Volatility Alert (VIX)

[wrongway]

i think after years of preaching doom and gloom errol might now just be onto something this time...
its hard to make predictions...especially about the future!

[errolanderson]

Stock market chart technicals look bad. Key reversal lower on the weekly chart.

A crash here could take years to repair. Rates would be cut immediately. Market intrigue and high risk.

[mcfarms]

Surprising to me after 10 years no one's thought to tell Errol he's holding the chart upside down.

[errolanderson]

Side note: VIX up 14% today. Strap-in for some choppy market waves.

[foragefarmer]

We identified signs in January 2020 suggesting the stock market was preparing for a pullback.

As a result, we went to Bonds in January, as our analysis suggested the market was about to roll over.

The US stock market continued higher for another month until late February.

We are not seeing any of those same signs and are not seeing evidence of a recession or upcoming one.

Now, a recession will happen... sometime...but we are not seeing any indications of a market crash at this time.

Subject to change.

The late Feb to March 23/2020 pullback in the market was all covid related, so your move to get into Bonds in Jan 2020 was remarkable to say the least.

I picked out the particular months of 2020 only as examples of how someone trying to time the market could take a double financial shit kicking by selling to late and then buying back to late in just a matter of a month.

Where as someone who just held and did nothing came out of this Covid pullback just fine.

WheatKing, when did you cash in the Bonds and get back into the market?

[wheatking16]

The late Feb to March 23/2020 pullback in the market was all covid related, so your move to get into Bonds in Jan 2020 was remarkable to say the least.

I picked out the particular months of 2020 only as examples of how someone trying to time the market could take a double financial shit kicking by selling to late and then buying back to late in just a matter of a month.

Where as someone who just held and did nothing came out of this Covid pullback just fine.

WheatKing, when did you cash in the Bonds and get back into the market?

I don't know off-hand when we flipped back into equities, but I can assure you my timing was poorly executed and did not reenter soon enough.

That explains why I don't remember.

I let my bias of the news, etc., negatively impact my decision, and I had a poor entry.

Another lesson learned and hopefully not repeated.

I moved on.

[foragefarmer]

I don't know off-hand when we flipped back into equities, but I can assure you my timing was poorly executed and did not reenter soon enough.

That explains why I don't remember.

I let my bias of the news, etc., negatively impact my decision, and I had a poor entry.

Another lesson learned and hopefully not repeated.

I moved on.

The timing of the buy-back is always so difficult, especially if you miss a few of those major day rallies while sitting on the side line.

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda, really effects the brain.

[Grahamp]

SP comes almost all the way back. The appetite for stocks seems infinite.

[wheatking16]

The timing of the buy-back is always so difficult, especially if you miss a few of those major day rallies while sitting on the side line.

Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda, really effects the brain.

It does.

One has to move on.

[errolanderson]

Bank of Canada rate cuts incoming. Friday’s dismal Cdn job losses in March sets-the-stage for a series of rate cuts beginning in June. Canada’s recession deepening . . . .

U.S. jobs was pumped-up on part-time work. Families forced to work multiple jobs as debt crisis intensifies. Gov’t credibility and support the stock market at-all-cost is really setting the stage for a meltdown (IMO).

Rates have to be cut ASAP. The U.S. economy is faltering.