Wheat

[fjlip]

Summary of their situation, good info

Protesting EU Green Shyt!

[errolanderson]

Global wheat fallout is tied by massive Russia wheat crop being discounted into export market. This has triggered a price war between EU and Russia. MATIF Paris wheat in steady downtrend. Russia needs hard currency incoming. Discounts everywhere.

Secondly, China’s deflation is intensifying. This is bearish global commodities.OPEC’s losing battle . . . .

[email]errolanderson@substack.com[/email]

[SASKFARMER]

Ok, so Russia needs money because Biden won't stop the BS war and Americans are getting screwed on wheat?

[foragefarmer]

Ok, so Russia needs money because Biden won't stop the BS war and Americans are getting screwed on wheat?

Did you venture out of Mar-a-Lago and get to much sun?

[flea beetle]

Geeze, some people sure don’t like to see others get ahead. Jealousy is a crippling emotion.

[TSIPP]

If anyone supports a US led proxy war with Russia they must be nuts.

[TSIPP]

Geeze, some people sure don’t like to see others get ahead. Jealousy is a crippling emotion.

I’ll admit that I’m kinda jealous of the grain farmers, ranching has been mostly an unreal letdown in the profits margin, 3 or 4 decent years out of 25 kinda sucks but I’m way too stupid or stubborn to change.

[fjlip]

Not bearish...

Exactly two years ago, Chicago wheat futures stamped all-time highs after top exporter Russia invaded fellow supplier Ukraine, immediately throwing almost 30% of global wheat exports into question. But on Wednesday, CBOT wheat slipped to its lowest level since August 2020, joining the ranks with corn and soybeans, which last week also notched their lowest prices since late 2020. In theory, global supply outlooks for wheat are not necessarily bearish, especially compared with those for corn and soybeans, though this wheat storyline clearly remains repetitive and non-threatening in traders’ eyes.

U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates suggest 2023-24 global wheat ending stocks will decline for a fourth consecutive season to eight-year lows. Eleven-year lows are on the docket when excluding serial grain stockpiler China from the mix. Isolating major wheat exporters, stocks-to-use, a measure of supply versus demand, is seen at a three-year low of 14.8% in 2023-24, down from 15.9% in the prior season. The recent 10-year average is about 16.9%. For corn and soybeans, global stocks-to-use is pegged at 23% and 21%, respectively, marking four- and five-year highs. The latest prognosis for wheat exporters is not much different from what USDA had projected for 2021-22 back in March 2022, roughly two weeks after the Russian invasion. Predicted stocks-to-use of 14% at that time was down from 15% estimated for 2020-21 and scheduled to reach 14-year lows. Instead, wheat exporter stocks-to-use in 2021-22 rose on the year to 15.4%, as skyrocketing prices likely choked off some demand in the second half of that year. Stocks-to-use rose again in the following year based on an unexpectedly solid Ukrainian export effort and a huge surge in Russian supplies. This expanding trend is already happening for 2023-24, as the 14.8% stocks-to-use among major exporters is up from 13.5% predicted last September, for example.

[furrowtickler]

How much more cheap wheat can Russia dump on the market if they have been doing so for several months?
sooner or later they will need to keep some sticks at home to keep their war fed no ?

[Sodbuster]

Hoping we turned the corner, first Friday in a while that the board ended green as we head into the weekend. Wheat and canola hopefully have found a bottom and maybe a last push soon to buy some acres. Not sure what moisture concerns are in western Canada at this time but most of us were dry coming into winter.