Pricing new crop (Non board)

[cottonpicken]

Actually jim is more bullish than that.
From 71-73 wheat jumped 400%!
400%!
400%!
400%!
Why is crude 60$?
Ever here about the 5 cent chocolate bar wars of 1945?What's a chocolate bar now?
Same reason-purchasing power of the dollar.

[nw9flynn]

I agree with your logic CP, but still, history says that 8.50 is a good price. And only locking in 10% of your production is very reasonable. If we find out that you are right and $12/bu is possible why not take a position with some out of the money calls to replace the 10% of n/c sales?

[wedino]

Do you "walk the walk", CP? If so you must be big time long canola, to mention only one commodity.

[cottonpicken]

Canola is not the most undervalued commoditie imo so i dont have a position.
If your talking history yes 8.50 is a good price for the past 22 year bear market but the bear is now dead.
if your happy with 8.50 good do it its your choice.
I would recommend reading tom's oct 18 post"is it time to start selling 07 canola"
Remember marketing mistakes take profit right off the top.

[crusher]

I reread Tom's post - interesting!

[rain]

OK we now know futures risk, the chart readers say $12.00/bushel. cottenpicken what is the basis risk? Or does anyone worry about basis anymore?

[cowman]

cottenpickin: You might not want to include natural gas as an example? It sure has taken a beating in the last week? Down from $8.72/mmbtu to $7.42 this AM? All the analysists say its going lower, depending on how warm the winter is? Last December gas prices were $15.70 mmbtu!
The oil patch is really slowing down. The drilling estimates are way, way down? Gas drilling is coming to a screeching halt! In the second and third quarter of 2007 there basically won't be any NG wells drilled in Alberta, certainly not in the coalbed or shallow gas fields?