Aust Harvest Update

[dave4441]

So is harvest just starting? Is the rainy weather in the lentil area? Nothing the importers love more than slight weather damaged red lentils. Doesn't affect splitting yields much and they can buy them at a discount.

Australian harvest is @ 65% complete and all top quality from my understanding (which is normal except 2022 harvest which seen significant downgrading). Australia 2023 is a whopper of a crop. In the last 12 months they exported 1.8 MMT. This is way way more then they expected to produce last season (a year ago they predicted 1 MMT production and grew closer to 1.7 MMT) as their production numbers are always very low compared to reality. This year they expect 1.4 MMT of red production finishing harvest by xmas and they dont have the weathering issue. Most of my 22 year career they grew 2-300,000 MT per year. Canada this year is expected to have grown about 1.25 MMT so we have become less dominate in this market and what happens in Australia will like lead price to Canadian growers. Today its firm based on Indian demand but price will depend on how sales are made from Australia. Which remains to be seen. Our price peaked at 40 cents this fall and moved lower mainly due to this upcoming Australian harvest.

Aphanomyces, i don't believe is a concern (but believe they have other leaf disease concerns, ie Aschchyta etc), in the way their crop is as a long season winter crop and my understanding is flowering and podding is a dry season. Because there industry has so many new acres i doubt its an issue for years and years. They surpassed Canada as a exporter in reds last year and the upcoming 12 months. Today we have to be about 35 cents to compete with them today which is not far off current values.

Australia also has cheaper frt to destination of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh then Canada and has a weaker currency which adds about 5 cents/lb Australian dollar to their price. If we are receiving 35 cents CAD they are receiving 40 cents Aust. Not sure on buying power though. But from a gross dollars per hectare it is significant.

[Landdownunder]

This could well disrupt harvest big time

[LEP]

How far along with harvest are you?

[Landdownunder]

Myself about half way reckon total oz harvest similar maybe 45%

[Landdownunder]

I’m in the dry slot