pricing 2024 crop

[AlbertaFarmer5]

EU ****seed production forecast to decline by 0.8 Mn T in 2024, following sharply lower winter ****seed sowings and detrimental weather conditions. Biggest declines expected in Ger and Romania. First OIL WORLD estimates in the Flash report of Jan 18

My neighbor recently returned from Germany. He said big areas have been so wet that winter seeded crops ( wheat and ****seed) acres are way down. I assume those acres still get seeded to something next spring, not sure how that affects total production, at the very least it postpones the harvest dates.

[blackpowder]

Noticed how quotes on future months all higher now compared to Dec when every month forecast more depressing than last. Record short contracts something has to be done with them? yes: no ?

Appears to be a normal carry, no more than the TV of $.

[SASKFARMER]

2024 could be a challenging year with these prices.

[BTO780]

2024 could be a challenging year with these prices.

It’s challenging now, wait a yr. Going to get ugly.

[wmoebis]

I don't follow pricing much. Are Canada's prices the same as in the USA? Does the $ value difference have much effect? Just wondering how that works out.

[SASKFARMER]

Oh yea at this rate we will be back to $6 dollar wheat and 10 or under canola.

[TOM4CWB]

Just did a weather seminar with Empire Weather.
La Nina projected to take hold strong… for June July… Hot and Dry for western Canada.

Volatility will be obviously very probable… promises to be a very interesting summer 2024!!!

Anyone seriously in risk practical management … would avoid cash pricing 2024 crop… without upside protection… very expensive… so why????

Many Blessings… and the Fear of God is the beginning of all Wisdom… drought is very often employed by God… when humanity rebels against God…with Evil… which would be difficult to argue against at this time…

If you created all life…humanity , our planet…and the Universe… what would you do about now??

Pray for Mercy, Peace, Repentance…or…it is time to expect difficulties and very wild ‘natural disasters’ as promised by the Word of the Creator for this rebellious generation!

As it was in the time of Noah… so it will be when humanity denies the existence of the Great Creator of the Universe!!!

Cheers!

[cropgrower]

Mabe i will keep my conola until next july so ! if it turns out very dry price may move up a bit

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Javier Blas ([url]https://twitter.com/JavierBlas[/url])
@JavierBlas ([url]https://twitter.com/JavierBlas[/url])
·
16h ([url]https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1749428658224132279[/url])
Another hike for olive oil prices in the wholesale market. Spanish extra virgin olive oil is now changing hands >€9,000 per metric ton (~$9,900). It's a question of when, rather than if, prices would surpass $10,000. The previous all-time high was set in 2006 at ~$6,200

[Old Cowzilla]

1/2 the world parties while the other 1/2 is at war. Very hard to figure out these markets. Our $ is loosing some steam perhaps that might get more buyer interest.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I'm still struggling with this no demand story. Canola seed export demand is slow, but crush is way ahead. Crush is way above the volume forcast.

Isn't this a good thing?
Value adding in Canada, instead of exporting a raw commodity?
Isn't this what was expected to happen when we built or expanded crush capacity to meet the proposed renewable diesel/SAF?

Statistics Canada's December Oilseed crushing statistics report shows 943,302 metric tons (mt) of canola crushed in December. This volume has increased month-over-month for a third time in four months, with favorable December weather conditions being supportive despite the holiday season.

This volume is above the 826,445 mt crushed in the same month of 2022-23 and is above the 858,221 mt needed this month to stay on track to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) crush forecast of 10.5 million metric tons (mmt), which was left unchanged in this month's AAFC forecast for the current crop year and also repeated for the 2024-25 forecast. It is also above the three-year average of 811,906 mt.

During the first five months of the crop year, 4.578 mmt has been crushed, up 14% from one year ago when the 4 mmt mark had just been crossed, while 12.7% higher than the three-year average for this period. The total crush is 203,000 mt higher than the steady volume needed to reach the current 10.5 mmt AAFC crush forecast.

And another story:

In December 2023, the import of ****seed and sunseed meal continued to rise in China. Deliveries of ****seed meal were 272,000 tons (221,000 tons in December 2022), and sunseed meal was 353,000 tons (309,000 tons). The largest suppliers of sunseed meal were Ukraine with 218,000 tons and Bulgaria with 129,000 tons. For ****seed meal, Canada supplied 168,000 tons, the UAE 50,000 tons, and Ukraine 40,000 tons. Throughout 2023, the import of major meals in China was 8.7 million tons (+12%), including 2.9 million tons of sunseed meal, 2.3 million tons of ****seed meal, and 1.4 million tons of palm kernel meal.

[blackpowder]

Local crush still has margins at just under $200/t. That says all crush flat out.
Meal goes to Cal. Oil mostly China if memory correct.
Their adding a facility to further refine some oil.
We'll never grow enough for planes.
But more crush here a very good thing. How much more of today's $200 could go to basis if they needed to stay running?