Not your average recession . . . .

[errolanderson]

Bitcoin rockets to record high this week, then collapses 10% in 6 hours. Is this a market or just a pure casino? Apple on a slippery slope. NASDAQ selldown. Magnificent 7, down to 4?

Gold price rockets, but miners flounder. STOCK MARKET LED BY ONE . . . NVIDIA. This is insane concentration. Diesel price slide. Oil overbought? Commodity and asset deflation overwhelming, but no mention from Fed or Bank of Canada.

Strap-in folks, this may be just the beginning of some financial market insanity heading into spring. The reset is underway (IMO) . . . .

[Hamloc]

Bitcoin rockets to record high this week, then collapses 10% in 6 hours. Is this a market or just a pure casino? Apple on a slippery slope. NASDAQ selldown. Magnificent 7, down to 4?

Gold price rockets, but miners flounder. STOCK MARKET LED BY ONE . . . NVIDIA. This is insane concentration. Diesel price slide. Oil overbought? Commodity and asset deflation overwhelming, but no mention from Fed or Bank of Canada.

Strap-in folks, this may be just the beginning of some financial market insanity heading into spring. The reset is underway (IMO) . . . .

Diesel down 25 cents gasoline up 25 cents, first time in a long time gasoline futures price almost even with diesel.

[errolanderson]

Just happening . . . As Powell spoke that rates may hold for longer, broad-based selloff in banks. More failures straight ahead. Credit crisis imploding as the stock market parties . . . . PS: Equity buying now apparently driven by AI, good grief!

[the big wheel]

Please tell me what products are deflationary besides our grain prices? Cause I went to the grocery store yesterday and nothing is deflationary, then went to pick up some hydraulic oil and a front tractor tire and to my surprise its still *** insane???? We need to stop the political bullshiiit that its all carbon tax because its a small part of the real problem which is corporate greed and an incompetant central bank keeping rates up.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I'm still looking for deflation.
Some of the only markets in deflation are grains and natural gas. And that has more to do with weather than economic conditions. But even grains are still well above pre covid levels.
Some cherry picked examples that commodities aren't dead:
Bitcoin is up 74% in 14 months
Oil is up 18% in three months, and still well above pre pandemic levels
Copper is up 11% since fall
Lumber is up 40% since the beginning of 2023. 24% just since fall.
Gold at all time highs, up trend in all time scales, and up 31% just since fall lows.
Silver not doing much, but in a range nearly double its pre pandemic levels.
Even some ag markets. Palm oil up 28% since it's lows last spring. Up 13% just in 2024 alone, while soyoil has been crashing. Converted to USD, the numbers aren't much different, so it isn't a currency play.
Cocoa gets all the headlines at all time highs, up 211% in a year and a half.
Coffee up 34% since fall.
Orange Juice up 25% since January alone, a steady climb for years, up nearly 4 times its prepandemic range.
Feeder cattle up 19% since December. Nearly double their prepandemic range, a relentless increase since then.
Lean Hogs up 28% since the beginning of the year.
TSX which has an outsized proportion of commodities is up 15.5% since fall lows.
CRB commodity index up 14% since December and up ~80% above its prepandemic range.

[shtferbrains]

Gold is rocketing
Silver may be lifting off

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Gold is rocketing
Silver may be lifting off

That is deflationary, right?

[TOM4CWB]

Watching CNBC this morning… the USFed is claiming that there was a 17% increase in consumer edibles… counted in the Calculations for determining interest rates from the Fed… however the actual increase was 47% not 17%.

There is 5$Trillion in the US cash.. sitting that the US government has dumped into the US economy… 6$Trillion was the US deficit in 2023… and the US Fed keeps pumping more cash… with the underground economy growing exponentially because of the growing 8million of illegal emigration + … taxing health care facilities… beyond capacity…

insanity…

After the US…. Election… no matter who wins… the US economy is in for a big readjustment…

Many Blessings!

Cheers

[wheatking16]

Watching CNBC this morning… the USFed is claiming that there was a 17% increase in consumer edibles… counted in the Calculations for determining interest rates from the Fed… however the actual increase was 47% not 17%.

There is 5$Trillion in the US cash.. sitting that the US government has dumped into the US economy… 6$Trillion was the US deficit in 2023… and the US Fed keeps pumping more cash… with the underground economy growing exponentially because of the growing 8million of illegal emigration + … taxing health care facilities… beyond capacity…

insanity…

After the US…. Election… no matter who wins… the US economy is in for a big readjustment…

Many Blessings!

Cheers

Consumer edibles?

[errolanderson]

Nvidia the largest market cap stock in the world now swinging like a penny stock. This is not good folks . . . . .

[sumdumguy]

“Swinging” hmmm how does a stock swing?

[errolanderson]

U.S. economy beginning-to-swoon . . . . More bank failures possible by late March into April. U.S. Fed NY manufacturing data released this morning, brutal . . . huge miss. U.S. economy has entered a recession (IMO). Canada's economy has been in-recession for 11 months now.

Rates need to be cut ASAP, but central bankers not smelling-the-coffee. They will cut rates too late. This is a dangerous spring market financial situation now made worse by untimely central policy fueling debt implosion (IMO).

Gold has broke recent uptrend. Bitcoin (who knows) widget has reversed 7% overnight. And Nvidia now off about 11% from recent highs. These are the investor greed rock stars . . . starting to shake? Errol's Commodity Wire, Calgary
?

[foragefarmer]

You want to trade the high flyers such Bitcoin, Nvidia, etc you will certainly get burnt, but you play the long game with Canadian banks and Railways with their slow and steady appreciation and great dividends the portfolio will grow.

Just look a Buffet, it's about time not timing.

[errolanderson]

Germany and UK PPI data just released and deflation appears deepening in those countries. German producer price index was -4.1%, below expectations. UK apparently may cut rates soon.

Japan battling deflation for years just hiked rates for the 1st time in many years. And the Yen actually dropped . . . . BOJ has lost control.

Powell will hold rates steady today, a mis-step (IMO). 2nd wave Bank fallout in-progress. Layoffs accelerating despite all the rosy jobs data.

Fake job creation numbers? U.S. jobs data was slashed one month after release. Incompetence or manipulation or both?

Canada inflation just released below expectations. Rate cuts soon.

Central bankers are just one stock market crack away from panicked cuts (IMO).

[shtferbrains]

Where is Blackrock/Larry Fink going with tokens?

He controls more than most world leaders.

A clear and based "bitcoin" ?

Not a fan myself.