Wheat

[flea beetle]

How much more cheap wheat can Russia dump on the market if they have been doing so for several months?
sooner or later they will need to keep some sticks at home to keep their war fed no ?

All one merchandiser keeps telling me is get your wheat sold before June, as that is when Russia’s new crop gets harvested. And by her account, it is supposed to be a huge record crop this year.

The puzzling thing is she keeps phoning every week to see if I will sell, yet tells me it’s going down….not sure how to react to that. My experience says if they are phoning for it, the price is going to go up. But it has been declining up till this little bump we just had.

[agstar77]

Their job is to move volume , price is irrelevant .

[blackpowder]

Haven't checked lately, but basis on wheat has been quite good. They need the volume. They have a home for it. They offset purchases instantly. Futures irrelevant to all that. And yes, the person calling you is paid on performance.
Don't you wish you had sold when they were calling in October?

[furrowtickler]

Haven't checked lately, but basis on wheat has been quite good. They need the volume. They have a home for it. They offset purchases instantly. Futures irrelevant to all that. And yes, the person calling you is paid on performance.
Don't you wish you had sold when they were calling in October?

Yup , huge mistake now so far
had a deal for $9.50 for 90% of it.
Everywhere else outside this area was $9.75 to $10
Decision was made to try to get what others were getting , that extra $.25 , well that all disappeared within a week , now trying to catch a falling knife and dealing with snow . arrrrrrrrr

[furrowtickler]

Yes might do a basis contract and pray futures has a run before August . Silly I know , but is an option possibly

[flea beetle]

Got greedy on the wheat and canola. Sold the barley and oats in fall. Win some and lose some. Reading one guy that figures commodities will rally $1-$1.50 in the next month or two. That would put us close to harvest levels. Fingers crossed.

Yes black powder. If I had a crystal ball, everything would have been gone off the combine this year!

[blackpowder]

Oh brother. And my theory of seasonals begs the question, up from what, to where??
$10 looks impossible now.

[ColevilleH2S]

If anyone supports a US led proxy war with Russia they must be nuts.

The US made Russia invade Ukraine, and in other news the Brooklyn Bridge is for sale

[furrowtickler]

Actually the past 3-4 year’s November been the best price in some cases .
Odd , over the 35 years I have been stumbling through this

[furrowtickler]

The US made Russia invade Ukraine, and in other news the Brooklyn Bridge is for sale

Well the US and the west sat bye and watched for 18 months and did SFA while Russia amassed their army on the border. That’s a fact
Not taking a side here but wtf , yes Putin bad but the entire world sat back and let it happen, meanwhile the Bidens were in there “tits” deep in corruption, and all act surprised that Putin finally said enough? Putin took Crimea during Obama , Zero during Trump and Ukraine with Biden …. Hmmm
is amazing how people totally forgot WTF started this . It was not unprovoked even slightly.
yes Putin bad , but if Mexico pulled the same stunt as Ukraine, the same exact situation would be happening just south of us

yes I know Putin bad , Zelenski good .
not siding with either
they are all to blame for the horrific killing of innocent, no different the Israel and Gaza
itsa a *** show all over

[furrowtickler]

Anyone recall what happened to Ukraine’s opposition leadership before Zelenski got gifted power , all opposition prisoned ?

they are all in the same boat sailing too their 1 % tune .
Trudeau in that boat as well with his rainbow , sunglasses and socks , but just in the sideline’s because he is completely irrelevant on the world stage now .
And should be

[TSIPP]

The US made Russia invade Ukraine, and in other news the Brooklyn Bridge is for sale

Hey, I’m not picking sides, it is what it is, Putin won’t back down and I can’t blame him, anyone supporting high heels should read a little more or follow your fore fathers in reverse and help the Ukraine out and beat back the Russians.

[foragefarmer]

The US made Russia invade Ukraine, and in other news the Brooklyn Bridge is for sale

Have to give them some credit, they've finally figure out that Putin's unjustified invasion of Ukraine is the reason why their wheat prices are in the shitter.

[WiltonRanch]

Russia probably takes Ukraine this summer. There’s no way Ukraine holds out much longer unless by some miracle they persevere. However, Russia is a pariah and will be froze out as they will not stop there. So many have been fooled by Russian propaganda and Maskerovka to believe they are the victim of NATO encroachment. Far as wheat is concerned I think it goes hard until it doesn’t in Russia. What could be an eventual possibility though is sanctions in general and the crumbling infrastructure reduces theirs and the conquered ukraines export viability. Besides, Ukraine becomes unfarmable as it’s a battleground. If the Russian sympathies are drowned out by the reality of the situation in the White House, and Trump as much as he hates China, a few threats to China with sanctions causes them to freeze out Russia too. China only exists with happy trading partners. Russia only has oil and wheat to give them but China needs viable currency in return for production of manufactured goods. It’s a ball of wax but interesting situation to play out in the next 6 months I think. Trump will win and that is even more fun to watch.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Are they unloading wheat as fast as possible at any price, in preparation for possible sanctions on grains? Now that prices are lower, and world starvation has been postponed, the west can justify sanctions on food, whereas in 2022, at high prices, and with the media full of stories about impending food shortages, cutting off the worlds biggest exporter wouldn't have been a politically popular move.