Predictions and Observations

[TASFarms]

Guys that’s were predicting a crash this time last year we’re off alittle. It amazes me how much this can, can be kicked.

[blackpowder]

Some investor buyers getting nervous at $1M+/quarter here.

[Old Cowzilla]

Retail sales through Nov, Dec coming in 2.5 % better than year ago . Restaurant sales good ,unemployment numbers still good still shortage in labour around the country. People saving money on heating bills and winter work cloths will put that money somewhere else. Sunny plus 2 here today and no wind pretty nice.

[errolanderson]

It's a Santa Claus rally, they say . . . . U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio now sits at a staggering 120%. At what point will investors lose confidence?

Tread carefully with gold, heavily overbought (IMO). Deflation is a precious metal killer.
[email]errolanderson@substack.com[/email]

[errolanderson]

AGRIVILLERS NOTE:
The M2 money supply stateside is collapsing. This is highly deflationary. Unemployment is apt to soar in 2024.
Deflation impacts everyone.

Central bankers total lost puppies right now despite thousands of PHDs figuring things out. (My apologies for sarcasm).

Cash remains king for some time now. U.S. housing market in trouble. Bank of Canada, good grief. My opinion, not widely shared.

Errol’s Commodity Wire

[wheatking16]

Anticipate a 1-4 week pullback for the following:

US Homebuilders (XHB)
DOW (DIA)
NASDAQ (QQQ)
S&P (SPY)
20- YEAR (TLT)
US Financial (XLF)
Russell 2K (IWM)

M2 could get a slight increase here.

[wheatking16]

The USD is inversely correlated with the stock market, and the USDCAD and DXY are poised for a 1-4 week rise.

[fjlip]

Doomsday scenarios....should have QUIT a year ago, auction past spring....but it's DRY! I pray it stays DRY till August then!
Volcanoes, Frost, dry, floods should cure prices.

I predict anything can happen...I will be right. Happy New Year!

[biglentil]

The Fed didn't win against inflation they through in the towel. The dollar will always be sacrificed to protect the system. Cpi is going to remain stubborn and get a whole lot worse I predict. We are moving from a unipolar world with the US having a firm grip to a multipolar world with the rise of ghe Brics and the end of the Petro dollar as the Saudis entertain trade outside the USD for oil. This dedollarization is coming home to roost and those dollars will inevitably drive up commodity prices.

"The accelerated phase of the commodity cycle, NATO's increasing supply of weapons to Ukraine, and the strengthening Chinese-Russian military alliance analysed alongside the historical patterns that led to WW1 and WW2, all point to WW3 having already started." Therefore, "inflation will become much higher than central banks predict." ~ David Murrin War Cycles Intensify [url]https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/has-ww3-started[/url]

[ajl]

Pump gas locally 1.04. Natural gas for home heating $1.50/GJ. Bought some fertilizer yesterday Urea: $750 vs paid $900 last spring. That may go lower yet by Feb so will wait and see on the rest. Worried about canola in bin. $16 off combine vs 14.50 after 3 months of storage. Has the market ever been that bearish? Just checked the price of silver $24USD. Has been there for more than a decade despite predictions of it soaring for longer than that. Carbon tax will be 2x the cost of the nat gas on home heating in Jan. Taxes are actually deflationary in the economy as they make discretionary income disappear. Used combine prices down but not having as much luck in the used tractor market yet.