Posting this in marketing, trying to keep it relevant to marketing and not politics. Leave that for the other forum.
Is there still any war premium left in grain markets?
It seems the media is finally accepting what the markets apparently knew starting in May of 2022, regarding the outcome of the Ukraine conflict. The market has been steadily reducing the supposed war premium, even as world wheat stocks and fundamentals in the rest of the world were going the other direction.
So if the market if forward looking, will there be any reaction to any official announcements of whatever comes next in the conflict? Or is that already priced in? The official media is suggesting Ukraine is switching from the offensive to the defensive, with rumours of negotiations.
Or does this increase the odds of more serious western intervention and escalation?
What would be the markets reaction if Russia starts advancing? Until now, the front has been virtually static, so the area affected has been negligible from a production perspective. If action picks up along the black sea coast, where the infrastructure is, will it matter to the markets, or is it irrelevant since much of that has been out of commission anyways?
Is there still any war premium left in grain markets?
It seems the media is finally accepting what the markets apparently knew starting in May of 2022, regarding the outcome of the Ukraine conflict. The market has been steadily reducing the supposed war premium, even as world wheat stocks and fundamentals in the rest of the world were going the other direction.
So if the market if forward looking, will there be any reaction to any official announcements of whatever comes next in the conflict? Or is that already priced in? The official media is suggesting Ukraine is switching from the offensive to the defensive, with rumours of negotiations.
Or does this increase the odds of more serious western intervention and escalation?
What would be the markets reaction if Russia starts advancing? Until now, the front has been virtually static, so the area affected has been negligible from a production perspective. If action picks up along the black sea coast, where the infrastructure is, will it matter to the markets, or is it irrelevant since much of that has been out of commission anyways?