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    #61
    Always good to have a poker player partipating in the forum. You pays your money and you takes your chances. Can't criticize you for because everyone has that right. You have to be prepared for the downside which means lots of equity. If you don't have the equity, you are playing russian roulette.

    I hear good business sense from parsley and northfarmer. Capture pricing opportunites when available and develop markets that pay higher than commodity values. My experience is that people who follow both practices live with less strain in their lives (the most important factor) and make more money in the long term.

    Comment


      #62
      cottonpicken,

      I won't make any more personal posts(I usually try to avoid them but the jolly season tricked me), about feasting on the 10lb lobster, (it's bound to make some folks downright nastier), and if I were you,(I hope I'm not being too bold, here) I'd avoid posting right after your dog usually bites you.

      I'll try to stick to commenting on what I've learned and observed after 39 years of farming.

      This is what successful multinational feed mills like Cargill, SWP, Agricore, ADM, etc. taught me......(here it comes again)....they bypass Board Marketing and pooling and put more money in their pockets.

      I want to put more money in my pocket.

      I want to bypass Board pooling and marketing just the same as the CWB has encouraged and facilitated the Multis to do.

      The CWB, with your money, set up a special program so the Multis could bypass the CWB!

      That is the main message I have always advanced...... get more PROFIT from the GRAIN I grow and I'll continue working towards getting more profit from grain.

      I'll leave it up to you to worry about your prices. Your neighbor's prices.

      You might work on getting the CWB to change/set world prices.


      Parsley

      Comment


        #63
        Cottenpicken, why if Northfarmer is pricing into 08 bad marketing, if he's pricing profit, sounds smart to me.

        Comment


          #64
          HOLLY SMOKEY

          You are all way to concerned about the dead horse in the room that is taking the constant beatings.Look up,way up at the elephant standing beside you.The cwb doesnt matter.Droughts dont matter.Global liquidity and return are the order of the day.The world is NOT small its HUGE.

          Charlie do you know what companies that forward sell their products at a set price only to have the price of said product explode are called.They are called underwater hedge book basket cases.Traders shun and laugh at them.Same goes with farming companies.

          Comment


            #65
            Amazing how a discussion can end up going off in many directions from where it started. Two comments. As long as producers are forced to participate in an organization that they don't want to be part of, they have every right to criticize the operation of that organization. Two Like many producers I'm tired of all the arguments regarding studies. The important part is what I receive in my pocket. If the CWB wants to hang it's hat on it's performance in the feed barley market compared to the open market, I think it's in big trouble. If the CWB wants to hang it's hat on it's performance in the malt barley market this year then I also think it's in trouble.

            Comment


              #66
              Craig,

              I second your motions.

              I believe the CWB is trying to distract people ... it's not all that hard sometimes... from the bottom line issue.

              Does our present CWB system actually maximise our returns from grain prices?

              I appreciate CP... and don't think anyone is smart for standing on a railway track infront of a freight train going 60mph. The CWB just did this with our Malt barley... and sold it without the specific permission to actually sell it. Some sales right out into the 07 crop?

              History Lesson

              Shades of 1947... where the CWB sold grain ahead of the gov. permission... and then the gov. of the day had to cough up either the grain or the money if they did not keep the single desk?

              Comment


                #67
                CPicken...i hope to sell the much larger balance of my 07 canola for more than a profitable price...I hope for that every year....but starting at a profitable price and supporting the cash flow needs of my cash flow hungry operation has allowed me to go from growing 80 acres of canola twenty years ago to growing 3000 acres in 2007.....

                I have also been around long enough to see the commodity cycles and have well read Rogers et al...but...and long enough to have also have been burnt holding on and going long in that "huge" global market.....

                but the point I was trying to make, irrespetive of the prices I sell my commodity for, was that i can forward sell/or not such commodities in a transparent liquid market freely and at my own discretion, ie. the canola and oilseed markets...but not my wheat...and the rapid growth and expansion of this market without the monopsonic interference of the CWB....this suggests that the sky will not fall.....

                I only critize and judge the CWB, not the individual posters, we should all have respect for others opinions and I do....

                Comment


                  #68
                  northfarmer,

                  You've clearly identified the problem that we have to repair:

                  "i can forward sell/or not such commodities .... the canola and oilseed markets...but not my wheat"

                  We can't even look at the elephant until we can get out from under the dead cow.

                  Parsley

                  Comment


                    #69
                    Northfarmer,

                    Isn't it interesting that the CWB can and is forward selling your wheat... but you can not!

                    Who actually owns your wheat?

                    Comment


                      #70
                      To forward sell your wheat see:

                      MGEX
                      KCBOT
                      CBOT

                      I use a broker to forward sell wheat and canola futures. I try stay away from defered delivery contracts, as most companies dont pay gains should I need to buy out the contract, or re-place a hedge.

                      Parsley: I was reading an article in one of the farm papers where Joe Janzen of the WCWGA was quoted as saying older farmers cannot compete with someone of his youth and higher education (M.SC Ag Econ). What say you?

