specific with their requests for quality, delivery commitments. Your success will be based on meeting these needs better than anyone else.

2) Risk management will become more important.

3) Provide better signals to people in the value chain so that value is accurately reflected to farm families and they are able to participate in the form of better prices as well as moving up the chain to enjoy some of the benefits of further processing (being it feeding livestock or processing food/industrial products or whatever).

4) Trust relationships can be established in the agricultural industry such that business can occur in a more efficient manner and people can feed comfortable that they are getting their share of the revenue pie.

Thoughts.

my thoughts and questions on your points

1. Quality isn't an issue ...2 or better red lentils and peas....3Cwad is now the grade to beat and no protein premiums. Delivery ....look at the boats waiting and the space in the system....but that should be all readily available to help producers make decisions....it isn't ....
No protein discounts or premiums can be signed with contracts....that would be nice and effective tool for producers

2. Risk management from who? The market ...we are now fully US exchange based for prices without the adhoc top up that our closest competitor has ...along with every other country that trades grain internationally.

3. Another phrase for transparency and accountability???? transparency leads to accountability....those responsible for the **** ups want no part of accountability.

4. The leeches can't feed off the host forever.


And finally the graincos have it good that farmers want to build the storage for the world for them....not so in the states.

Commercially the capacity has not kept up with the production increases....that has to be addressed.

[errolanderson]

Welcome back Charlie and Tom! . . . . hummm 10 years from now . . .

Dare say; the world may be still trying to recover from a severe recession / depression. A huge changing-of-guard may have taken place. The make-up of the S and P 500 index may be totally changed. We are in for a massive economic shake-up (IMO).

What I see is change, big change in global power shift, corporate structure and consumer attitude toward debt.

As a Calgarian, that is a concern should Calgary be awarded the 2026 winter games . . . Is it an economic injection or crippling for taxpayers as revenues potentially plunge?

[wd9]

It would seem not much has changed in the last 17 years. Errol, those posts are from 2001.

[Klause]

This thread is from 17 years ago...

[bucket]

At least my points are still valid...and highlights nothing has changed with the transition to an "open" market....

[bigzee]

I’m concerned what’s going to happen next year not ten years from now. We are being taking advantage more than ever in every part of the ag sector. Grain companies, retailers, machinery dealerships all say their margins are so small but they continue adding to their facilities. They are all crooks but we all get sucked in to their propaganda.
We have gone overseas to teach these other countries how to farm, which has now caused world production to rise at record levels. Demand has no dried up due to this. We are in a “take it or leave it” position. We can lock the bins and do whatever it takes to make a point to het higher prices, but sorry it’s not going to work. Farmers have locked bins on red lentils for 2-3 years, what’s happening with prices today.
There’s no accountability in this industry, it just a bunch of excuses. I’m not sure what we are going to have to do to exist in years to come, or is it even worth trying??

[errolanderson]

17 years ago, that’s hilarious . . . maybe Charlie P will come out of agriville retirement?

But’s lets continue with this discussion of 10 years forward . . . .

[bucket]

I’m concerned what’s going to happen next year not ten years from now. We are being taking advantage more than ever in every part of the ag sector. Grain companies, retailers, machinery dealerships all say their margins are so small but they continue adding to their facilities. They are all crooks but we all get sucked in to their propaganda.
We have gone overseas to teach these other countries how to farm, which has now caused world production to rise at record levels. Demand has no dried up due to this. We are in a “take it or leave it” position. We can lock the bins and do whatever it takes to make a point to het higher prices, but sorry it’s not going to work. Farmers have locked bins on red lentils for 2-3 years, what’s happening with prices today.
There’s no accountability in this industry, it just a bunch of excuses. I’m not sure what we are going to have to do to exist in years to come, or is it even worth trying??

good points we are sliding into the soviet era of farming in Canada ....not so much state controlled but corporate controlled....but the real farmers are disappearing and saying **** it...

the educated farmers that I call "cargill's *******" wait to be told when and how to farm with the machinery the farmers provide.
They get told to spray fungicides whether they need it or not ...good for the input supplier ...but the guy spraying doesn't know better...his gross revenue is great but he is a margin farmer...

[foragefarmer]

Errol how many years have you been posting the same lines over and over again about the financial collapse of the world?

Recessions are a given, if you type it as long as you have been posting this you will be able to say one year down the road, see I told you so! Have you followed your own advise for the last 10 years?


Charlie your back, but weren't you on the ban wagon that once the CWB is gone that all your 1, 2, 3, 4 points would be all answered?

Now your rewriting it again

[FarmJunkie]

Easy. Pay us more money for our product so we don’t have to subsidize society forever.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I'm just shocked to learn that 17 years ago posters used the commodity marketing forum to discuss marketing and offer constructive forward looking solutions. Not even a mention of global warming, football, or alcoholic drinks.

[ianben]

Hi, I thought Charlie was back for a moment. I remember this post, trying to get discussion away from CWB.

I thought at the time by now farmers would use the internet more and be better marketers, but nothing has really changed and now I am not sure it can.

The problem is the weather, looks like you guys are really having it bad at the moment.

In the last 17 years I have tried to produce what our market wants, malt barley, milling oats, and specialty canola all on contracts but half the time due to the weather they do not make the grade.

The next bit is quite simple really, if it is not what they want they will not take it. They are not screwing me just down to the weather.

So here in UK not much has changed since 2001 and even with brexit and removal of subsidies unless we get better at weather forecasting I see little change in the next 10 years.