Not your average recession . . . .

[errolanderson]

China’s depression and deflationary debt spiral gripping global asset prices.

Baltic dry ocean freight index now in-collapse.

German economy also in depression? Auto industry implosion.

And El Salvador pulls-the-plug on bitcoin . . . .

errolanderson.substack.com

[biglentil]

So governments are going to regain their sanity and become fiscally responsible? Does that mean my dollars will go further, a new pickup $30000, Urea $200 a ton and a new combine $250000 again?

Oh doesn't the deflation monster sound terrible. Dollars that actually have purchasing power again. Please pinch me if that fairytale comes to be, but I won't hold my breath.

[LWeber]

The DOW chart from the time this post was started on November 03, 2023, to today's close. 34,061 to 43,297 - close to close. 13 months of recession = a gain of 27.1%

[biglentil]

Nat Gas +17% in the past five days and up 8% just today.

[errolanderson]

It appears reality has pinched-a-nerve.

Stock markets are no indication of the economy. Nat gas is on its seasonal winter demand run.

Every business person has a decision, risk-on or risk-off. Your choice . . . .

[biglentil]

China announced loose monetary policy for the first time in 14 years. We have currencies wars, trade wars, and shooting wars a geopolitical powder keg. Commodities and cpi are going to rip with high unemployment, more stagflation.

[Taiga]

Vehicle dealership inventories high and big discounts. Prices came up too high and too fast.

[Herc]

Vehicle dealership inventories high and big discounts. Prices came up too high and too fast.

Big discounts? Bought my ram in 2017 for close to 35% off. Doubt discounts are anywhere near that. Remember, discounts and high inventories were always the norm, before covid…..

[Taiga]

No haven’t seen anything that big. 20% off and 0% financing is back though.
Leftover snowmobiles being blown out.

[errolanderson]

Major meltdown in the auto industry in-progress? If you are in the market for new or used, be patient. This washout may have just begun. Dealerships closing? Used vehicle price collapse? My opinion . . . .

Smoking gun now pointing toward the U.S. stock market. Flow of money rally into U.S. only lasts until the tap shuts off. Investors remain extremely bullish. Trumpism.

Europe and Asia already in-disarray. China govt yields at historic lows. Brazil Real collapse. U.S. export problem.

Realize, weak-kneed commodity-based currencies a concern or blessing? Depends on what side of the fence.

Aussie dollar slammed. But Loonie is now oversold, USD overbought. Too high dollar impacting the U.S.

The inflation story is sooo old. What will mainstream media talk about. Price of bananas story? Media Credibility? Deflation doesn’t get-the-ratings . . .

Don’t run with the herd, there is a jump ahead . . . . My opinion, not shared by the masses.

errolanderson.substack.com

[ColevilleH2S]

No haven’t seen anything that big. 20% off and 0% financing is back though.
Leftover snowmobiles being blown out.

Another one bites the dust.

Arctic Cat has shut down sled manufacturing and it's parent company is trying to sell the division. There is speculation Polaris is on shaky ground as well.

[Taiga]

Yeah KTM has folded too, they have over a years worth of inventory in storage apparently at the factory, not even counting the inventory at dealers.