                      I think your 39 years of farming experience is worth a lot more than a masters degree, after all, why are Ag Econ professors with PhD's not farming?

                      Comment


                        #71
                        From The people I know personally who have been there Cuba is not the same place as CP was talking about.Bottom line is Cuba has fences keeping people in,And the U.S has fences keeping people out.When it comes right down to it the people who work at the 5star resorts have a standard of living far below what we consider poor.Why do people risk death to leave that place if it is such a wonderful country.

                        Comment


                          #72
                          The cwb mandate is to "return all grain sales proceeds, LESS MARKETING COSTS to producers.

                          I have e-mailed my director, the cwb, and my mp, demanding a rebate on my grain sold, which has this NON_MARKETING cost tacked onto it. So far no one has had the guts to respond in one week. I let it be known I will not give up on this rebate, which also includes I must mention, a rebate for money spent on lawyers and court costs to fight Minister Strahl's effort in trying to limit the board from self promotion. That which the lefties call a 'gag order'.

                          We who want freedom must keep the heat on these poor "stressed" WESTERN cwb employees.

                          Can anyone here explain how the above are marketing costs? The cwb is obviously trying to find me an answer, and it's taking them some time!

                          Comment


                            #73
                            The cwb mandate is to "return all grain sales proceeds, LESS MARKETING COSTS to producers.

                            I have e-mailed my director, the cwb, and my mp, demanding a rebate on my grain sold, which has this NON_MARKETING cost tacked onto it. So far no one has had the guts to respond in one week. I let it be known I will not give up on this rebate, which also includes I must mention, a rebate for money spent on lawyers and court costs to fight Minister Strahl's effort in trying to limit the board from self promotion. That which the lefties call a 'gag order'.

                            We who want freedom must keep the heat on these poor "stressed" WESTERN cwb employees.

                            Can anyone here explain how the above are marketing costs? The cwb is obviously trying to find me an answer, and it's taking them some time!

                            Comment


                              #74
                              BennyHin:

                              Suggest you be careful with your “forward selling” – there are youngsters in the room listening. And we older folks need to provide good modeling for them!

                              Yes, you can sell wheat futures. But be very careful if you think this is forward selling the wheat in your bin or has anything to do with managing the price risk. If you sell futures thinking you are “forward selling”, you’ve just double sold – cuz the CWB is going to – or has already – sold the same wheat for you.

                              Since your wheat is tied up with CWB ribbons, selling any futures outside of the CWB programs is really just speculating – cuz your wheat marketing is already done.

                              Think of it this way: will your shorting MGEX wheat futures compensate you for poor CWB marketing? It might, and then again it might not – there is no correlation at all.

                              Comment


                                #75
                                Chuckchuck:
                                Apologies for taking so long to comment on your Dec 27th posting......

                                You say: “One has to wonder what kind a business person would make decisions without considering a full range of information and anlysis on any subject?”

                                The irony of this statement in support of the latest CWB-funded “study” is that the “study” actually does the same thing that you “wonder” about; it came to conclusions without understanding its subject.

                                The authors accept a previously flawed study – the KFT 1996 study – as gospel when it states that CWB grain cost less to market than non-CWB grain. (REAL data, current data, proves otherwise.) (FWIW – A number of years ago Dr. Kraft shared with me his feeling that the comparison wasn’t as “sound” as he would have liked….)

                                At the same time, they criticize other studies that do not support the CWB – without understanding them. For example, the following is a passage from the "study" that criticizes the Sparks Barley Study of 2003:

                                “Sparks contends that CWB barley prices in Red Deer AB are much lower than they are in the open-market prices (at times more than $1 per bushel lower). If this is true, we question why feedlots will not buy more barley from the CWB until arbitrage occurs between the CWB and the open-market barley prices.”

                                Schmitz, Schmitz and Gray clearly either did not read the Sparks study very well or did read it, but chose to misrepresent it anyway. The Sparks study was very clear – it took the CWB offshore selling prices (basis fob Vancouver) and adjusted (backed off) to places like Red Deer. These values were then used to compare to the local feed market prices. This was comparing CWB OFFSHORE selling prices – net to the farmer – to local non-CWB market prices, also net to the farmer. In no way was it indicated or suggested that the CWB was selling barley in Red Deer at those prices! (The comparison showed that the CWB was – year after year – selling barley offshore for much less than the domestic market was paying; the question that needs answering is “WHY?”)

                                This is an example of a closed-minded group of academics CHOOSING to misrepresent a reasonable COMMERCIAL (NOT ACADEMIC) analysis solely in the interests of promoting the CWB. (Being academics whose work is shrouded in theory, perhaps they didn't understand commercial analysis that is based on no models, no theories - just real dollars and sense.)

                                So, Chuckchuck, you say “One has to wonder what kind a business person would make decisions without considering a full range of information and anlysis on any subject?”

                                I concur and will add “One has to wonder what kind of business person would make decisions with a closed mind concerning their sources of information?”

                                Embracing this study without a critical review is nothing short of stupid.

                                Comment

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