I have become increasing concerned about the impact the CWB is having on Non board grains. In a year when stocks are becoming tight or tighter in a lot of grains we usually see the senario where producers can easily stay with their rotation instead of jumping to what is perceived as a winner. Early planting indications are substantial increases in most non board grains and decreases in wheat plantings(HRS). With the poor performance of malt barley we can also expect an increase in feed. This has a huge impact on exportable amounts of grain. With our bio diesel and ethanol production in Canada still at a low level and the increased pressure on livestock feeders this could have huge implications next year.
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i find it interesting that some analysts are predicting a rise in wheat acres. my guys have it down 10%, which seems aggressive but why would i grow wheat after missing through the cwb the best prices available in 10 years, still not making any money on it, and being forced to sell through a company that won't even come pick it up?
with corn so high, domestic feed prices should continue moving up for the rest of this year but at some point, even guys who rarely do the math are going to see how much more the pig barn next door will pay them for that fancy milling wheat they need to get paid for, and it's all going to hit the system, and limit price gains in what should be an ongoing bull market. frustrating and confusing indeed.
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