Not your average recession . . . .

[wheatking16]

At this point in time, the charts suggest a world of hurt is on the way.

IMO

We moved a long-term investment from equities to bonds.

????But I have wrong before.

Lots.

[WiltonRanch]

Atv’s and sleds, especially sleds are the ultimate early warning sign disposable income is drying up Atv dealerships going belly up happens next. Sled dealers also impacted by no snow years. Word on street only sled maker left standing is brp.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

At this point in time, the charts suggest a world of hurt is on the way.

IMO

We moved a long-term investment from equities to bonds.

But I have wrong before.

Lots.

What would a world of hurt mean for Bitcoin? Deflation would not be friendly to Bitcoin. The central bank response to deflation would be.

[wheatking16]

What would a world of hurt mean for Bitcoin? Deflation would not be friendly to Bitcoin. The central bank response to deflation would be.

IMO

For what it is worth.

Keep in mind it is free.

A world of hurt to me means a sell off to raise cash.

I anticipate everything gets sold.

My intuition tells me Bitcoin is setting up for a 25-30% minimum pullback.

The US stock market similar.

I think the catalyst will be massive job losses due to AI with a larger %of the population affected, both entry level and professional jobs.


Government debt will increase significantly with UBI. Every country with a government who desires to stay in power and has the ability will participate.

But this could be my old pessimistic worldview (which I am trying to shake) speaking.

Let's celebrate if I am interpreting thing incorrectly.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thanks for that.

The optimist in me wants to think that the AI revolution should result in economic growth of a scale we can't comprehend currently. Jobs displaced in many sectors will be replaced with opportunities(not the same as "jobs" in the conventional sense) in countless others.
Unless of course government and labor unions intervene try to maintain the status quo on top of the revolution and no one has any incentive to take these opportunities.

[wheatking16]

Thanks for that.

The optimist in me wants to think that the AI revolution should result in economic growth of a scale we can't comprehend currently. Jobs displaced in many sectors will be replaced with opportunities(not the same as "jobs" in the conventional sense) in countless others.
Unless of course government and labor unions intervene try to maintain the status quo on top of the revolution and no one has any incentive to take these opportunities.

"The optimist in me wants to think that the AI revolution should result in economic growth of a scale we can't comprehend currently"

I 100% agree with that sentiment, and the abundance experienced will be significant.

Think of cheaper goods and services, fewer work hours, and more time to do what we enjoy.

I don't anticipate the government will try to maintain the status quo, and labour unions will be able to stay in front of it.

It will be a great experience for those around to enjoy it.

However, I feel the transition will be messy, similar to the early stages of the Industrial Revolution.

Hence, UBI.

[LEP]

The regular economy is short of qualified labor. Those displaced by AI will have lots of opportunities to shift sectors. That usually happens slowly.

The big question is whether it is 10% of the jobs affected by AI or 25%. The former might be something that can be handled. The latter not so much.

[farmaholic]

UBI will be a race to the bottom.

Where is the incentive for the recipients to get to work to "get ahead"?

Where is the incentive for the people working to fund that socialist ideal to keep working?

[shtferbrains]

Ronald Regan always said there was no pride if you didn't have a productive job.

The way to prosperity for the country was a job for everyone and no need for welfare.

That was what the people wanted to hear as he got the biggest majority ever on his second term,

[AlbertaFarmer5]

UBI will be a race to the bottom.

Where is the incentive for the recipients to get to work to "get ahead"?

Where is the incentive for the people working to fund that socialist ideal to keep working?

That is what I was referring to when I said unless the government intervenes.
If UBI is the solution, then there will be no economic growth, just a downward spiral, and a massive transfer of wealth to a small elite at the top of the pyramid.

[biglentil]

Many pundits are claiming a market crash imminent. Imo the possibility is very real, many black swan are circling including commercial real estate, credit card defaults, an empty fed repo fund, or another wuflu. If so margin calls would affect all assets including bitcoin and probably to a lesser extent gold. Hypinflationary periods are almost always proceeded by massive market meltdowns. This may seem counterintuitive but when the wheels come off in a massive debt fueled wreck the money printing goes ballistic. The bubble and debt levels are just so much larger now, nothing was fixed after 2008 lesson. $2 trillion was the bailout in 2008 this crisis would require $20 trillion plus.


The confidence in the dollars purchasing power would wane at the same time the central banks would appear impotent to fix anything. Central banks are reactionary and dollars may flood the system only after supply chains broke down. Dollars do not go further when there is nothing on the shelves to buy, they become street confetti like Weimer Germany in the early 1900's or Venezuela just a few years ago.

Let no crisis go to waste. After such an event they wouldn't even have to work hard sell Digital ID'S, CBDC, UBI and stakeholder capitalism. Joe budweiser will beg for it.

[errolanderson]

Rumblings Trudeau resignation. Loonie rallying. Heavy resistance 72 cents on relief rally? Stay-in-power, 68 cents?