Canola acres for 2024. In the tank or increasing?

[SASKFARMER]

Seeing the shit show happening in canola has me wondering what guys are thinking for spring seeded acres.

We made great money growing wheat peas and malt barley last year.

Maybe it's time to take canola off the plate for some of our acreage in 2024.

The market is telling us to not grow them any.

The market knows. Ha ha.

But really the most expensive crop to grow is a shit show.

So here is the question for all producers what are your plans for canola acres?

Crop insurance won't save the drought area in 2024 with canola also a factor.

I'm thinking.

3500 canola
4500 hrs
1000 barley
1000 yellow peas.

Compared to

5000 canola
4000 hrs
600 peas
400 barley.

This market drop is a joke with all the problems in South America and beyond.

[therealnorthernf]

Our canola acres are decreasing.. 25-35% Ground has already had the fert applied, so we will fill those acres with a cereal..

[BTO780]

$12.88 and $75 ac seed cost.

wall to wall canolie.

25,000 ac on our farm.

I will grow more since SKF is decreasing.

[furrowtickler]

There won’t be any extra acres that’s for sure unless something drastically turns in the canola market by April

[BTO780]

When they don’t want something I do the opposite.

[Sodbuster]

Small decrease in acres, mostly in the driest areas unless we get a significant moisture before seeding. My acres will remain stable.

[SASKFARMER]

BTO that’s funny but you don’t have 25000 acres. And it’s dry there.

yes when the market does this I usually do the opposite but we made great on cereals last year and it looks good again.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

With current prices, my 2023 wheat acres had >$150 more profit than canola. With excellent yields on both. With far more risk to grpwing canola than wheat, too much rain, frost, hail, bugs all worse for canola than wheat.
Wheat has been consistently more profitable than canola since 2018 here.
With these numbers I keep threatening to grow nothing but wheat, but I also keep assuming that this ratio is not sustainable, and will correct about the time I have no canola acres to take advantage, so I keep growing canola, but less every year.
With all my fertilizer bought early summer and in the bins, and seed and herbicide bought this fall/ early winter, my 2024 acres aren't very flexible.
Marketing based on last years results never seems to end well. But this trend has been consistent year after year.

Massive planned increase in crush capacity here and in the US to meet the supposed renewable diesel or SAF demand.
Meeting that new demand would in theory require high enough prices to gain acres from other crops.
But from what I can tell, without mandates, renewable diesel is very uncompetitive with actual diesel even at todays oilseed prices. So it is unlikely that crushers will be paying even more to lose even more money.
Something has to give. Either these new plants or expansions will get cancelled, or idled, or else they will successfully lobby governments for higher mandates or subsidies to make it profitable.

[Old Cowzilla]

But weren't we attending meeting 2 years ago telling us we need to bump up canola production by 25-30%. Wonder if there will be any big $ contracts floating around at Ag. Days ?

[consuelo]

what is everybody thinking on lentils?

[dave4441]

what is everybody thinking on lentils?

Acres will increase by about 25%. Thats my guess. Specifically on green lentils.

[consuelo]

25% seems alot but not in bigger scheme of things. a few hundred thousand more acres is easy and with prices in the $30/bu+ range for now why stop at only 25%?

[fcr]

Canola local terminal today 13.22/bu. Durum 12.86,CWRS 8.68. Looks like durum the winner now and prob going forward in our area.

[LEP]

Acres will increase by about 25%. Thats my guess. Specifically on green lentils.

There will be an increase, but not everyone is increasing. We normally have 2,400 to 2,700 acres of reds and next year for a few different reasons we are down to 1,100.

[BTO780]

Green and maple pea acres will be high.
Which ever way you slice it there really isn’t anything to get excited about.