Not your average recession . . . .

[errolanderson]

Macy’s now closing retail stores. Hopefully, the parade will be alright . . . .

Thankfully, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen just stated that she sees no sign of any U.S. recession in-sight. Politics over reality in pure sight.

Commodity slump hasn’t even hit the radar screen of central bankers. Errol’s Commodity Wire

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I found the deflation.

Beyond Meat's Market Cap:
July 2019: $14.14B
Today: $635.08M

Who could possibly have predicted that fake meat would fail so spectacularly?

[ajl]

More deflation to be found on the grain board this morning. Recent land auction in the hood saw some restraint in the bidding with 138 acres (20 acres including acreage was subdivided out) selling for 446K with buyers fee included. This was mostly cultivated and had canola stubble on from 23. Prodaniuk auction that one. CPPIB sold (gave away) some commercial office space in Vancouver, New York and California recently. I was told to an old timer farmer and he said he has held canola for 4 years once. It was in a small bin of 1400 bu. This looks to be the strategy required to get the cost of production out of canola.

[errolanderson]

From the world of the financial bizarro . . .

According to the Bank of America, the U.S. debt is now exploding at a rate of $1 trillion dollars every 100 days. Currently, U.S. government approaching $34.5 trillion.

Meanwhile in the casino markets, Dow, S&P and NASDAQ balloon to all-time highs this week. No exit door is remotely able to handle this incoming rush . . . .

[AlbertaFarmer5]

From the world of the financial bizarro . . .

According to the Bank of America, the U.S. debt is now exploding at a rate of $1 trillion dollars every 100 days. Currently, U.S. government approaching $34.5 trillion.

Meanwhile in the casino markets, Dow, S&P and NASDAQ balloon to all-time highs this week. No exit door is remotely able to handle this incoming rush . . . .

American markets wildly outperforming every other market in the world during this run. Is the market wrong, or is the market betting that Central Banks will have no choice but to inflate their way out of this yet again. And that once the flood gates open, American stimulus will look miniscule compared to every other market, so investments in US dollars will still outperform.

[errolanderson]

Bitcoin rockets to record high this week, then collapses 10% in 6 hours. Is this a market or just a pure casino? Apple on a slippery slope. NASDAQ selldown. Magnificent 7, down to 4?

Gold price rockets, but miners flounder. STOCK MARKET LED BY ONE . . . NVIDIA. This is insane concentration. Diesel price slide. Oil overbought? Commodity and asset deflation overwhelming, but no mention from Fed or Bank of Canada.

Strap-in folks, this may be just the beginning of some financial market insanity heading into spring. The reset is underway (IMO) . . . .

[Hamloc]

Bitcoin rockets to record high this week, then collapses 10% in 6 hours. Is this a market or just a pure casino? Apple on a slippery slope. NASDAQ selldown. Magnificent 7, down to 4?

Gold price rockets, but miners flounder. STOCK MARKET LED BY ONE . . . NVIDIA. This is insane concentration. Diesel price slide. Oil overbought? Commodity and asset deflation overwhelming, but no mention from Fed or Bank of Canada.

Strap-in folks, this may be just the beginning of some financial market insanity heading into spring. The reset is underway (IMO) . . . .

Diesel down 25 cents gasoline up 25 cents, first time in a long time gasoline futures price almost even with diesel.

[errolanderson]

Just happening . . . As Powell spoke that rates may hold for longer, broad-based selloff in banks. More failures straight ahead. Credit crisis imploding as the stock market parties . . . . PS: Equity buying now apparently driven by AI, good grief!

[the big wheel]

Please tell me what products are deflationary besides our grain prices? Cause I went to the grocery store yesterday and nothing is deflationary, then went to pick up some hydraulic oil and a front tractor tire and to my surprise its still *** insane???? We need to stop the political bullshiiit that its all carbon tax because its a small part of the real problem which is corporate greed and an incompetant central bank keeping rates up.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I'm still looking for deflation.
Some of the only markets in deflation are grains and natural gas. And that has more to do with weather than economic conditions. But even grains are still well above pre covid levels.
Some cherry picked examples that commodities aren't dead:
Bitcoin is up 74% in 14 months
Oil is up 18% in three months, and still well above pre pandemic levels
Copper is up 11% since fall
Lumber is up 40% since the beginning of 2023. 24% just since fall.
Gold at all time highs, up trend in all time scales, and up 31% just since fall lows.
Silver not doing much, but in a range nearly double its pre pandemic levels.
Even some ag markets. Palm oil up 28% since it's lows last spring. Up 13% just in 2024 alone, while soyoil has been crashing. Converted to USD, the numbers aren't much different, so it isn't a currency play.
Cocoa gets all the headlines at all time highs, up 211% in a year and a half.
Coffee up 34% since fall.
Orange Juice up 25% since January alone, a steady climb for years, up nearly 4 times its prepandemic range.
Feeder cattle up 19% since December. Nearly double their prepandemic range, a relentless increase since then.
Lean Hogs up 28% since the beginning of the year.
TSX which has an outsized proportion of commodities is up 15.5% since fall lows.
CRB commodity index up 14% since December and up ~80% above its prepandemic range.