malt barley PRO

[kamichel]

Could be another year like 02 03 when canadian maltsters were forced to import 100,000 tons of European malt for 6.56 per bushel because the CWB could not supply the good malt was going into local feed mills.

[kamichel]

Burbert, "Lets remember the PRO is not chiseled in stone, it will increase to pull barley from bins and out of the feeders hands".

Burbert so your saying the CWB does control prices, and will only pay for it when they see fit!!

I must be confused because I thought the Board had no control over prices they just market it for us. The world controls the price.

God you Single Desk Supporters are getting me more confused every day.

[lesm]

I was at the cwb meeting in saskatoon on jan 12/07. The CWB salespeople spoke about the the malt barley prices and said there was not much chance for a big increase in prices as they were heavily sold in April and May of 2006. It's amazing that these so called experts thought that ethanol production would have no impact on corn usage!!!

[craig]

Burbert
Your comments suggest you have little concept of this market. Producers of malt barley should be doing very well this year not just well. I'm not sure how your going to drag malt supplies out of the feed market when it's already coming out the back end of a steer. If the CWB had room to move on malt barley prices(Pro's) they needed to be doing it in the fall when producers hadn't yet decided to dump into the feed market.Reality is the CWB heavily forward sold into the market before the grain rally started to happen. So much for weather surveillance and market smarts. It's just the same in the wheat market. American producers got great prices for their wheat. Canadian producers got good prices relative to a year ago but hardly reflective of what the futures market offered. Good market opportunties don't come often and you need to be able to capitalize when they do. This year we have been able to do that with grains we can sell into the open market. Sadly not so in the grains we have to sell through the board.

[kamichel]

Caseman where approx. do you live that your feed price is so low? And I thought I had the lowest malt price!

[kamichel]

Caseman I also suggest to you to check out some feedmill prices and prices with brokers into lethbridge brokers can tell you where the demand is coming from. Often elevator bids are lower, but not all the time. Sometimes the brokers get better prices also because of backhauls of other products.

[Burbert]

snappy & craig Don't sell board grains if it doesn't work for you, diversify grow spices or exotic birds, or game ranch. Those ideas were professed by our Ag Dept a few years ago and are apparently roaring ahead full steam in the unfettered open market, ha ha.. (ginseng, elk antler, etc.etc..) Or better yet, sell into the open market that already exists. Craig, you would have us believe that all the barley, grown last year has/is already sold, and has already passed through beef, pigs, chickens, or the soup pot.
REALITY CHECK There is still barley out there to be had at the right price, lots of bins snowed in/not sold. Some of us backward banjo players, are set to take advantage of the current backward system, to make some money!! Surprise the cagey old birds are waiting to pick up the sc****s left on the table by the younguns... Does the CWB influence prices, worldwide,in a word yes. Still confused, maybe you are spending too much time hedging, putting, contracting, networking, chiseling, and establishing meaningful, honourable worthwhile relationships with mega corporate giants and politicos. Play with the bull boys, you'll soon get the horn!

[charliep]

Burbert

What you are saying is you have built up wealth after years of hard work and you can afford to take risk/postpone cashflow in a way that your neighbors can't.

If you were starting business today, with a $500,000 worth of debt and 1,000 acres of rented land, would your strategies work?

Don't know what this has to do with malt barley. Perhaps given the malt barley topic, would a new maltster locate in Alberta with a single desk seller? Why were 3 malt plants built across the border within trucking/rail distance of Canadian barley supplies?

[furrowtickler]

burbert, soo.. are you planning on holding your barley till aug/sept, or do tou think that the current PRO's will shoot ther moon? Those cagey old birds had better keep an eye on their germination. Malt has got a long, long way to go to even compete with current/future feed bids.

[craig]

Burbert.
The ability of the CWB to raise the PRO's on malt barley is dependent on getting enough barley from producers so that they can make sales in the current higher value market.What value is it to producers for the CWB to wait late in the crop season before raising the PRO. Catch 22. Can't attract barley supplies, can't increase the PRO's. You also seem smug in the fact that you are still sitting on your barley stocks. What you didn't tell us is where you plan to sell them. Odds are there is much better opportunity to capitalize in the open market. If you are planning to go into the malt barley pool it doesn't make much sense to be sitting on those supplies. They won't be worth any more if you deliver the first week of the crop year or the last.

[kamichel]

Caseman not sure if you are still watching this thread because you have not been messaging. But I have done some research.
2 row malt barley.
01 02 Jan to final down 14 cents.
02 03 Jan to final down 22 cents.
03 04 Jan to fianl up 07 cents.
04 05 Jan to fanal up 02 cents.
05 06 Jan to final no change.
I will add here that the last time the market rallied was in teh 02 03 period and the final took a big drop.
Over the 5 year period the loss from Jan to final is minus 5.4 cents. So for the CWB bulls the market past 5 years shows down not up.

[caseman]

I live about halfway between Regina and Saskatoon on hiway 11.

Can't haul to feedlot because I signed malt contracts last March and barley was accepted late August.

I have seen July barley at $3.14 non board but that has dropped back to about $2.80 -$2.90 now.

This spring I will grow barley again but will not sign any malt contracts. Will see what prices look like in September then decide to go malt or feed.

This spring will plant oats,flax,barley,canola,peas.

Scared of midge so there will be no durum. I am sick of CWB and their programs(EPO,s- costing me to get my own money.

25000 bushel of barley cost me$.054
cents per bushel at 90 percent EPO

[caseman]

comments on lots of barley in the bins still to satisfy the maltsters, well perhaps there is, was holding my feed back a bit longer for some higher prices. Yet my broker, (damn I use a broker and not the CWB) has told me the prices won't be going higher as he originally thought. As now high quality wheat is being dumped into the feed market as wht producers are seeing no movement of their #1 HRS. So as most producers know, cash flow for bill payment is needed, so they do what they have to. Funny the CWB doesn't step in and help these wheat producers out, opps, damn not the CWB fault its the rail roads and big bad multinationals fault, excuse my rant.

[Burbert]

erik, Did your broker also tell you that during the 07/08 crop year, farmers across Canada and the US, will plant a record crop/overproduce and there is/will likely to be a glut of grain on the market, by this time next year unless the weather plays a role. Prices, unfortunately will correct and we are back to the same old same old. Biofuel and China may pick up the slack though, so go for it, now is our time to really make a killing...... we are in the drivers seat. By the way our fees are going up to, due to challenges we are encountering in the modern business world. Check the first 4 letters in the word broker, see what they spell.

[Burbert]

Burbert, you are wrong about over producing within a year.

What does brok mean???