Aust Harvest Update

[Landdownunder]

My gut feel still below 10yr average wheat and barley maybe canola.
Lentils above.
Beans other legumes tad below.
Quality hearsay and ain’t checked elevator stats for what the quality % are but think protein down on wheats easy enough to find each elevators receivels and various grades readily available to all growers traders end users quite transparent.

[Landdownunder]

Some nasty weather in parts and some real nasty weather in other talk of downgrades but always over blown unless it continues

[Rareearth]

Thank you for updates !

nice to have early prospects and perspectives!

[LEP]

So is harvest just starting? Is the rainy weather in the lentil area? Nothing the importers love more than slight weather damaged red lentils. Doesn't affect splitting yields much and they can buy them at a discount.

[ajl]

My grain buyer says that china is buying cheap feed barley from Oz and that is why export barley business has dried up here for the past year. The domestic market is the big one for barley here but for a few years export business was significant. Bringing barley to the elevator was a nice option for those of us with compact yards and straight trucks. Can we expect those supplies to run out soon?

[Landdownunder]

Feed Barley give or take $300 per tonne on farm for me yesterday export based.
Domestic about $8/12 above that but buying hand to mouth waiting for prices to ease

[Landdownunder]

Australia filed to take china to world trade organization about a tarriff/tax china refused to buy aussie barley. China had a case to answer, they dropped tarriff/tax normal trade resumed only about 3 months ago been shut out of there market since covid

[furrowtickler]

Good thread , thank you for the info
much appreciated

[Landdownunder]

Finally I’ve done a good thread might even keep coming back

[Rareearth]

Speaking of lentils,
have you heard of aphanomyces ? Do growers talk about it much?

This will have a big impact for growers in Canada going forward.

[dave4441]

So is harvest just starting? Is the rainy weather in the lentil area? Nothing the importers love more than slight weather damaged red lentils. Doesn't affect splitting yields much and they can buy them at a discount.

Australian harvest is @ 65% complete and all top quality from my understanding (which is normal except 2022 harvest which seen significant downgrading). Australia 2023 is a whopper of a crop. In the last 12 months they exported 1.8 MMT. This is way way more then they expected to produce last season (a year ago they predicted 1 MMT production and grew closer to 1.7 MMT) as their production numbers are always very low compared to reality. This year they expect 1.4 MMT of red production finishing harvest by xmas and they dont have the weathering issue. Most of my 22 year career they grew 2-300,000 MT per year. Canada this year is expected to have grown about 1.25 MMT so we have become less dominate in this market and what happens in Australia will like lead price to Canadian growers. Today its firm based on Indian demand but price will depend on how sales are made from Australia. Which remains to be seen. Our price peaked at 40 cents this fall and moved lower mainly due to this upcoming Australian harvest.

Aphanomyces, i don't believe is a concern (but believe they have other leaf disease concerns, ie Aschchyta etc), in the way their crop is as a long season winter crop and my understanding is flowering and podding is a dry season. Because there industry has so many new acres i doubt its an issue for years and years. They surpassed Canada as a exporter in reds last year and the upcoming 12 months. Today we have to be about 35 cents to compete with them today which is not far off current values.

Australia also has cheaper frt to destination of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh then Canada and has a weaker currency which adds about 5 cents/lb Australian dollar to their price. If we are receiving 35 cents CAD they are receiving 40 cents Aust. Not sure on buying power though. But from a gross dollars per hectare it is significant.

[Landdownunder]

This could well disrupt harvest big time

[LEP]

How far along with harvest are you?

[Landdownunder]

Myself about half way reckon total oz harvest similar maybe 45%

[Landdownunder]

I’m in the dry slot