Not your average recession . . . .

[biglentil]

The weaponization of the dollar is what has fostered the alternative system of trade that the Brics have implemented. Doubling down on that weaponization is not the way forward imo. The problem with picking fights is sometimes you lose.

[wrongway]

Well Gold is up 40% on the year in CAD, Bitcoin up 110% on the year. The "Cash is King" narrative once again a sucker's bet. We are in stagflation just as I called if you look back at my posts from years ago. Now what's to come? More of the same only on steroids. We don't just have WW3 brewing, many are saying it has begun. Its an inflationary superstorm. The BRICS nations(members making up over half the worlds pop) are engaged in dedollarization at the fastest rate in history. Every dip in gold is being bought by the East. Printing presses are going brrrrrr all around the world. Along with war spending and destruction of infrastructure demand for strategic resources and hard methods of settlement will only increase.

Rates are going to have to rise in a futile attempt to try and maintain the purchasing power of the dollar. However this drives up the cost on debt in a heavily indebted nation like ours. We are beyond the rubicon, every new dollar of debt has less of a marginal benefit to gdp than it once did. More and more debt is needed to service the interest payments on existing debt and keep the bubble economy afloat. Central banksters backs are against the wall. This problem didn’t just manifest it's 50 plus years in the making since the elimination of the sound monetary system of Bretton Woods. There are no easy solutions, things could get real very quick, prepare accordingly.

mostly agree but a couple points
1. on bitcoin MSTR is and other entities are buying it as fast as they can...soon will only be able to trade it amongst them selves...so IMHO a big bubble about to burst.
2. Brics can try a new currency but is chinas fleet of aircraft carriers sufficient to police the seas which is the primary reason for being a reserve currency. Britain lost it when they lost control of the seas to the US.
3. Not sure that cash is king being a suckers bet. compare having it to not having it.
4. We can turn it around...Argentina did and it happened in less than a year.
again just my opinion...user name checks out

[biglentil]

mostly agree but a couple points
1. on bitcoin MSTR is and other entities are buying it as fast as they can...soon will only be able to trade it amongst them selves...so IMHO a big bubble about to burst.
2. Brics can try a new currency but is chinas fleet of aircraft carriers sufficient to police the seas which is the primary reason for being a reserve currency. Britain lost it when they lost control of the seas to the US.
3. Not sure that cash is king being a suckers bet. compare having it to not having it.
4. We can turn it around...Argentina did and it happened in less than a year.
again just my opinion...user name checks out

1. I agree Bitcoin looks toppy, sentiment indicators sky high.
2. I'm not sure if the US can afford to be the worlds policeman much longer racking up debt without foreign purchasers but the Fed itself. Monetization to fuel consumption never ends well.
3. Gold is also classified as a tier one asset and there is a reason Central banks all over the world have gone from net sellers to net buyers at the fastest rate ever. The difference is gold is the only financial asset to have ZERO counterparty risk.
4. We are in uncharted waters.

[errolanderson]

When this U.S. equity bubble blows, those with cash will be smiling. This debt crisis has yet to even get started.

Some North American banks are hanging on by-a-shoestring. The U.S. Federal Reserve is now running an unheard-of massive, massive deficit. It’s not a free ride on manipulation forever.

Vegas hotels on the Strip were discounting rooms on Thanksgiving. Unheard of . . . .

December may be a very interesting month for markets.

[biglentil]

Since the 08 great financial crisis both US and Canada have put legislation into effect preventing a 08 style bailout instead codifying mechanisms for a bail in. Those with cash in chequing and savings accounts would likely see massive haircuts directly off their balances. Unless the cash is under your matress, it's not effectively yours. And even if it's under your matress it's not without it's counterparty risk as all dollars come into existance as debt if the debtors default what value does the currency that came into creation from that debt have?

A debt crisis however would give governments the opportunity they need to rollout CBDC's, digital ID'S and a Chinese style social credit system. All existing cash would need to be redeemed at a significant discount.

[errolanderson]

Unless my economics are highly cockeyed, this would be incredibly deflationary.

Asset price collapse, including the stock market. Welcome depression.

[errolanderson]

The unofficial recession is starting-to-bite . . . . November economic data released this morning.

Payrolls miss, Manufacturing miss, Factory orders miss, the list goes on.

U.S. Manufacturing data show a deep recession with data negative 24 or the past 25 months.

This now appears the worst manufacturing recession since the 1990s. Many sectors in a downturn.

Thankfully we are told by bankers and politicians, this is not a recession.

[Old Cowzilla]

But but we were told things where booming under Biden Gov just a few weeks ago hope media didn't get that wrong too

[shtferbrains]

Stellantis/ Ram trucks in trouble with to much inventory/ slow sales.
Lots of truck inventory on all the lots.
Also big tractors and used combines.
JD also in the news with poor financials.

[errolanderson]

Ford is now reported sitting with 400,000 cars on dealer lots. That is the most inventory of auto manufacturers. Ford may have to cut production by idling plants. This situation will hit a lot of parts suppliers . . . .

[shtferbrains]

Surprised me how low on the pole our automakers are.

[errolanderson]

Tsunami appears hammering U.S. retail earnings released in the past few hours. Big misses by some major mall retailers. Consumers slow spending. Big time BLACK FRIDAY sales that will last well into 2025, but this is apparently not called deflation.

U.S. Jobless claims just released well above expectations

GDP is now being supported by government deficit spending for years now. Not real growth. This has totally come home-to-roost now.

Stock market rally unabated, Ponzi comes to mind. Bitcoin crushes $100,000. Whales must hold.

Auto industry in-trouble. Cash crunch, labour costs too high. Mergers / takeovers appear likely.

Thankfully, we are told it will be a soft landing by those in-the-know. And chances of a 2025 recession remain low.

STRAP-IN FOLKS!

[fjlip]

Pattison swamped with used....sales are very slow....deals coming soon.

No used from Kelvington were at Ritchies.


Every car dealer LOADED right up, no place to park em.

[rumrocks]

Tsunami appears hammering U.S. retail earnings released in the past few hours. Big misses by some major mall retailers. Consumers slow spending. Big time BLACK FRIDAY sales that will last well into 2025, but this is apparently not called deflation.

U.S. Jobless claims just released well above expectations

GDP is now being supported by government deficit spending for years now. Not real growth. This has totally come home-to-roost now.

Stock market rally unabated, Ponzi comes to mind. Bitcoin crushes $100,000. Whales must hold.

Auto industry in-trouble. Cash crunch, labour costs too high. Mergers / takeovers appear likely.

Thankfully, we are told it will be a soft landing by those in-the-know. And chances of a 2025 recession remain low.

STRAP-IN FOLKS!

Errol what happens to signed contracts for commodities such as cattle and grain between two parties in the US and Canada if tariffs come into effect.

[biglentil]

China cancels $690b in US imports including deliberately not buying soybeans from the US according to Bunge.