CWB PRO- SURPRISE COMING!

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Just throwing this out there before Pro's released this afternoon. With all the talk of change coming in the CWB with the barley plebiscite looming. Wouldn't it be prudent for the board to substantially raise the Pro's now, especially in malt barley and HRS wheat, in order to plant the seed of doubt. Lord knows they probably have the ability to.
Just making talk here.

[chaffmeister]

I'm gonna guess feed barley will be up $9.00 and malt will be unchanged.

[chaffmeister]

Oh yeah - and HRS wheat will be unchanged as well.

[charliep]

Small changes durum. $9/tonne higher on feed barley ("B" contract) - justified by the current market. No change malt barley.

Innovation on feed barley has come through grain company/CWB programs ($3/bu using a free 100 % EPO) - will be curious what happens here over the next month.

Malt barley - like a lump of coal in a Christmas stocking. Payments/prices should be better - why not? Starting to get wind of interesting new crop programs the maltsters are offering - don't know what the assumptions are on barley in the new year.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Same old, same old. Raise up only what does not matter. With barley at 170/mt spot and looking like $4/bu for june, july I don't think 9/mt feed barley increase matters. Looks like more wheat coming into domestic feed markets. We haven't shipped a kernel of wheat here south of Calgary.

[charliep]

Just as a note, the CWB historical pricing tables have been updated.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/

The winter wheat one is the most interesting when comparing the DPC, FPC and PRO. Winter wheat is worth the same as hard red spring when comparing DPC values. Not sure why.

[charliep]

IAMTHEMOLE

Good thing of the process is we live in Alberta. 6 row malt barley prices in Manitoba are between $2.82 and $2.92/bu plus what you can get on the different CWB programs and storage. My guess is the Manitoba feed market is $3/bu plus (particularly for malt quality). There is a customer right across the border who will pay more. Based on the Manitoba plebescite results, people are happy with this situation (except for those that voted for open market).

[ado089]

Who cares what the PRO is on feed barley, no one says you have to sell it to the board. As well before you say you could sell it south of the border for more lets not forget about the US tarrifs on feed grains which are in place to protect their domestic corn markets.

[parsley]

ado089,

I can sell barley domestically, but ONLY barley run through the Board can be exported.

[charliep]

There are no tariffs on barley (feed and malt) moving south or north of the 49 th. The only restriction (as Parsley points out) is the buyback/export licence for western Canadian barley being exported to the US.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

Charlie, Any idea where new crop malt pros will be for 2007-08? Should be well over 200/mt delivered coast.

[charliep]

Only caution is the Aussie is getting rain (still a long way from seeding) and Europe not likely to have a second disaster. Still too scared to forecast but will note what optimism I have may be based on stuff closer to home (continued decline US acres and less malt barley acres western Canada as guys push for higher yielding feed varieties/$3 plu DDC levels.

Will let you do your homework but one maltster offering close to a $4/bu (2 row) new crop guarantee on payments or a DDC if change occurs. Likely all (including exporters) will be working on interesting programs to attract your business.

[HFL]

I can't wait

[IAMTHEMOLE]

I agree. Expect to see some creative accounting by the malsters this year. Between competing for acres and general over disappointing returns this year, they should be aggressive.

[kamichel]

It is in my opinion that the pros are now over rated to help secure votes. My forecast is after the election that the pros will all drop. At CWB days the speakers admitted that they sold the barley too cheap before the real extent of the Austrailian drought was realized. And that they now need farmers to deliver, which is something that a lot of farmers are not doing. Another thing on CWRS wheat if one has an A series contract there is a 6 dollar per ton charge for less than 90 percent deliver, So I was told by my area rep.