As I look at what is unfolding with ethanol and the demand for high yield wheats it is apparent in today's world that using history as a guide for the future is setting yourself up to be unable to profit from opportunites that present themselves. In today's world things are moving so quickly that by the time opportunity becomes reality you are too late to react. Example
Western Canada has built it's wheat production system based on quality and minimal diversity. We continue in a system where we deny opportunity if in any way it is perceived as a threat to what is currently in place. We have evolved to where we produce a huge supply of high grade wheat, exceeding the demands in the market place. We have paid a yield price for this quality and as we move towards a system that is more quantity based, we find ourselves lacking the tools we need.Look what we have in place. Soft wheats whether they are spring or winter have had little support and struggle to keep breeding programs in place. Yet it is these soft wheats that show the most promise in our region as ethanol feedstocks. We have not had a winter wheat variety registered in Western Canada in the last 5 years because as soon as the yield potential of these varieties goes up they can't pass KVD.If we look at wheat yields in other parts of the world where moisture is not the main limiting factor we can see that we are far behind. Wheat breeding programs can easily take 10 years. The opportunity is now, not in 10 years. As a producer if you have a choice between a 100 wheat crop at $4.00 a bushel locked in ahead of planting and cash in your pocket at delivery or a hard red spring wheat crop at 70 bushels where grade and price is an unknown, you tell me where producers will turn. If producers can understand this why is it that those who establish our regulatory system cannot. So when we talk about all the premiums we get from the market place we have to consider at what cost. We are loosing millions every year because those in charge believe that what worked well for the last 20 years is the model for the next 20.
Western Canada has built it's wheat production system based on quality and minimal diversity. We continue in a system where we deny opportunity if in any way it is perceived as a threat to what is currently in place. We have evolved to where we produce a huge supply of high grade wheat, exceeding the demands in the market place. We have paid a yield price for this quality and as we move towards a system that is more quantity based, we find ourselves lacking the tools we need.Look what we have in place. Soft wheats whether they are spring or winter have had little support and struggle to keep breeding programs in place. Yet it is these soft wheats that show the most promise in our region as ethanol feedstocks. We have not had a winter wheat variety registered in Western Canada in the last 5 years because as soon as the yield potential of these varieties goes up they can't pass KVD.If we look at wheat yields in other parts of the world where moisture is not the main limiting factor we can see that we are far behind. Wheat breeding programs can easily take 10 years. The opportunity is now, not in 10 years. As a producer if you have a choice between a 100 wheat crop at $4.00 a bushel locked in ahead of planting and cash in your pocket at delivery or a hard red spring wheat crop at 70 bushels where grade and price is an unknown, you tell me where producers will turn. If producers can understand this why is it that those who establish our regulatory system cannot. So when we talk about all the premiums we get from the market place we have to consider at what cost. We are loosing millions every year because those in charge believe that what worked well for the last 20 years is the model for the next 20.
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