Wheat

[WiltonRanch]

Are they unloading wheat as fast as possible at any price, in preparation for possible sanctions on grains? Now that prices are lower, and world starvation has been postponed, the west can justify sanctions on food, whereas in 2022, at high prices, and with the media full of stories about impending food shortages, cutting off the worlds biggest exporter wouldn't have been a politically popular move.

Yes. You nailed it.

[TASFarms]

Russia probably takes Ukraine this summer. There’s no way Ukraine holds out much longer unless by some miracle they persevere. However, Russia is a pariah and will be froze out as they will not stop there. So many have been fooled by Russian propaganda and Maskerovka to believe they are the victim of NATO encroachment. Far as wheat is concerned I think it goes hard until it doesn’t in Russia. What could be an eventual possibility though is sanctions in general and the crumbling infrastructure reduces theirs and the conquered ukraines export viability. Besides, Ukraine becomes unfarmable as it’s a battleground. If the Russian sympathies are drowned out by the reality of the situation in the White House, and Trump as much as he hates China, a few threats to China with sanctions causes them to freeze out Russia too. China only exists with happy trading partners. Russia only has oil and wheat to give them but China needs viable currency in return for production of manufactured goods. It’s a ball of wax but interesting situation to play out in the next 6 months I think. Trump will win and that is even more fun to watch.

The brix trading partners is a whole other ball of wax that isn’t get much attention. Seems like it’s expanding more and more as time goes

[fjlip]

During the WAR, very farmable apparently...exporting nearly double us.

"Ukraine exports over 1.3 mln tonnes of grain in first week of March - According to the State Customs Service, as of March 8, since the beginning of 2023/24 MY, Ukraine exported 30.989 mln tonnes of grains and pulses. This includes 1.319 mln tonnes shipped in the current month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine reported.
At the same time, as of the same date last year, the total shipments reached 33.458 mln tonnes, and in March – 1.161 mln tonnes. In terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, the following were exported:
- wheat – 12.375 mln tonnes (in March – 603 thsd tonnes);
- barley – 1.761 mln tonnes (138 thsd tonnes);
- rye – 1 thousand tons (0);
- corn – 16.569 mln tonnes (574 thsd tonnes).
The total export of Ukrainian flour as of March 8 is also lower y-o-y and is estimated at 74.9 thsd tonnes (in March - 0.9 thsd tonnes), including 71.1 thsd tonnesof wheat flour (0.9 thsd tonnes). ) Total all grains 1,315,000. Canada exported 798,500 MT of all grains in the week ended March 03

Russia...The export of wheat from Russia in March may amount to 4.4-4.5 mln tonnes, which will exceed the figure of the previous month (4.24 mln tonnes) but will not reach the level of the same period a year earlier.

Over triple Ukraine, 5.6 times Canadian exports. They are just fine, WE have problems.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Yes. You nailed it.

Yet, the perception doesn't match reality. Worldwide wheat stocks to use and ending stocks all lower now than in 2022.

[furrowtickler]

Yet, the perception doesn't match reality. Worldwide wheat stocks to use and ending stocks all lower now than in 2022.

That’s the unusual part of this whole situation

[AlbertaFarmer5]

That’s the unusual part of this whole situation

Almost makes one conclude that fundamentals really don't matter. Might as well just follow wheatking16's technical advice.

[fjlip]

Planting away, already.
Spring planting underway in 12 regions of Ukraine - The spring planting campaign has already started in 12 regions of Ukraine. This was reported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine on March 8. As of March 7, a total of 68,000 ha have been planted in Ukraine. This includes 4.3 thsd ha under wheat, 38.9 thsd ha under barley, 23.3 thsd ha under peas, and 1.5 thsd ha under oats. The largest areas are currently planted in the following areas:
Odesa – 33 thsd ha (0.5 thsd ha of wheat, 17.5 thsd ha of barley, 14.3 thsd ha of peas and 0.7 ha of oats);
Mykolayivska – 18,400 ha (0,700 ha of wheat, 11,500 ha of barley, 6,000 ha of peas and 0,200 ha of oats);
Ternopilska – 5.8 thsd ha (0.8 thsd ha of wheat, 4.3 thsd ha of barley and 0.7 thsd ha of peas);
Vinnytsia – 3.4 thsd ha (1.8 thsd ha of wheat, 0.4 thsd ha of barley and 1.2 thsd ha of peas);
Khmelnytska – 2.5 thsd ha (2.2 thsd ha of barley and 0.3 thsd ha of oats). (APK)

[sumdumguy]

What happened to all the land mines all over wheat-growing region?

[poorboy]

During the WAR, very farmable apparently...exporting nearly double us.

