NO TRAFFIC on Agriville Feb 25/26

[Hamloc]

I just checked the Canola Council strategic plan from 2014. Which is still valid according to their website.
52 bushels and 26 million Tonnes by 2025. That is 2 years away, and would need to increase production by 42% in 2 years to achieve that production number. In fact we are still below the 2013 baseline used in the strategic plan. 10years later.

The 2013 baseline yield was 40 bu/acre. The average yield in the 10 years since is 38.61 bu/acre.

All the money poured into research, the latest seed technology and genetics, placed with the latest seeding technology, fertilized with all the newest snake oils, protected with ever greater chemistries in pesticides, harvested with ever more efficient combines and methods, bigger, supposedly more efficient farms, all combined haven't gained anything.

Seeing stats such as this, gives a whole new perspective on the communist 5 year plans. If we can't do it with every resource available, highly motivated entrepreneurs, and the free market to motivate us, how could it ever have worked in a command economy? Even the threat of being sent to a gulag or worse can't fix the weather.

Meanwhile, Brazil soybean yields have gained 22% over that same period, while acres grew 50%.

AB5 I was thinking the other day where would the canola price be if we had achieved the 26 million tonnes of total production. I believe we were just over 18 million tonnes and we have had prices drop by just under 28% from the end of August to now. Where is the market for all this canola that the Canola council wants us to produce? And how do seed companies justify the steep rise in the price of seed over the last 5 years?

[fjlip]

Canola fund positions

[fjlip]

Carryout

[goalieguy847]

Bayer seed 2021
" seed treatment caused massive germ issues... sweep under rug.... charge more for seed in 2022"

Pioneer seed 2022 " someone forgot to turn the pivots on during seed canola production and more than half production didnt happen"

2023,2024,2025 and every subsequent year -- every grain company... " our new canola is the best ever... will outyield anything youve ever grown....."

Meanwhile.... 5440/ L130/ 75-42..... " ohhhh reaaallllyyyyyy"



Canola seed companies can justify the price increases becauses because we keep paying for them. And for some reason.. despite canola not really being a winner.. everyone and their dog thinks that its the be all and end all money maker.

Heres a thought for reference.
IF growing canola got banned completely and entirely ( or came down to .... 2$/ bushel) what would you be comfortable paying in rent?
when negotiating rent north of Calgary... everyone automatically thinks of how many canola crops they can get out of that lease.

Pencil in any other crop with 150$/ ac rent and tell me you are comfortable seeding that crop @ the current fall prices.

Bought a planter. Seed at 2.8 lbs/ ac regardless of seed size. This is the only way we can win in the long term. Decreasing seeding rate through any means necessary... if every farmer had a planter we would win for about 2 seasons, then the seeding company would crank up seed cost by 60%. Lol
its truly a losing proposition... always 1 step ahead and have every excuse in their back pocket * seed companies* when something goes wrong.

[Old Cowzilla]

Carryout

Is that why my grain buyer suggested a $11.50 bottom ?

[SASKFARMER]

Some of us are gone south

[seldomseen]

We often hear farmers say “ lock the bins to make them pay” I am guilty of that attitude as well.
According to my local elevator lots of locals haven’t sold anything yet and if the boys down south haven’t sold much then the lock the bins idea isn’t working very good!

[ajl]

Most US grain heads to a sale position straight off the combine, especially in winter wheat country. So most '23 US grain has been priced already. I am sure they normally start to make a bit of '24 sales now. What % of 23 crop canola has been priced to this point. My guess is 60%. 3 farmer poll had one priced at 100%, one 85% priced and the smallest (me) at 33% priced on 2023 canola. So the situation is not that dire. I think the low for the time being is in for canola but not expecting prices to get much higher. Maybe see 14.50 before the combines harvest 24 canola. Lower seed prices definitely needed for the long term.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Most US grain heads to a sale position straight off the combine, especially in winter wheat country. So most '23 US grain has been priced already. I am sure they normally start to make a bit of '24 sales now. What % of 23 crop canola has been priced to this point. My guess is 60%. 3 farmer poll had one priced at 100%, one 85% priced and the smallest (me) at 33% priced on 2023 canola. So the situation is not that dire. I think the low for the time being is in for canola but not expecting prices to get much higher. Maybe see 14.50 before the combines harvest 24 canola. Lower seed prices definitely needed for the long term.

Just because it was moved off the combine doesn't mean it was priced. Lots of discussion of deferred payment and basis or futures only contracts on newagtalk since fall.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Since forage is already upset with me for making commodity marketing related posts in commodity marketing, I might as well continue.
I found this map fascinating. Cropland density around the world.
It's humbling to see how little of the world is actually arable.
India really stands out. If you've ever wondered how a small country with such a dense population can be a food exporter, this map explains it. High density of cropland over almost all of India.
The relative size and density of the cropland in Brazil and Argentina aren't as significant as I would have thought.
The black sea region definitely stands out in density compared to the rest of Europe.
I always thought South Africa had more agricultural land than indicated here.
The Sahel is much more dense than I realized.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Mapping-Cropland-Cover-Around-the-World-Share-Full-Size.html

[AlbertaFarmer5]

This winter would have been the one to retire on.

I've often said that I should sell out after a really dry year. An unsuspecting buyer would look at the consistent corner to corner heavy stubble from last years crop and never suspect the carnage that ensues here on a normal year in the swamp.
This would have been the perfect year for that. A buyer from the Palliser triangle would think this was paradise.
As happened a lot during the 30's. Then it started raining again...

[Taiga]

Check out China on Google Earth, almost the entire country has been terraced and farmed for centuries, amazing how the landscape has been modified with basic hand tools and barehands.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

AB5 I was thinking the other day where would the canola price be if we had achieved the 26 million tonnes of total production. I believe we were just over 18 million tonnes and we have had prices drop by just under 28% from the end of August to now. Where is the market for all this canola that the Canola council wants us to produce? And how do seed companies justify the steep rise in the price of seed over the last 5 years?

So, not only did they get production drastically wrong, they also massively overestimated demand.
But we should definitely trust every other organization making forecasts about renewable energy, climate change, covid, etc.

I heard an interesting idea recently.
We open a newspaper and read an article about a subject we know well, and pick it apart because the author obviously doesn't know what they are talking about. Then we turn to the next page to read about a topic we aren't experts in, and read the rest of the news as gospel, assuming all the other authors know exactly what they are talking about. There is even a name for this phenomenon. Which I can't find.

[TOM4CWB]

AU report Thx!
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[TOM4CWB]

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