Pricing new crop (Non board)

[Ron]

anybody price new crop canola yet? I have seen 8.25 for Nov delivery and took a 10% piece of my expected production. I sure hope it is the worst sale of the year but I have sold way more canola for $7 than I have for $9
Feed barley at 2.90 Nov almost made me want to grow some.

[JohnKenneth]

for what it's worth my target for the first 20% of new-crop canola is $8.50/bu. don't argue with selling a bit already though, especially if you're so lucky as to have the seed!

one thing i am critical of though is the specialty oil programs for 2007. any coincidence they're all out earlier and higher-premiumed than normal? i think not. with so much potential for high-yielding conventional prices why bother? higher costs, higher quality risks, lower yields in some cases and delayed delivery. no thanks unless the premiums about double.

interesting to see some companies have increased the premiums for 2007 already since these programs were first released. seems to me it's a suckers game to sign up now - let them buy these acres later on like all the other crop buyers are going to have to.

[wd9]

Actually JohnK, it is more demand driven than anything. News like Taco Bell going to specialty oils and transfat elimination solutions for baking and processing are driving the demand and the price.

[cottonpicken]

My target is 12$ minimoum.

[JACKFLASH]

cottonpickin:

Why would you throw that out there?
Really!

[cottonpicken]

You dont believe me?
I'll assume your not aware of what the rest of the commodities sector has done.
50% in a 11 month time frame is very acheivable in this current environment.
Goto barcharts and look up copper,gold,oil,sugar,n.gas,o.j(new all time high),uranium,etc,etc.
Or dont i dont care.

[wedino]

I don't get it. How does copper,gold,oil,sugar,n.gas,o.j(new all time high),uranium,etc,etc. relate to Canola?

[cottonpicken]

Absolutly,positivly,100% connected,one can NOT move without the other,just like the in 70's.
The big money is moving into tangibles.
I wont get into the reasons why.

[JACKFLASH]

cottonpicken:

In Jim Roger's Hot Commodities book. He talks about the very same occurance. But maybe not at such unpresidented levels.
Stuff like that would set the world on it's ear.

[Pulseman]

All related on two settings: A) yields in AUS and Europe, B) high crude oil.

This, B) makes us (farmers) the focus of the world, believe it or not!!!

Two scenarios: 1. oil stays above US60 and compared to the 70s when it was a supplier driven shortage, this seems possible, cause we have a user driven high oil price, we will see high values for our commodities with spreads into all commodities, cause what is high in price will be grown, hence other commodities will be lower produced, hence prices for thus have to come up too, slower and with delay but they need to move!

2. Oil goes back to US 20-30 (don't forget it has happend before, but is today unlikely, then our commodities will drop too.

[cottonpicken]

Actually jim is more bullish than that.
From 71-73 wheat jumped 400%!
400%!
400%!
400%!
Why is crude 60$?
Ever here about the 5 cent chocolate bar wars of 1945?What's a chocolate bar now?
Same reason-purchasing power of the dollar.

[nw9flynn]

I agree with your logic CP, but still, history says that 8.50 is a good price. And only locking in 10% of your production is very reasonable. If we find out that you are right and $12/bu is possible why not take a position with some out of the money calls to replace the 10% of n/c sales?

[wedino]

Do you "walk the walk", CP? If so you must be big time long canola, to mention only one commodity.

[cottonpicken]

Canola is not the most undervalued commoditie imo so i dont have a position.
If your talking history yes 8.50 is a good price for the past 22 year bear market but the bear is now dead.
if your happy with 8.50 good do it its your choice.
I would recommend reading tom's oct 18 post"is it time to start selling 07 canola"
Remember marketing mistakes take profit right off the top.

[crusher]

I reread Tom's post - interesting!