Volatility Alert (VIX)

[errolanderson]

VOLATILITY ALERT: VIX index appears quite undervalued considering the market risks coming down-the-pipe (IMO).

Gold buying fever, China buying? But miners disappoint. Japan Nikkei 225 suddenly swoons. U.S. equities now in a massive, dangerous, concentrated bubble? Selling could erupt out-of-blue, most unexpectedly as noted by JP Morgan alert. Banking crisis deepening, but still mostly under-the-radar.

Are impressive gov’t jobs data real? Layoffs still appear exploding. Bitcoin grossly undervalued or grossly overvalued? We’ll know more soon.

Spidey sense; lots of volatility straight ahead for both bulls and bears. Errol’s Commodity Wire

[errolanderson]

Instability issues right now:

Crypto collapse underway? Cattle board fallout, lower feeder and live trading window.

Fed and Bank of Canada will be too late to cut rates (IMO). Drinking their own tonic water as debt crisis rages.

Japan, financial collapse. U.S. Treasury market alert. U.S. gov’t debt rocketing about $115,000 per second, that’s $1 trillion every 100 days.

Gold rocket on China buying. U.S. dollar testing a 2-year high. Index retesting 105 would be a 4 1/2 year high. Slight crack heard across record-breaking equities.

errolanderson.substack.com

[littledoggie]

Last year prices offered in Clyde today.

[errolanderson]

VIX UP 8% this morning. starting to smell-the-coffee? Precious metals rolling. Stocks, start of a correction or just hiccup?

[Robertbarlage]

I agree sometime there is going to be a major correction , but when and what should a simpleton do to survive the hurricane ?

[mcfarms]

First step to protect investments is don't listen to self proclaimed experts in internet chat rooms.

[foragefarmer]

Do nothing. Investing is time not timing.

Robert in your opinion what's a major correction 10% ?

Did you get out of the market in early Feb of 2020 or in early March of 2020?

If you did sell during that time period when did you get back in, early April or early May of 2020?

Besides, if you had been following Errol's doom and gloom advise the past 4 years you would have missed out on one of the best bull runs in history.

[wheatking16]

Do nothing. Investing is time not timing.

Robert in your opinion what's a major correction 10% ?

Did you get out of the market in early Feb of 2020 or in early March of 2020?

If you did sell during that time period when did you get back in, early April or early May of 2020?

Besides, if you had been following Errol's doom and gloom advise the past 4 years you would have missed out on one of the best bull runs in history.

We identified signs in January 2020 suggesting the stock market was preparing for a pullback.

As a result, we went to Bonds in January, as our analysis suggested the market was about to roll over.

The US stock market continued higher for another month until late February.

We are not seeing any of those same signs and are not seeing evidence of a recession or upcoming one.

Now, a recession will happen... sometime...but we are not seeing any indications of a market crash at this time.

Subject to change.

[Sodbuster]

Times are a bit different at this time as there are more options available, a GIC today can net you 5%. Four years ago the only option for investors was basically the stock market and money markets were dead.

[errolanderson]

Extreme signs of greed. Stock market rally has nothing to do with the real economy. Total disconnect.

U.S. is already in-recession. Gov’t jobs data is of limited creditability (IMO). 100,000 job monthly jobs mistake kinda says it all.

A stock market break would be devastating right now. A open wound and limited recovery. Remember, the Fed motive is; DO NOT UPSET THE FLOCK.

[wrongway]

i think after years of preaching doom and gloom errol might now just be onto something this time...
its hard to make predictions...especially about the future!

[errolanderson]

Stock market chart technicals look bad. Key reversal lower on the weekly chart.

A crash here could take years to repair. Rates would be cut immediately. Market intrigue and high risk.

[mcfarms]

Surprising to me after 10 years no one's thought to tell Errol he's holding the chart upside down.

[errolanderson]

Side note: VIX up 14% today. Strap-in for some choppy market waves.

[foragefarmer]

We identified signs in January 2020 suggesting the stock market was preparing for a pullback.

As a result, we went to Bonds in January, as our analysis suggested the market was about to roll over.

The US stock market continued higher for another month until late February.

We are not seeing any of those same signs and are not seeing evidence of a recession or upcoming one.

Now, a recession will happen... sometime...but we are not seeing any indications of a market crash at this time.

Subject to change.

The late Feb to March 23/2020 pullback in the market was all covid related, so your move to get into Bonds in Jan 2020 was remarkable to say the least.

I picked out the particular months of 2020 only as examples of how someone trying to time the market could take a double financial shit kicking by selling to late and then buying back to late in just a matter of a month.

Where as someone who just held and did nothing came out of this Covid pullback just fine.

WheatKing, when did you cash in the Bonds and get back into the market?