Not your average recession . . . .

[Taiga]

Vehicle dealership inventories high and big discounts. Prices came up too high and too fast.

[Herc]

Vehicle dealership inventories high and big discounts. Prices came up too high and too fast.

Big discounts? Bought my ram in 2017 for close to 35% off. Doubt discounts are anywhere near that. Remember, discounts and high inventories were always the norm, before covid…..

[Taiga]

No haven’t seen anything that big. 20% off and 0% financing is back though.
Leftover snowmobiles being blown out.

[errolanderson]

Major meltdown in the auto industry in-progress? If you are in the market for new or used, be patient. This washout may have just begun. Dealerships closing? Used vehicle price collapse? My opinion . . . .

Smoking gun now pointing toward the U.S. stock market. Flow of money rally into U.S. only lasts until the tap shuts off. Investors remain extremely bullish. Trumpism.

Europe and Asia already in-disarray. China govt yields at historic lows. Brazil Real collapse. U.S. export problem.

Realize, weak-kneed commodity-based currencies a concern or blessing? Depends on what side of the fence.

Aussie dollar slammed. But Loonie is now oversold, USD overbought. Too high dollar impacting the U.S.

The inflation story is sooo old. What will mainstream media talk about. Price of bananas story? Media Credibility? Deflation doesn’t get-the-ratings . . .

Don’t run with the herd, there is a jump ahead . . . . My opinion, not shared by the masses.

errolanderson.substack.com

[ColevilleH2S]

No haven’t seen anything that big. 20% off and 0% financing is back though.
Leftover snowmobiles being blown out.

Another one bites the dust.

Arctic Cat has shut down sled manufacturing and it's parent company is trying to sell the division. There is speculation Polaris is on shaky ground as well.

[Taiga]

Yeah KTM has folded too, they have over a years worth of inventory in storage apparently at the factory, not even counting the inventory at dealers.

[wheatking16]

At this point in time, the charts suggest a world of hurt is on the way.

IMO

We moved a long-term investment from equities to bonds.

But I have wrong before.

Lots.

[WiltonRanch]

Atv’s and sleds, especially sleds are the ultimate early warning sign disposable income is drying up Atv dealerships going belly up happens next. Sled dealers also impacted by no snow years. Word on street only sled maker left standing is brp.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

At this point in time, the charts suggest a world of hurt is on the way.

IMO

We moved a long-term investment from equities to bonds.

But I have wrong before.

Lots.

What would a world of hurt mean for Bitcoin? Deflation would not be friendly to Bitcoin. The central bank response to deflation would be.

[wheatking16]

What would a world of hurt mean for Bitcoin? Deflation would not be friendly to Bitcoin. The central bank response to deflation would be.

IMO

For what it is worth.

Keep in mind it is free.

A world of hurt to me means a sell off to raise cash.

I anticipate everything gets sold.

My intuition tells me Bitcoin is setting up for a 25-30% minimum pullback.

The US stock market similar.

I think the catalyst will be massive job losses due to AI with a larger %of the population affected, both entry level and professional jobs.


Government debt will increase significantly with UBI. Every country with a government who desires to stay in power and has the ability will participate.

But this could be my old pessimistic worldview (which I am trying to shake) speaking.

Let's celebrate if I am interpreting thing incorrectly.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks for that.

The optimist in me wants to think that the AI revolution should result in economic growth of a scale we can't comprehend currently. Jobs displaced in many sectors will be replaced with opportunities(not the same as "jobs" in the conventional sense) in countless others.
Unless of course government and labor unions intervene try to maintain the status quo on top of the revolution and no one has any incentive to take these opportunities.

[wheatking16]

Thanks for that.

The optimist in me wants to think that the AI revolution should result in economic growth of a scale we can't comprehend currently. Jobs displaced in many sectors will be replaced with opportunities(not the same as "jobs" in the conventional sense) in countless others.
Unless of course government and labor unions intervene try to maintain the status quo on top of the revolution and no one has any incentive to take these opportunities.

"The optimist in me wants to think that the AI revolution should result in economic growth of a scale we can't comprehend currently"

I 100% agree with that sentiment, and the abundance experienced will be significant.

Think of cheaper goods and services, fewer work hours, and more time to do what we enjoy.

I don't anticipate the government will try to maintain the status quo, and labour unions will be able to stay in front of it.

It will be a great experience for those around to enjoy it.

However, I feel the transition will be messy, similar to the early stages of the Industrial Revolution.

Hence, UBI.

[LEP]

The regular economy is short of qualified labor. Those displaced by AI will have lots of opportunities to shift sectors. That usually happens slowly.

The big question is whether it is 10% of the jobs affected by AI or 25%. The former might be something that can be handled. The latter not so much.

[farmaholic]

UBI will be a race to the bottom.

Where is the incentive for the recipients to get to work to "get ahead"?

Where is the incentive for the people working to fund that socialist ideal to keep working?

[shtferbrains]

Ronald Regan always said there was no pride if you didn't have a productive job.

The way to prosperity for the country was a job for everyone and no need for welfare.

That was what the people wanted to hear as he got the biggest majority ever on his second term,