NO TRAFFIC on Agriville Feb 25/26

[Old Cowzilla]

If you believe the guys to the south of us on agtalk most of them have not sold more than 20% of the 23 crop and some still have some 22 left. Buyers might think there's a year of crop to play with and a cheaper price ahead. Wars,plague,and economic problems around world yet we still feed 8 billion people...........or do we? -20 this morning.

[furrowtickler]

If you believe the guys to the south of us on agtalk most of them have not sold more than 20% of the 23 crop and some still have some 22 left. Buyers might think there's a year of crop to play with and a cheaper price ahead. Wars,plague,and economic problems around world yet we still feed 8 billion people...........or do we? -20 this morning.

Yes that is an issue with unsold grain . Could be burdensome come June / July
temps really dropped

[makar]

-36 in Chinook valley.

[furrowtickler]

-36 in Chinook valley.

Get much snow your way ?

[makar]

Ten inches, had zero.

[Hamloc]

I just checked the Canola Council strategic plan from 2014. Which is still valid according to their website.
52 bushels and 26 million Tonnes by 2025. That is 2 years away, and would need to increase production by 42% in 2 years to achieve that production number. In fact we are still below the 2013 baseline used in the strategic plan. 10years later.

The 2013 baseline yield was 40 bu/acre. The average yield in the 10 years since is 38.61 bu/acre.

All the money poured into research, the latest seed technology and genetics, placed with the latest seeding technology, fertilized with all the newest snake oils, protected with ever greater chemistries in pesticides, harvested with ever more efficient combines and methods, bigger, supposedly more efficient farms, all combined haven't gained anything.

Seeing stats such as this, gives a whole new perspective on the communist 5 year plans. If we can't do it with every resource available, highly motivated entrepreneurs, and the free market to motivate us, how could it ever have worked in a command economy? Even the threat of being sent to a gulag or worse can't fix the weather.

Meanwhile, Brazil soybean yields have gained 22% over that same period, while acres grew 50%.

AB5 I was thinking the other day where would the canola price be if we had achieved the 26 million tonnes of total production. I believe we were just over 18 million tonnes and we have had prices drop by just under 28% from the end of August to now. Where is the market for all this canola that the Canola council wants us to produce? And how do seed companies justify the steep rise in the price of seed over the last 5 years?

[fjlip]

Canola fund positions

[fjlip]

Carryout

[goalieguy847]

Bayer seed 2021
" seed treatment caused massive germ issues... sweep under rug.... charge more for seed in 2022"

Pioneer seed 2022 " someone forgot to turn the pivots on during seed canola production and more than half production didnt happen"

2023,2024,2025 and every subsequent year -- every grain company... " our new canola is the best ever... will outyield anything youve ever grown....."

Meanwhile.... 5440/ L130/ 75-42..... " ohhhh reaaallllyyyyyy"



Canola seed companies can justify the price increases becauses because we keep paying for them. And for some reason.. despite canola not really being a winner.. everyone and their dog thinks that its the be all and end all money maker.

Heres a thought for reference.
IF growing canola got banned completely and entirely ( or came down to .... 2$/ bushel) what would you be comfortable paying in rent?
when negotiating rent north of Calgary... everyone automatically thinks of how many canola crops they can get out of that lease.

Pencil in any other crop with 150$/ ac rent and tell me you are comfortable seeding that crop @ the current fall prices.

Bought a planter. Seed at 2.8 lbs/ ac regardless of seed size. This is the only way we can win in the long term. Decreasing seeding rate through any means necessary... if every farmer had a planter we would win for about 2 seasons, then the seeding company would crank up seed cost by 60%. Lol
its truly a losing proposition... always 1 step ahead and have every excuse in their back pocket * seed companies* when something goes wrong.

[Old Cowzilla]

Carryout

Is that why my grain buyer suggested a $11.50 bottom ?