Feed prices compared to the CWB

[vvalk]

To all the CWB promotors. Explain to me why I can get more in the FEED market for #1 red spring 11.5% protein and less and #2 red spring 13.5% of less. Same goes for durum. Barley comparison isn't even close so no need to even talk about it. If this is not proof anough as to how bad the CWB markets your grain then this whole issue has become a "religious" argument to you. Just believe in the CWB on faith alone and keep the blinders on.

[ProFarmer]

also you can only deliver 40% of your 80% and get paid Dec 2007 in a maybe final payment if the board hasn't lowered the pro down anymore. I guess it depends on how many bonuses the employies get.

[SASKFARMER3]

CWB supporters have blinders on. Example Christmas with the in-laws, I was the bad guy again stating that the CWB is a joke and should be dropped.
Lets explain some more the in-laws are in their late 60 made a piss pot of cash in late 70S early 80s don't like the new farmers they would like every thing to be as it was before, have a drink with local elevator agent get a 2 when every one else is a 3, black book with over grain deliveries. Malt barley 50 bushel but get malt. etc etc.
This is what Iam up against, but explain that I delivered 100% of my feed barley for $3.10 a bushel payment in 1 weeks 100% payment CWB malt is $1.50 payment and maybe a year from now a final payment and think they'll get what I got HA!
We need a vote and Ill put up my 7000 against their 1100 any day.

[craig]

Just saw some interesting info comparing prices from a year ago. Feedgrains and canola up between 40 to 50 % U.S. wheat futures up between 30 to 35%. #1 HRS wheat Pro up 6% #3 HRS wheat Pro up 25 %.

[bgmb]

Cash feed barley prices have gone from 1.80 in mid september to 3.00 now(in my area), the average is somewhere between the two values. The purpose of the cwb isn't to be a speculator and try to hit the top of the market. They shoot for an average price and that's what the pros reflect.
The bottom line is when prices rise the pool looks bad and when prices fall the pool looks good.

I hate pooling with a passion and am a supporter of the ppos and any other tool that gives us more freedom to price and deliver our grain.

[bgmb]

Yah your right the pools always look better when the markets drop except the problem is that the people not in the pool capitalize on high markets and people in the pool see the markets fall and think there still going to fetch what the CWB promised them.Except they find out when they get their final payment that the pool is subject to the markets to.In the fall of 2002 I had all 3cwrs that the local hog barn was offering 5.00 for.
but I decided I would stay in the pool because the pro was around 6.00 However buy the time final payments came out I ended up around 4.50.A good price now means alought more than a high PRO promising more money later.I have seen it too many times.Why is CWRS PRO only up 6%.The wheat markets have had a pretty big correction and I bet the CWB has a lot of sales to make and has run out of time.For people in the pool accounts the best case scenario would be mediocre to sucky.

[bgmb]

Craig where is Benny Hinn to respond to your findings.It is amazing to me how these differences are realities and people still believe the CWB gets them a "premium".

[BennyHin]

Craig and NFU're, sorry for the long delay in response, but I have work to do on the farm, no time for this everyday.

I read that stat in Morris Dorrishs rag also. His paper is about as informative as the Art Bell radio show (you know the one about conspiracy theories, UFO's and Boogyman).

Anyways, the PRO is a averaged price return over a one year period, Wheres as Morris' stats are hand picked.

Since you like referring to US prices, tell us how much the US gulf and PNW prices changed in the same period. Where is the US protein premiums.. Why are the US wheat exports down from last year?

Could it be the wheat market doesn't trade at a 1:1 ratio to canola?

What are the intended seeded acreage for wheat in 2007 globally?

I'd suggest dumping Morris's tabloid rag and subscribe to real marking newsletter,

[vvalk]

BennyHin

You do not want to compare PNW prices for US wheat to CWB PROs. PNW for at least 5 months was $250 or better for LOW protein wheat. Who cares about protein premiums on top of that. Ontario producers have sold SOFT wheat for $233 a ton and at one point were getting $6 a bushel. We would be getting $4 a bushel for barley and $5 for feed wheat if the CWB did what it says it can do. Do you have any idea how much CWB grain is going to the feed market. Its now starting to drive down bis on feed.

