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Pretend Price Comparisons

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    Pretend Price Comparisons

    February 9, 2007


    Letter to the Editor


    It was suggested in the February 1 issues of the Manitoba Cooperator and Farmers Independent Weekly that an Ontario farmer currently selling hard red spring wheat with 13.5 per cent protein would receive $5.50 per bushel, whereas a grower on the Prairies selling 1CWRS would receive about $4.40 per bushel as a final pool return—approximately $1.10 less. The implication is that this is because of poor performance by the CWB. That implication is incorrect, because of several errors in the comparison.

    To begin with, the comparison relates a spot price (the Ontario price) to a pool value (the CWB Pool Return Outlook). This is a misleading comparison. A pool value is by definition an average of prices achieved over an entire crop year. In a rising market such as we have experienced so far this crop year, a spot price is always higher than a pooled price. Is the CWB selling wheat at those “high” Ontario values and returning those dollars to farmers? Yes. In fact, CWB values are even higher, as noted below.

    The Ontario farmer spot price of $5.50 per bushel is presumably a price at or near an Ontario mill. Therefore, an appropriate comparison would be the current price of CWB wheat landed at an Ontario mill. On February 5, the CWB offered eastern mills No.1 CWRS with 13.5 per cent protein for $230.47 per tonne at Thunder Bay. Add to this freight charges of $25 from Thunder Bay to the mill, and the landed price equals $255.47 per tonne or $6.95 per bushel.

    The comparison, then, is between $5.50 per bushel of hard red spring wheat to the Ontario farmer and $6.95 per bushel for CWB wheat sold in Ontario. This $6.95 per bushel would be added to the pooled payments western farmers receive for wheat sold throughout the 2006-07 crop year. Because the CWB’s Ontario sales prices are based on competitive North American values, western farmers can obtain similar cash values today under the CWB’s other pricing options such as our Daily Price Contract. It appears that Ontario farmers are receiving prices that are significantly under current market values.

    The truth, therefore, is the exact opposite: CWB prices are higher.

    Sincerely,


    Gord Flaten,

    CWB Vice-President of Marketing

    #2
    Joe Janzen's observations on the letter from his blog

    http://designatedarea.blogspot.com/

    The entire letter rests upon the CWB's belief in its own power, that they can tell processors, millers, and bakers what the price of wheat is anywhere and everywhere. I suppose in some fantasy world perhaps, but what buyer would pay $6.95/bu to the CWB when it can apparently buy from local growers for $5.50?

    The CWB's "offered" price is not the price the farmer delivers against. The farmer delivers against the PRO or against Fixed Price and Daily Price Contracts that are based on US futures prices adjusted by basis levels and CWB deductions and "adjusting factors". But if they can claim this made up price to be "the truth", then I suppose I can claim that my farm is "offering" canola for $15/bu this year, oats for $3.50/bu, and confectionary sunflowers at $0.40/lb and make the accountant and the credit union really happy.

    The single desk seems to give the CWB a monopoly on one thing: crazy. I hope no one else is buying what they are selling.

    Comment


      #3
      Sorry Gord I'll have to go with Joe on this one, real world prices trump your pretend ones everyday.

      Comment


        #4
        My question when I see a CWB price quote is always how much business was done that day? If no business that day, then the price quote is really not worth a lot.

        I also have to get fairly precise on the quality specifications of both price quotes (is Ontario wheat quoted more like a 1CWRS 13.5 or 2CWRS 13.5 or a 3CWRS 13.5) as well as all the other factors that go into the contract (unit train versus single truck, ability to do forward sales, ability to do alternative types of contracts including basis, etc.).

        If the CWB is able to extract $1.50/bu premium, then why is the Canadian Miller Association such a big supporter of the CWB? I assume any good business would support a business that allows them access to the lowest price.

        Comment


          #5
          I think a good business looks at the big picture, charliep

          Economic benefit is more than pricing.

          Learn from the Algerians.

          Substitute "Ontario Millers Association" in place of "Algerian Board"

          Let's see how it would read IF the Board treats Ontarions as it does Algerians:

          =
          However, the benefits of doing business with CWB do not end there: according to Canadian Miller Association(OMA), CWB also provides technical assistance in the form of training for executives from the OMA and the agricultural sector.

          In addition, the CWB pays the loading costs, and facilitations are offered with regard to the method of payment.

          "No other entity offers us these advantages," says OMA, and OMA confirms the privileged status OMA enjoys in its trade with CWB, stating that OMA "is one of CWB's traditional customers, and our relationship goes back to the early 40s."

          According to CWB, commerce between the two entities remains strong in spite of a drop in OMA purchases in recent years, due to the increase in local production stimulated by the Ontario Wheat Marketing Board.

          The CWB representative believes that "the relationship between OMA and CWB in this area is more than just commercial, but it is also a partnership, since many OMA executives benefit from training or professional development programs in CWB."

          With regard to the marketing operation conducted by the Canadian Wheat Board, CWB says although "we travel throughout Ontario to inform OMA about the characteristics of our crop," OMA "is of primary importance =


          Oh the percs.......


          Parsley

          Comment


            #6
            I tend to agree with Fransisco as to why the flour mill would pay $1.45 a bushel more to the CWB as appose to the local producer. I tried to do a search on Ontario Flour Mill pricing but unable to find any prices. Does anyone have a website or a link to which I could access this information?
            Thanks

            Comment


              #7
              Here are Ontario Wheat Producers Marketing Board prices today. Don't know a delivered mill price - will have to get help from an Ontario farmer.

              http://www.ontariowheatboard.com/Daily%20Cash%20Prices/Basis.html

              The also provide a daily basis quote by location - again have to have help from an Ontario farmer. Bottom of page under the corn and soybean quotes.

              http://www.ontariowheatboard.com/marketing/mktroundup.html

              Also have grade specifications - not so sure if this is grades referred to in the quotes. When I see a price, I have to know th grade.

              http://www.ontariowheatboard.com/production/gradespecs.html

              Comment

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