Not your average recession . . . .

[errolanderson]

This is not your average recession. Despite constant denial by bankers and politicians, we are all facing a rapidly deteriorating economy AKA: deepening recession. Just ask a trucker for confirmation . . . .

Most recessions last 18 months or less before green buds of the economy reappear This recession may be longer ‘n deeper (IMO).

Commodities are screaming deflation. Even king oil is having difficulty maintaining footing even with 2 wars in-progress. Ignoring commodity fallout is a clear mis-step from highly-academic central bankers pretending not to notice. Keynes economic training never mentioned anything about commodities, just money printing inflation rescue plan to run from debt. (Apologies for cynicism).

Rate hikes now an economic killer. Mainstream media can’t get off their inflation grandstanding. Anyway, talk of deflation makes for lousy news.

But mainstream media will report layoffs and bankruptcies in 2024 without mentioning truth of a debt crisis fueling deflation. Buyers demand cheaper prices. And demand is king.

Ocean freight companies know this writing on-the-wall. Freight companies warn of 2024 layoffs. This will be a recession for anyway with a job, but a depression for those without.

Central bankers apt to panic soon. Rate cuts incoming (IMO) despite all the hawkish drum banging talk of further rates.

But you know, you gotta control that inflation . . . .

[Rareearth]

Any thoughts Errol on the US dollar and its reserve currency status?
China, Russia, most of the Middle East, India, South America?

[shtferbrains]

We probably won't be effected here.

Looks like our finance minister has everything under control.

[Taiga]

Coastal GasLink pipeline almost done, LNG Canada to start shipping in 2025, producers will start ramping up drilling after Christmas so the gas is ready to fill the line and plant (fast decline rates in tight rock). Trans Mountain supposed to be done shortly into the new year as well. There is a lot of optimism in this sector, but yes everything else is very bad. Hopefully this government falls over the Carbon Tax.

[FarmJunkie]

We probably won't be effected here.

Looks like our finance minister has everything under control.

Biggest airhead alive

[zeefarmer]

It would be nice to see deflation in the price of things we buy instead of deflation in the price of things we sell

[errolanderson]

Any thoughts Errol on the US dollar and its reserve currency status?
China, Russia, most of the Middle East, India, South America?

The USD is still the key reserve currency despite BRICS attempts. The dollar remains in an uptrend.

China’s economy is in-recession as their GDP is so heavily tied to their real estate market, which is now in-collapse. Investors still race toward the USD for safe-haven buying. But dollar strength has definitely impacted (slowed) U.S.exports.

Believe there is heightened risk that central banks globally may begin to cut rates sooner-than-expected in an emergency response to stimulate economies as this global recession worsens. Freight companies hard hit.

Only take central bank rhetoric for face-value. They can panic and cut rates quickly, especially if their chosen child (the stock market) has a sustained pullback into 2024.

[errolanderson]

FED SPEAK OF THE WEEK. . . . Powell stated; “We are not even thinking of thinking of cutting rates, a bit” TRANSLATION; “We are thinking of thinking of cutting rates, if the economy goes haywire.

Same statement said 3 years ago on raising rates. Errol’s Commodity Wire

[agstar77]

Just look at the stock market for the truth. Cut coming.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

It would be nice to see deflation in the price of things we buy instead of deflation in the price of things we sell

I'm seeing the concept "Inflationary Recession" floating around lately. Which I think is the most likely outcome. Good time to be a farmer, not a good time to be a consumer.

[errolanderson]

Good news, recession cutting fuel prices. Gasoline prices on a slippery slope. Wholesale prices remain in downtrend as recession deepens.

Crude oil a ticking clock for sustained selloff (IMO). Key WTI support seen technically approaching $73.50 per barrel.

[biglentil]

If you didn't blink in 2008 you could of taken advantage of lower prices only if using the current formula for calculating cpi and not the 1980 cpi calculation methodology.

Errol general price levels need to retrace approximately 26% for the cpi to be equivalent to Jan 2020. You've been calling for a massive deflationary event for many years longer than that only to watch the purchasing power of savings obliterated.

One thing we can probably agree on is that the can can be kicked no longer.

[TASFarms]

Fdic closes another bank on a Friday

[TOM4CWB]

Both Trudeau and Biden are kicking our economic butts…. And our Children’s Children… … we A R E the passive good natured… Lambs being led to the….

Blessings and Wisdom

[furrowtickler]

Biden and Trudeau are putting the middle class into the Stone Age for the next 25 years . And their followers are like a bunch of goats bleating to their overlords. It’s sickening.