[BennyHin]

PNW (Bids) Prices last week:

Soft wheat: $205 CDN / Tonne
HRS low pro: $225 CDN/ Tonne
DNS 14.0%: $236. CDN /tonne

CDN:=1.155 US

OWB recent soft wheat prices just over $200 /tonne

Walk: Please ensure you are comparing apples to apples. Are quoting bid or offer values, and are they basis clean grain, fob, or track PNW?

Please requote all your prices worked back to inland Minot North Dakota (using US car rates)

Also, please post your data sources, i'd like to look at them one weekend evening.

[charliep]

http://www.ams.usda.gov/LSMNpubs/PDF_Daily/DGR.pdf

I'll post another good source of US prices. You can help us understand the differences between the dpc and fpc/pro prices.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/

[vvalk]

DNS 14% is the same as our HRWS 13.5%. Why then using last weeks prices are PNW prices $15 higher then our PRO. That would be after a 35 cent drop in the market. WE do not need to bring it back to North Dakota, PNW and Vancouver is the same thing. I do not understand, the CWB can not even get you higher prices then the feed market. Why keep defending them especially this year. Just admit they are doing a horrible job.

[vvalk]

BeenyHin

I think you just made my point.

DNS 236 at exchange rate of 1.155 should be 1.175 which means last weeks bid was $241.
Last weeks prices are 70 cents off the high and even with some gains in the exchange since the high you can see where the PRO should be.
Why is the DPC always higher then the PRO and by a long shot. DPC are inland prices and PRO's are based Vancouver. CWB grain since June has benn the cheapest wheat in the world.

[TOM4CWB]

Walk,

I have a hard time arguing with your logic... if it waddles, squalks, flies, eats, and ____s like a duck... it is a duck.

Joke time!

The new Soviet General stationed in the Ukraine... in the communist erra, has a problem.

Commander: I have a problem, I have discovered mice in my office.

Secretary: Sir, I think I have a practical solution I learnt from our previous Commander... it was very effective at getting rid of problem pests!

Commander: What was this solution?

Secretary: I will simply declare this office a "Collective Farm".

Commander: Why will this help?

Secretary: Half of them will starve to death... and the other half will run away!

Near the end of the Soviet Union... they had a big problem. With all the summits going on, people in the Soviet Union could see how much more prosperous the west was than they were. Some parents had to line up in the queue, for 12 hours to get bread... and the folks in East Germany watched West German tele... what were they to do?

Two freinds were talking... one says to the other... I hear it is going to snow tomorrow!

The other says... well I am not going to queue for that!

Comrad 1: How do you know Moscow was your freind?

Comrad 2: They send Tanks!



One of the most amazing things about the Soviet Union was this: Considering all the bad social, economic, spiritial, and practical problems this system had...

It was totally astounding how long the Soviet Union lasted!

[TOM4CWB]

Walk,

I think you will find the DPC is the same Port pricing point base as the other PPO's and PRO.

The DPC "discovery" points are claimed to be an average collected by the CWB across the northern US interior.

Kind of strange why one price would apply... when there is a spread of normally at least $.50/bu in the price point collection area. Further... your point on PNW pricing vs. Vancouver/Rupert port position is correct. The US has a $15/t disadvantage to CDN freight to get to port position.

THe CWB keeps the CDN benefit... and gives the lower interior US price.

Joke Time!

Gorbachov was at a Summit and tells this joke!

A Citizen is in the queue and getting very frustrated waiting for bread. There was another 10 hours to wait, he threw his hands in the air and said he was going to go and kill Gorbachov as he left.

Two hours later he returns rather sheepishly. A neighbour citizen said: Well, did you kill him?

He said: NO THE QUEUE was much longer over there!