Do We Grow Anything Other Than Wheat and Market It Through the CWB

[charliep]

An attempt to get discussion going around something other than CWB crops (discussion around how we achieve higher values is allowed). As a warning, any mention of CWB will mean the encrypted bomb I have included in this message will destroy your computer with potential to injure anyone close by - just kidding.

New crop feedgrains - who will win the battle - the livestock feeder who wants to buy cheap or the barley producer who wants a maintain current prices with visions of Dec. prices in the heads.

Flaxseed - is this going to be the market surprise of 2001? Is linola a potential surprise for 2001 (non GMO so still has a fit into Europe)?

Oats - Will a low input crop (read low nitrogen user) be a profit producer?

Lentils - Are acres headed up or down. What acreage shifts will be occurring between large (lairds, small seeded (eston/milestone) and reds (crimson)?

Peas and chickpeas - How big an acreage increase? Will the markets be there to absorb the increased supplies?

Canola - How much is acreage going to drop? Will this impact prices? Is there opportunities in specialty canola that offer customers different oil traits?

Are there other alternatives farm managers should be looking at?

We only have a few participants in the written part. Lots of other people watch but don't participate. Are there some positive suggestions we can offer farm families in a tight financial situation to help them improve their profit in what is going to be a difficult year?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I think one of the reasons for the "hangup" on wheat is market conditions themselves.

With about 18% stocks to use in carryovers, everyone is looking for wheat to "drag us up out of the icy water and warm our exhausted bodies!"

But even how we feel is simply a matter of perspective. Many opportunities are avaliable, but just which one will be a dead end for my farm, and which one will help pay the bills!

Now these decisions are the ones we are responsible to make, when making our seeding intentions firm, as many are thinking about right now.

Which one is better or best?

That is a matter for each individual farm, and my secrets and helpful hints it looks like are someone elses disasters and failures!

What an interesting time we live in, but as I said earlier, it appears that wheat being the largest production grain, and with the most likelyhood of being short, we are most likely to talk about!

What do you think?

[charliep]

I agree wheat has the best fundamental outlook but that is not a guarantee of better prices in the coming year. I would stick with a crop rotation that has worked for my farm with modifications to reflect the current soil moisture conditions. If I shifted acres somewhat, it would be based on my budgets with realistic prices and yield expectations combined with a risk assessment of varying weather conditions.

The reason I put this item on is to find a balance between long term policy (will take a few years to bring about/won't make everybody happy) and positive actions/steps farm families can take in the next 3 months to help them through what is going to be a tough year. We have so much experience within the participants that can be shared.

Perhaps one of the ways we can help people (including those who just watch/don't participate) is some ideas that they can use to improve their bottom line. Everybody wants to hit the home run that will add a dollar or two per bushel - maybe not possible this year. I would like to get us thinking about little steps that maybe add a nickel to dimel/bu but when they are all added together added significant value to the bottom line/net income.

A challenge to all of us.

[rockpile]

To Charlie,
First of all, let me commend you for your fair, balanced, intelligent and well researched commentary. You are guilty of not picking sides in what is really an 'idealogical' debate and are focused on the bottom line. Good for you. Here are my thoughts after 29 years in this racket. Experience tells me that the best time to mess around with risky alternatives is when you have loose change in your pockets and can afford to take a beating and laugh it off. When times are tight, you have to look at what works for 'your' farm and control that which you can. For my part, I grew nothing by RSW last year and are the happier for it. We did all right, and kept our inputs in line with our expectations. Weather and soil have everything to say about this strategy. We intend the same thing this year. Control what you can, experiment when you can afford to. The biggest worry for 2001 is not commodity prices, but the lack of moisture.
Rockpile

[chas]

I have maintained a rotation of barley-canola-wheat-barley but found I was getting alot of leaf diaease in the cereals. So I switched to wheat, canola, wheat, peas the last half dozen years. I have fertilized beyond soil test recomondation and my land has really responsed with this and the pea rotation. I do not chase market prices and stopped using future prices because so much can happen in 6 months these days, why would anyone give their product up at these low prices so early.
Like you boys it looks like www (wall to wall wheat). But I would not bet against canola because of fertilizer cost. May be a small crop. Pulse crops could be a tough sell this trip. But like I say rotate and spread your eggs out. Its better for the soil. Chas
Freebird I thought you boys had lots of snow are you talking dry already. We have had no snow at Camrose this winter but had fairly good moisture going into winter.

[parsley]

Survival Tips:
Charliep, you mentioned once about suggestions that could help farm families survive in these times. Maybe these could help.

Here are a few suggestions that might save a few dollars:

1. Plant a nitrogen-fixationg perennial crop on a piece of land that you have cropped for some time. Seed alfalfa, sainfoin, etc.with oats or barley as cover crop. A little later seeded to kill weed flush
Benefits:
-It will save buying fertilizer. Next few years, no fertilizer costs. - No chemical costs
It will improve your soil by adding nutrients from roots reaching deep into the soil
-Cash Rent out pasture, or hay the land until ready to work it up again
Disadvantages....Seed costs.

2. Clean your grain before marketing and sell the screenings. (The big companies clean all grain at port and make piles of money. ) Sell to livestock farms, feedmills etc.

3. Sell equipment you rarely use, or sell/trade 1/2 share to a neighbor .
4. Share-Load rail cars with your neighbor.
5. Negotiate with your banker, with the railroads, for all your loan, rsp rates etc. Be practical. he needs to make a dollar, but usually there is room for some dickering for a little better rate.
6. Treat your credit privileges with respect. It will be worth it's weight in gold.
7. Keep fit...your health is your best personal asset
Parsley

[parsley]

parsley - I commend you on providing some sound advice. Thanks for this contribution.

Tom