drought in australia?

[Ron]

Is the drought in australia over? Just wondering as I heard a theory about what would happen if it repeated this year (sounded like cottonpicken wrote the speech, $20 wheat etc.)
If Aus had a decent crop last year how much lower would prices have been?
Hopefully someday we can all get good crops and prices at the same time.

[charliep]

No direct answer to your question other than to highlight the impact of the Aussie. Had a good conversation with a friend who had just got back from Australia about the drought and impact in some areas.

Next year. Hard to say. Northern hemisphere crops doing well. A round of super cold temperatures would impact all of Europe but has to happen. Won't pretend to say I know what will happen with Northern hemisphere spring wheat crops or 2007 southern hemishere crops.

The demand is the biggest issue around oilseeds and feedgrains. Not the same buzz in wheat - population is the driver of increased consumption and that is 1 % a year with many not able to buy additional food. Wheat will come along for the ride with other crops but will not be the driver unless a real weather issue occurs.

Others thoughts/forecast on wheat markets?

[cottonpicken]

A drought will not be the main reason for 20$ wheat.

[brian99]

I think wheat could be a touch lower next year, barring production problems. Everyone seems so bullish it's scary. Corn is showing huge demand, and barley should follow. Corn going up should drag beans so there should be good opportunity to price canola. Wheat? World acres always seem to crawl out of the woodwork when prices are good. Any notion what these acres do the rest of the time? Why don't they impact other markets like they do to wheat? Charlie, any ideas?

[furrowtickler]

I doubt we will ever see $7 dollar wheat let alone $20 under our current system. It disturbs me greatly with the direction of the wheat market over the last 6-8 months and the final pmt's for last years wht. Even this years wht pmt's have a long long way to go.
One question I have is who in the world has good quality hrsw available for export besides Canada? Measnor was fired for several good reasons.

[malleefarmer]

Drought is no way finished in aust.
Good rains in april may for planting follwed by rain in growing season april to oct are then need so its may june before aust is out of the woods drought wise and yields wont materialize until aug/sept if weather is kind.
My piece of dirt we were down 50 to 60% on average but many areas didnt harvest.
$20 wheat nobody could afford it.....