new crop price projections

[JohnKenneth]

here's what i read into grainguy's estimates:

Canola - 400 to 415 futures, so $8.50-$9/bu depending on basis
Western Bly - below $3.70/bu
HRS - flat so ~$4.50-5.
Yellow Peas - $5.00 to $5.50 mark.

i've been spending all my afternoons lately crunching these kinds of numbers through my cop spreadsheets, so it's great to see the posts.

an earlier thread had green lentils at 16 cents/lb. new-crop mustard's now out at 22 cents for yellow and canary 18. ethanol plants offering production contracts for feed wheat at up to $3.85/bu delivered.

any other price ideas out there?

the marketing company i hire provides me their updated estimates for new-crop budgeting purposes monthly. fwiw today they're saying $8.50 canola, $3.50/bu barley, $4/bu feed wheat, 19-cent lentils, $5/bu peas, 26-cent kabulis, 16-cent desis, don't bother with red lentils or cwrs ($4.20), and durum at a $40/t premium to cwrs.

[mb_rancher]

What about Oats?

[mb_rancher]

John, the $3.50/bus barley, are they talking malt or feed??

[furrowtickler]

Oats FOB Saskatoon for fall are (I think) $2.45/bus
Canada Malt at the Crop Production show offering $3.60/bus next fall, while still in the pool

[furrowtickler]

John, the $3.50/bus barley, are they talking malt or feed??

[furrowtickler]

Sorry shouldn't have sent again.

[JohnKenneth]

they think the price of malt could be higher, but this price indication - for budgeting purposes - is dialed down a bit to account for the risk of the barley not getting selected. from their malt estimate, they also took off the interest cost of late delivery and payment so it's not exactly a forecast of the pro.

we're using $2.50/bu for oats for next year but i think they're going to raise it next month. things are getting very very bullish for old-crop in that market, and even though we all think oats acres are going up next year, we should get a couple chances to sell for $2.50/bu off the combine before harvest is through. we've done 10% there already.

[furrowtickler]

I think canola acres will not be up near as much(20%), just a number I heard floating around at the crop production show. High fert prices and a price 'recovery' in most other grains will keep a lid on canola acres. JMO

[bgmb]

I've priced 75 bu/ac of oats @ 2.43 off the combine. Think i will do 30-40% of my canola when it gets up over 8.00 off the combine.

[charliep]

Just a note that everyone needs to pay attention to today's USDA report. Bullish corn (lower US production/carrover). Decline production US soybeans somewhat optimistic but still lots around. Neutral wheat including the 10 % increase in 2007 winter wheat acres.

Corn limit up at the open this morning.

[cottonpicken]

I see oats up almost 6%.
Good job bg.

[Steve_Winkler]

Some excellent points as always on this forum and so nice to read and hear such optimism for prices in the upcoming crop year. The doom and gloom surrounding the ag industry for the past 7-10 years can really drag a guy down. Being a relatively young player in the grain farming business, there have been many days when I considered another career choice. So cheers to $6-$7 wheat, $3.70-$4.00 feed barley, and $9-$10 canola and beyond. It's long overdue for a price recovery and prolonged rally to come. Good marketing to all.

Steve