Have Cattle Bulls Lost Control?

[errolanderson]

LIVE & FEEDER CATTLE FUTURES FALLOUT: Massive plunge across entire cattle board. Feeder cattle futures have now lost nearly $50/cwt from their September highs. January feeders now plunging toward key chart support of $220/cwt today (Nov24). Will it hold?

Question now; Can the bulls regain control? Cash cattle prices stateside breaking down gradually. Alberta dressed prices have held up well, in part to weak Cdn dollar. Nonetheless, Alberta fed basis levels remain weak compared to the Nebraska cash market.

One thing for sure, consumers are tapped out, restaurant traffic appears down. Black Friday retail sales definitely off. Some analysts blame turkeys for the sell-off this week. Regardless, a real test for the wholesale beef market ahead . . . . Errol’s Commodity Wire, Calgary

[Old Cowzilla]

It was a great run sold my yearlings for record money in Sept. but will likely give back some of this money buying these wet noses now. No way I will make the same money on the next batch. Production still contacting so the bottom hopefully won't be real bad. Errol do you think feed grains have hit bottom yet ?

[errolanderson]

Southern Ab feedlot bids remain under pressure. Severe cold weather around Xmas can trigger short-term strength (10 cents/bu) through the holidays.

Lethbridge feedlots now around $310 to $320/MT ($6.75 - $6.95/bu) for Dec-Jan delivery. Strathmore around $300/MT ($6.50/bu). Westlock, Wainwright to Consort heard $285 to $290/MT ($6.20 - $6.30/bu) for 1st quarter 2024 delivery. Southern Alberta lots well covered with railed corn deliveries for the entire crop year. This will limit barely price improvement. Also, more malt rejection entering market.

Corn is the watch. Corn now at a 2-year low. Futures nearby support seen around $4.60/bu. Crude oil fallout not helping. If this support breaks (on crude failure), a move toward $4.25/ bu possible. If fresh bullish news triggers a recovery, heavy resistance @ $5.20/bu. Right now, U.S. corn exports slow.

Feed bids in-general still steady to easy right now. Need fresh demand for a spark. Hope this is of some use.

Note: Will place alerts on substack.com for anyone interested.

[Old Cowzilla]

Husky bids in Manitoba hit $7 for corn in March but price and space was short lived.

[13stripe]

Close to 5000 for bred heifers, price better not drop too far.

[15444]

Close to 5000 for bred heifers, price better not drop too far.

Where at? Seen bred sales in MN, fanciest breds were $2500 CDN. Sounds like some Canadian buyers are digging their own debt grave at 5k.

[shtferbrains]

Close to 5000 for bred heifers, price better not drop too far.

At $5000 it won't be long till there are more sellers than buyers?

Bred Heifers sold at Agribition today but can't find any results.

Usually a good indicator what people are willing to pay for good heifers

[newguy]

In the end cow numbers are at a historically low in numbers across North America.Supply will be very tight for a few years ahead as many breds still going to feedlot rather than having another calf.Hamburger and steak restaurants are huge in numbers and consumers demand will always be there.

[Old Cowzilla]

Local mart has quite a few sales coming up mostly older guys shutting down or scaling back and younger cows which I think would be an option over $5000 hfs . Pricey hfs can wreak just as easy as the cheap ones. But how much money these days to get a bred heifer to the sales ring given bull prices and pasture costs.

[shtferbrains]

Agribition heifers sold $4300 to $5200.