You wake up on March 31 and ...

[charliep]

You wake up on March 31 (could be another day) and you hear the results of the BARLEY (no other crop) plebescite.

Scenario 1 - The plebescite indicates western Canadian farmers want to market their barley in a open market fully including domestic human consumption and export. I will let you determine whether with a CWB alternative or not. What will be different? What are you likely to do differently?

Scenario 2 - The plebescite indicates they want to keep single desk status for BARLEY (not wheat) domestic human consumption and exports. The federal government says they will respect this. What is the CWB likely to do differently? Keeping all the political/policy stuff on the side, what will you do differently on the acreage, agronomics, marketing and pricing side of the BARLEY (not wheat) side of your business?

[AdamSmith]

Great question Charlie.

I’ve considered this for my very own operation. Most years I have some barley (3 or 4 quarters) 2006 was the first year in five or six where I never grew any barley. Reality is that the only major impact of a change will be within the malting side of barley with I would say better opportunities and a much clearer picture of what malt is worth. On the feed side I don’t see much change between what we have now and the way things would be after a change (open market).

I have 3 quarters pegged to grow barley on in 2007. I’m looking at growing Metcalf because I like to straight cut it and this variety has done well for me in the past. But I farm in SW MB which is the prime geographical area for the brewing companies to source their 6-row from (Anheuser-Busch) and I know that the current system under values the real value of six row malt barley, so it is here where a new opportunity may arise but I’m not sure I’ll know for sure if six row or two row is going offer me the highest returns in 07. It is here where I guess I will have to make a best guess and just go with it as best I can.

Advantages of two row are pretty attractive already especially as feed, but if the malt thing works out six row might be best.

If things don’t change (market system wise) I won’t even consider malt (two row or six row) Won’t even submit a sample because I know the domestic feed market suits my needs the best, period.

[silverback]

Scenario 1 - Open a beer and have some popcorn to go with it.

Scenario 2 - If this were to happen, I am fairly confident that Alberta farmers would not have voted this way. That being the case, I would begin organizing my friends and neighbors to lobby the Ab. gov't to get us out from under CWB control.

I would hope we will see how each province votes.

[silverback]

Sorry Charlie,

Scenario 2 - No malt barley, feed barley as needed. CPS wheat and canola for cash flow needs.

[Braveheart]

Scenario 1: Go long western barley futures on the open. Place order to sell as soon as market surges because futures could fall once the realization that barley acres could increase sets in. Book vacation with speculating profits. Later that evening have several drinks and possibly dance jig.

I would then phone my preferred grain co's to see what real malt barley bids would be if the Minister goes with choice decision. But, because there would still be too much risk (ie. gov't falls early, CWB supporters launch court challenges, malting co's not prepared for a new reality, etc.) for this year I would stick to original plans of only barley for silage.

Scenario 2: The area we farm in would become bilingual . . . English and Profanity. But, I would just shrug it off and make contingency plans which would only include barley for silage.

[Braveheart]

Mid East? As in Algeria? Or are you making terrorist links?

I've got to hand it to Gordon. He knows how to be entitled to his entitlements.

[cottonpicken]

And in my humble opinion that ed white is a shmuck.

[parsley]

Interesting...seems difficult to find out anything about this company.

The phone is a 514
The fax is a 204

Nothing much on the web about Eagle Sterling Co. Limited except it is listed as an accredited agency.

Directors?
Incorporation?

Would it be in Iranian language, maybe?

Any ideas?

Parsley

[Braveheart]

No ideas. But I do think it sounds verrry suspicious? And, highly unethical for a former commissioner to now be an accredited agent? This just begs for an investigation.

[Braveheart]

Charlie good question.

On our farm we currently have 10 quarters undecided to malt barley, or feed. If senario one is happen all 10 will be into malt. If scenario 2 is to happen all 10 will be into feed barley.

I've heard many guys on this site say dual marketers do have a choice.... that choice being don't grow Board grains. Allthough I don't agree with that statement, it isn't fair I can't grow Wheat or Malt without selling it through the CWB. This being said I ask all the Dual Market supporters this... Despite the result of this Pleblicite the CWB has stated they cannot function properly in a Dual Market System. How will they function if they don't have our grain to market??? What I'm saying is this. For the first time on our farms history, a farm that traditionally grows 2000 acres of Wheat/year, we will not be growing a acre, and if Malt Barley stays on with the Board, we won't grow any.

We have the power to squeeze them out.

Control Your Own Destiny, Or Someone Else Will!!