WTF Wheat taking a fall!

[ajl]

March 1 is the John Deere low so I expect we have cash flow selling. X9, land payments and land rents are calling for cash. Planning to send out rent checks next week as have the cash on hand. Around here, in the marginal land areas, there is a lot of new land that came or is coming out of hay and pasture so that is what will keep input prices supported until after seeding. I did sell out of feed barley this week so that is good.

[blackpowder]

No one complains when liquidity drives canola to $22. Works both ways.

[furrowtickler]

Be nice if liquidity drove machinery / land prices down 50% to keep in line

[goalieguy847]

No no no... now we see the panic set in. Now rents will skyrocket because people need to keep or gain land to pay for equipment...
there is a ton of grain left up in our neck of the woods. This is just selling to pay off bills and many countries not able to handle inflation. Its way more hand to mouth grain buying... countries are now more worried about their own food security than ever. The grain supercycle is over... next comes a 4 yr spanking on our own self imposed debt load and spending.
Markets will jump back but people better start thinking of commodity prices from 10 yrs ago and reset their brains on sell points and net revenue.

[furrowtickler]

Definitely going to be a shock to the system for many

[Old Cowzilla]

All we need now is mother nature to throw a curve ball and we will have the makings of the 80's. You guys remember the good old days don't you

[Hamloc]

Certainly will be many, myself included who have not sold the bulk of their canola that will be shaking their head and adding up how many dollars poor marketing has left on the table. On the plus side backgrounding my calves payed off as they sold for 50% more than last year. Glad I still have my cows.

[fjlip]

It's not poor marketing, it's a STRANGE year. USDA outlook "knows" that the 2024 crop will lose money....in February?

Like they were TOLD, or will make it happen? A hell of a lot is unknown till crop is harvested.

IGC says 2024-25 OUTLOOK

• Wheat stockpiles are expected to be slightly tighter than expected last month, with inventories seen at an eight-year low
• Corn area is seen a bit higher y/y, while the barley area is expected to be smaller than average and little changed y/y

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) dropped to its lowest since October 2020, down by 7% m/m. Global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is forecast to increase by 43m t in 2023/24, to a record 2,310m, as a much larger maize harvest (+71m y/y) more than compensates for declines for some other crops, including wheat (-15m) and barley (-8m). With uptake at a new all-time high, world closing stocks are expected to tighten again, dropping for a seventh year in a row, to 589m t (-7m). Trade is placed 9m t lower y/y, at 419m, including smaller wheat, maize and barley shipments.

Hmmmm?

Shitter lacking backward Russians, will have 3rd bumper crop in a row...not helping prices.

During a war Ukraine exports way MORE than Canada?


Hmmmm?

[furrowtickler]

I guess the “sanctions” were / are useless .
In fact detrimental as Russia found ways around sanctions and now flooding markets with cheap grains and oilseeds .
A lot of told ya so’s showing up now but absolutely no one anywhere predicted this commodity collapse 4 months ago , other the Errol I guess

[wheatking16]

I guess the “sanctions” were / are useless .
In fact detrimental as Russia found ways around sanctions and now flooding markets with cheap grains and oilseeds .
A lot of told ya so’s showing up now but absolutely no one anywhere predicted this commodity collapse 4 months ago , other the Errol I guess

Some have been bearish for the past year and half.

[ColevilleH2S]

I guess the “sanctions” were / are useless...

It sounds like you are under the mistaken impression sanctions on Russia applied to food.

[furrowtickler]

It sounds like you are under the mistaken impression sanctions on Russia applied to food.

Yup guess so .