My attempt at FAIR wheat price comparisons

[bgmb]

spot price comparison:
http://www.bottineaufarmers.com/index.cfm?show=11&mid=6
Feb 07 spring wheat FOB bottineau ND
4.43usd/bu
5.21CDN/bu (no.2 northern spring wheat 13.5%pro)

DPC
6.38cdn/bu in store Vancouver
5.02cdn/bu in southern manitoba (No. 1 13.5% pro)

Forward price (new crop) comparison:
http://www.swgrain.com/index.cfm?show=11&mid=3
Taylor ND:
new crop
4.52/bu
5.32cdn/bu

CWB FPC 07-08
6.00 cdn/bu in store Vancouver (before the basis)
Assume we get a $15/tonne positive basis
(yes, i know this is a big assumption)
5.05cdn/bu in southern manitoba.

And the kicker is we have to store 80% of the wheat we put on a fixed price contract.
I think storage is worth about $1/tonne/week by the time you take into account interest and storage costs, risks ect.......

[bgmb]

oh yeah and another thing about the daily price contract; we have to sign up in advance before we can even price which is a very interesting way of doing things.

Thank you so much CWB for this great flexibility and accurate price discovery you are offering us with the new producer payment options!

[SASKFARMER3]

Thank you for the price comparison etc.
If more farmers would just pick up the phone and call places in ND and Montana etc. or drive down and see what the heck prices are their eyes would open wide.
We have long been getting the short end of the stick from the CWB when it comes to prices.
They are not a premium price getter they are a Costco, Big supply for lower price.

[JohnKenneth]

i think using an FPC with a $-10/t basis is the most realistic way to budget in new-crop acres. but if you can grow high-protein (i know, n is expensive) the premiums should be a lot better next year.

i can work cwrs back to over $5.50/bu net my yard which makes me look hard at switching so much out of wheat into canola like i'd earlier planned. however like you said how much of this comes off due to having to store it so long.

[kamichel]

Johnk 5.50 your yard??? From the CWB you are dreaming

[bgmb]

JK

Can you show us your calculations, the only way i can see 5.50 in your yard would be if you live in alberta (lower freight)
and you are assuming a pretty good positive cwb FPC basis.
this is my calc:
Futures price: 220/tonne
Basis: 15/tonne
deductions/frieght -50/tonne
= 185/tonne
or 5.04/bu