Volatility Alert (VIX)

[Taiga]

I have been pricing home building for the last 6 months and prices are insane, you can buy a nice existing house with land for less than you can build on your own property for. Just pure cost of construction (labour and materials) driving the price too high.
Gov't will build nothing.
I think the capital gains tax, which is getting massive pushback because it affects way more people than just the 'super wealthy' that the govt claims it impacts, will get scrapped/amended.
Costs of everything is too high.. million dollar tractors meanwhile the SK 2024 Crop Production Guide forecasts everything as a money loser except a few specialty lentils and pulses, not good.

[errolanderson]

• U.S. Economy Entering Recession 1st quarter GDP just 1.6% well below expectations. This is more than an 50% decline in U.S. economic growth of 3.4% posted in Q4 2023. U.S. bank estimates have missed this by a mile.
• Equities likely now in an extended bear market (IMO).
• BOC rate cuts expected very soon. [email]errolanderson@substack.com[/email]

[errolanderson]

U.S. ON AN UNSUSTAINABLE FISCAL COURSE.

Has Powell’s conscience finally got to him or does he realize he is likely out the door in 8 months? Or both?

Finally, truth and reality merging . . .

[errolanderson]

Real estate stateside appears collapsing. Commercial real estate is in total disarray. What is the Fed thinking?

[TSIPP]

I have been pricing home building for the last 6 months and prices are insane, you can buy a nice existing house with land for less than you can build on your own property for. Just pure cost of construction (labour and materials) driving the price too high.
Gov't will build nothing.
I think the capital gains tax, which is getting massive pushback because it affects way more people than just the 'super wealthy' that the govt claims it impacts, will get scrapped/amended.
Costs of everything is too high.. million dollar tractors meanwhile the SK 2024 Crop Production Guide forecasts everything as a money loser except a few specialty lentils and pulses, not good.

Something like this can be done for around 200 thousand, bring your own hammer.

[errolanderson]

Global markets stocks and commodities had a brutal day. Even cocoa in-collapse. Main stream media forgets to report the turn-of-events.

Japan fallout (Yen collapse) appears rippling across global financials. Starbucks and McDonalds, big earnings misses. Statements from Powell and Yellen hint at-desperation and rhetoric. Fed housecleaning dearly needed, but simply too late. Stock markets at beginning of-a-dive?

Apologies for my sarcasm, but manipulation game is so over (IMO).

[furrowtickler]

Something like this can be done for around 200 thousand, bring your own hammer.

Absolutely awesome. I did my own as well.
thumbs up , cause emotional damage on emoji lol .
External costs have risen beyond ridiculous for contractors.
while the obscene coalition printing press keeps going overboard, carbon tax’s escalating, everyday costs are skyrocketing…… who would have ever thought the budget would balance itself…..and housing costs go ballistic …
meanwhile as to point out exactly, those that can’t fend for themselves are completely screwed. Thank your local NDP / Liberal MLA that you kids and grandchildren are fubard for life .
All to appease the WEF and extreme leftist governments at the end of the day .
This is what they voted for

“Socialism works until you run out of other people’s money” Marg Thatcher
that happened about 3 years ago in Canada

[littledoggie]

Canada's very own marxist plutocrat that controls the countries purse proposes to hike the debt ceiling by 16 percent from $1.83 trillion to $2.13 trillion. The ceiling was as low as $1.17 trillion in 2021.
"Let’s be honest on what austerity and a shrunken federal government would mean for Canadians,” said Freeland. “It would mean you would have to fend for yourselves. That is not how we do things here in Canada.....Our government is at your service."

[url]https://www.blacklocks.ca/feds-hike-debt-ceiling-again/[/url]

(it's behind a paywall - but trust me this is what she says. I am not a whack job.)

[errolanderson]

Group . . . U.S. job growth really hitting the brakes. And the unofficial recession is deepening. Concern now has to be a possible gov’t debt default.
Ramifications mind-boggling.

Talk of no Fed rate cuts just last week have changed quickly. Bank of England and Bank of Canada may cut rates in June. Debt wheels-right-off-the-track.

Crude oil and diesel now entering bear market (IMO). Wheat is getting some legs on Russia and Midwest weather issues. Funds are shortcovering. This is supporting corn and beans and canola as well. But a watch may be possible fallout in the energy sector (IMO).

Rate cuts right around the corner. The debt implosion Is a far greater risk than inflation. Asset deflation is now rampant in some sectors.Truflation is well below gov’t estimates (IMO).

Central bank policies battling inflation are down the wrong rabbit hole. In fact, most central banks globally are now cutting rates. Debt crisis will fix any inflationary pressures without central bank help. Investors running out of money does have an impact on prices.

Sensing another pickup in volatility again in financials, more energy fallout. Grains appear in gradual recovery. But gov’t debt fallout a threat. My two-bites . . . . [email]errolanderson@substack.com[/email]

[errolanderson]

China is now experiencing an epic deflationary crash. This will impact trade on all levels.

Rate cuts, rate cuts. Sweden latest along with Switzerland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Bank of Canada now warning of financial systemic risks. BOC is likely to cut rates in June (IMO). errolanderson.substack.com

[errolanderson]

Crude oil prices have pulled nearly 10% lower so far in May. Alberta WCS oil breaking from $65 to 53.50 per barrel. OPEC infighting possible as supply cuts unable to support global prices. Gasoline and diesel price trend down.
errolanderson.substack.com

[crusher]

CPS wheat and canola are the charts I'm most concerned about and they are at the high end of their trading range over the last 6 months. Nice to get rid of the last of the inventory at better prices. Even barley up a tiny bit.

[sumdumguy]

Contractors want cash, no Trudeau in that equation.

[errolanderson]

Not a good week for the Dow Jones after testing record highs. Poor earnings from Target, Walmart, Walgreens. Slowing traffic through Starbucks drive-through. Businesses being flat-out liquidated. Employees heard getting no severance stateside on liquidation. This is harder economic fallout than 2008 meltdown.

Recession beginning to hit the U.S. and Canada hard. Middle class tapped out. If this is the beginning of the equity correction, the Fed may be forced to make emergency rate cuts. BOC cuts likely to start within the month (IMO).

[foragefarmer]

Dow YTD up 4.33%, 52 week range 32327 to 40077, yesterday's close 39069.

VIX S&P 500 at 11.93.

Hard to buy into your how many year now predication?

Still not as bad as storing and wagering the farm on $53.00/bushel canola.