"Ukraine exports over 1.3 mln tonnes of grain in first week of March - According to the State Customs Service, as of March 8, since the beginning of 2023/24 MY, Ukraine exported 30.989 mln tonnes of grains and pulses. This includes 1.319 mln tonnes shipped in the current month, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine reported.
At the same time, as of the same date last year, the total shipments reached 33.458 mln tonnes, and in March – 1.161 mln tonnes. In terms of crops, since the beginning of the current season, the following were exported:
- wheat – 12.375 mln tonnes (in March – 603 thsd tonnes);
- barley – 1.761 mln tonnes (138 thsd tonnes);
- rye – 1 thousand tons (0);
- corn – 16.569 mln tonnes (574 thsd tonnes).
The total export of Ukrainian flour as of March 8 is also lower y-o-y and is estimated at 74.9 thsd tonnes (in March - 0.9 thsd tonnes), including 71.1 thsd tonnesof wheat flour (0.9 thsd tonnes). ) Total all grains 1,315,000. Canada exported 798,500 MT of all grains in the week ended March 03

Russia...The export of wheat from Russia in March may amount to 4.4-4.5 mln tonnes, which will exceed the figure of the previous month (4.24 mln tonnes) but will not reach the level of the same period a year earlier.

Over triple Ukraine, 5.6 times Canadian exports. They are just fine, WE have problems.

If those Ukraine planting numbers end up being correct, almost no wheat being seeded (unless it is winter wheat already seeded and not in these numbers) and mostly barley and pulse crops.

If the barley and pulse production is true, the Ukraine should be able to supply Chinas needs and cut Canada out of the China market.

Not looking good for barley.

[fjlip]

What happened to all the land mines all over wheat-growing region?

Were there any? We never heard of clearing any.

They can grow every crop, it's the climate!

"Ukraine, particularly in the last few months, has been exporting much more grain than anyone expected despite more than two years of war with neighboring Russia. This, combined with two bumper Russian wheat crops, has led to an enormous surplus of Black Sea grain shipments over the last two seasons compared with what was initially predicted, a surplus that could easily replace entire export programs of other top suppliers. Ukraine’s recent success has been limiting for traditional grain exporters like the United States, despite a boost in U.S. supplies versus last year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday raised Ukraine’s 2023-24 wheat exports for a fifth consecutive month and corn exports rose for a second straight month. Based on the estimate history, the expanding export pegs are linked with better-than-expected shipment performance and not bigger crops. Ukraine has been successfully operating its own Black Sea shipment corridor since August after Russia quit the original initiative in July, despite a significant number of Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure since then. Kyiv reported record February export volumes for all goods.

Nobody ships if risk of ship sinking...

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Were there any? We never heard of clearing any.

They can grow every crop, it's the climate!

"Ukraine, particularly in the last few months, has been exporting much more grain than anyone expected despite more than two years of war with neighboring Russia. This, combined with two bumper Russian wheat crops, has led to an enormous surplus of Black Sea grain shipments over the last two seasons compared with what was initially predicted, a surplus that could easily replace entire export programs of other top suppliers. Ukraine’s recent success has been limiting for traditional grain exporters like the United States, despite a boost in U.S. supplies versus last year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday raised Ukraine’s 2023-24 wheat exports for a fifth consecutive month and corn exports rose for a second straight month. Based on the estimate history, the expanding export pegs are linked with better-than-expected shipment performance and not bigger crops. Ukraine has been successfully operating its own Black Sea shipment corridor since August after Russia quit the original initiative in July, despite a significant number of Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure since then. Kyiv reported record February export volumes for all goods.

Nobody ships if risk of ship sinking...

I think I may have posted this before. But there is some speculation that the reason why Ukraine's grain infrastructure has remained intact, and shipping has been allowed to move unrestricted, is because that was a condition of China's support for Russia.
Which stands to reason. China needs cheap grain imports. Russia needs the industrial and technological support of China's manufacturing base. And Russia needs China to import their resources for Capital.

The pundits in the West were assuring us that the first thing Russia would do is destroy all of the infrastructure in ukraine, which would have justified the large risk premium in the grain markets.

Now that the war has progressed to a more mobile phase, what happens to grain markets if the fate of Odessa is in question?
I could make bullish or bearish arguments for the outcome of that.

[fjlip]

"Russia would do is destroy all of the infrastructure in Ukraine"

So that is obviously not happening, what is the future?

[shtferbrains]

"Russia would do is destroy all of the infrastructure in Ukraine"

So that is obviously not happening, what is the future?

Why would they destroy it if Putin expects to make money off it in the near future?

Same might be said for any crop that gets planted?

[WiltonRanch]

Russia was stealing Ukrainian grain and selling it before. So what would it be to their advantage to wreck crops or shipping facilities?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

While we are all fixated on what's happening in the Black Sea region, and it's effect on our wheat markets. Keep in mind that India is the world's second largest wheat producer. Second only to china. Producing more than three times as much as Canada does. Formerly an exporter, possibly becoming a permanent importer if current trends hold.
India produces as much wheat as all of Russia and Ukraine combined.
And their stocks keep declining.
I expect this is going to be the demand story going forward.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/article-indias-wheat-stocks-hit-seven-year-low-after-record-state-sale/