Chas, I'm Adam, my grandpa was Alan, that must have been what confused you.
All kidding aside, I don't think anyone believes opening the border will solve all our problems but there are some very specific problems that it will solve. Like the lack of price arbitrage that exists as was mentioned in the winter wheat thread I started earlier today. The way I see opening the border is that I won't have to take my grain south because the world price will come to me.
Today Canola, Oats, Peas etc. can all be delivered and sold directly into the U.S. I know many farmers that deliver canola to the crusher at Velva ND and there is no fuss there are no protests from American farmers. It isn't the amount of wheat or even that there is wheat at all going into the U.S. that upsets American growers, it's how it is coming across and who is doing it. It's the CWB Chas, not the wheat itself!
The American farmer knows that if I as an individual sell my grain into their system I'm will sell at current market price, I have no incentive to sell for anything less, why would I sell for $3.90 bu. when they're offering $4.00?
But what the Americans don't know and are highly suspect of, is that the CWB will sell to a buyer at a discount in order to make the sale. The CWB can do this because they have no aquisition costs. The CWB also has the ability to sell large volumes into a single market and suppress the price. Even the biggest farmers can't manage thos types of volumes.
Back to the Canola, although I don't sell to Velva myself, I am always monitoring the price their offering and never sell to the local grain companies when thier prices are substantialy lower than Velva minus the cost of getting grain to Velva. When thos prices come into line the opportunity to sell into the local market is now attractive.
WHEAT would work the same way!
Within a fifty mile radius of my farm with the exception of a few, all the major grain companies have new terminals. Even with an open border my grain stays in Canada because that price would be here as well.
Surely you can understand that logic?
The American price is the world price and whether I sell wheat 20 miles south of the border or 20 miles north of the border will have zero, I repeat zero effect on price.
AdamSmith
All kidding aside, I don't think anyone believes opening the border will solve all our problems but there are some very specific problems that it will solve. Like the lack of price arbitrage that exists as was mentioned in the winter wheat thread I started earlier today. The way I see opening the border is that I won't have to take my grain south because the world price will come to me.
Today Canola, Oats, Peas etc. can all be delivered and sold directly into the U.S. I know many farmers that deliver canola to the crusher at Velva ND and there is no fuss there are no protests from American farmers. It isn't the amount of wheat or even that there is wheat at all going into the U.S. that upsets American growers, it's how it is coming across and who is doing it. It's the CWB Chas, not the wheat itself!
The American farmer knows that if I as an individual sell my grain into their system I'm will sell at current market price, I have no incentive to sell for anything less, why would I sell for $3.90 bu. when they're offering $4.00?
But what the Americans don't know and are highly suspect of, is that the CWB will sell to a buyer at a discount in order to make the sale. The CWB can do this because they have no aquisition costs. The CWB also has the ability to sell large volumes into a single market and suppress the price. Even the biggest farmers can't manage thos types of volumes.
Back to the Canola, although I don't sell to Velva myself, I am always monitoring the price their offering and never sell to the local grain companies when thier prices are substantialy lower than Velva minus the cost of getting grain to Velva. When thos prices come into line the opportunity to sell into the local market is now attractive.
WHEAT would work the same way!
Within a fifty mile radius of my farm with the exception of a few, all the major grain companies have new terminals. Even with an open border my grain stays in Canada because that price would be here as well.
Surely you can understand that logic?
The American price is the world price and whether I sell wheat 20 miles south of the border or 20 miles north of the border will have zero, I repeat zero effect on price.
AdamSmith
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