Predictions and Observations

[foragefarmer]

Marusko, you're right I cherry picked, but $1000.00 isn't exactly considered going all-in 20 years ago.

In those 20 years of holding $1000.00 worth of Apple shares you wouldn't be losing any sleep over the weather, or be pushing snow in -30 temps either.

One thing for sure it's easier holding Apple shares for 20 years compared to storing grain in the bins for years on end with the hope it appreciates while your money does squat for you, and if you missed 2022 you're moving backwards now.

Here's a solid Buffet style Canadian no risk stock.

"In the last 20 years, CNR stock has returned 1,140% to shareholders. After adjusting for dividends, total returns are higher at 1,640%. So, a $1,000 investment in CNR stock in September 2003 would be worth $17,360 today."

I'm sure there are plenty of Agrivillers who have been in the stock markets for many years.

Diversification doesn't only mean growing different crops.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Thinking more about the land market locally.
For the first time in many years, the cattlemen are flush with money and optimism. Land that was virtually unmarketable for the last 20 years, is selling for big prices now. Some of those sales make actual farmland look cheap in comparison.
Historically, the Biggest competition in this area is money from the energy industry, and more recently the forestry industry. They are back in the market again.
We are seeing a huge influx of people moving here from the rest of canada. Many ontarians have moved into our neighborhood lately.. they can sell a house in Toronto buy a quarter section here and have money left over, and a better paying job as a bonus.
Interest rates just don't seem to be having much effect. Possibly an indication that many sales are largely cash?

[Old Cowzilla]

Trades people make about 20% less out east compared to here in western Canada. I don't know how people can afford to live out there.

[SASKFARMER]

Brazil drought will intensify after new years and grain Companies will have to start paying since Bill paying is over.

Prices back up.

Land prices won't drop because investors are here to stay. it’s todays world.

money can be made at todays prices.

equipment prices are here to stay companies know and are building to sell not fill lots with inventory.

round up is dropping and so is nitrogen.

it will be a wetter summer.

electric is here but a new diesel electric like trains will come in tractors.

people will continue to move from east to west for jobs

trudeau will be done.

the Sask NDP will fail in fall but gain a few more seats.

have a great day.

[blackpowder]

Thinking more about the land market locally.
For the first time in many years, the cattlemen are flush with money and optimism. Land that was virtually unmarketable for the last 20 years, is selling for big prices now. Some of those sales make actual farmland look cheap in comparison.
Historically, the Biggest competition in this area is money from the energy industry, and more recently the forestry industry. They are back in the market again.
We are seeing a huge influx of people moving here from the rest of canada. Many ontarians have moved into our neighborhood lately.. they can sell a house in Toronto buy a quarter section here and have money left over, and a better paying job as a bonus.
Interest rates just don't seem to be having much effect. Possibly an indication that many sales are largely cash?

Just remember, those new Eastern immigrants may be more NDP support.

[littledoggie]

I believe the cities will soon belong to new immigrants. 430,000 new immigrants in the last 90 days alone. A city's worth. Statistics Canada released findings from the 2021 census which showed the property values among Canadians who owned a home:

$330,000 for Indigenous people
$433,000 for Canadian born white
$466,000 for Blacks
$467,000 for Latin Americans
$510,000 for Arab
$513,000 for Filipinos
$780,000 for Japanese
$795,000 Koreans
$839,000 West Asians
$944,000 - 1,000,000 Chinese

CMHC says the reason white and Indigenous groups had lower average house prices is their higher representation outside of large census metropolitan areas.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I believe the cities will soon belong to new immigrants. 430,000 new immigrants in the last 90 days alone. A city's worth. Statistics Canada released findings from the 2021 census which showed the property values among Canadians who owned a home:

$330,000 for Indigenous people
$433,000 for Canadian born white
$466,000 for Blacks
$467,000 for Latin Americans
$510,000 for Arab
$513,000 for Filipinos
$780,000 for Japanese
$795,000 Koreans
$839,000 West Asians
$944,000 - 1,000,000 Chinese

CMHC says the reason white and Indigenous groups had lower average house prices is their higher representation outside of large census metropolitan areas.

I heard an interesting statistic the other day. As it turns out, 90% of all statistics are made up.
In other words, I call BS on these stats.

[wade]

I heard an interesting statistic the other day. As it turns out, 90% of all statistics are made up.
In other words, I call BS on these stats.

So, only 90% of that statistic is made up?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

1. The really smart guys are sold out of wheat weeks ago at $9 plus and $16-17 canola. The next smartest guys are selling and hauling wheat now at $8.50-9.00 and Canola for $14-14.50 now. No snow to push, no heated grain, bills will be paid and money in the Bank when 4 feet of snow and -40 below hits in Jan/Feb/Mar....The ones doing nothing today will hate their life in -40 February when the sell for less. The only hope for canola will be the crushers, export market is done and will be cheap buyers, and the crushers can't buy it all. We need more crushers.

So by that logic, what does that tell us about the intelligence of the buyers and end users who are buying early in the year at higher prices than they could have got it later in the marketing year? And have been bidding a carry for future months.
Or is that irrelevant because they are simply working on margins?

Do farmers know Something they don't know, or do they know something we don't know?

[FarmJunkie]

I’m gonna go with Errol is right! Finally

[TOM4CWB]

Selling grain above the 80%tile of the 10 year average… seldom is a unprofitable decision…

Yield and cost of production are obviously part of this calculation…

buying options to insure uncovered grain sales are not going to risk unmanageable financial costs is prudent risk management.

so many farmers lock up grain sales when prices are dropping… it is human nature… self discipline is important when returns in the top 80% of long term inflation adjusted prices are being offered…

Merry Christmas! Many Blessings! Much Wisdom… being humble and forgiving go far to good common sense decisions!

Cheers!

[errolanderson]

Rate cuts, rate cuts, rate cuts. Talk of possible 4 to 7 cuts in 2024 stateside.

How is this rational policy behaviour? From inflation, inflation ‘till the cows come home’ to . . . ‘scared to death of deflation’ within weeks by our leaders in-the-know Meanwhile, the S&P approaches all-time highs as investors confident Fed has their back.

Welcome to reality and 2024 (IMO). Commodities already leading-the-way . . . .

[Old Cowzilla]

You would think they would leave the rates at 5% after all it's the free money that's causing the defaults anyway

[Old Cowzilla]

Oh wait election coming up down south so there will be lots of free stuff coming up. But at our cost I am sure and many others.

[errolanderson]

U.S. mortgage rates now plunging. Over the past two (2) months, mortgage rates experiencing the fastest decline since 2008 crisis.

And stock markets surging to all-time highs. A total disconnect of equities rallying on rate cuts and economic despair.