Canadian Barley Exports Suck!

[rain]

Just had a look at what I think the most current barley export numbers are from the CGC

As of December 06.

Total barley exports 527,000 Tonne. Same time frame in 05, 1,306,000 Tonne.

Barley bulls better sell there barley right now. I have warning people that if the barley exports do not come through, which I don't think they will. We will not be short barley and we will see $2.60 barley delivered Lethbridge by June.

Drought and Exports are the only two things that could change this outlook.

I hope I'm wrong but watch the cash prisces in the next month, prices will likely soften into the road ban season. If this happens watch out.

[kamichel]

In 02 03 the last time the price was high about this time of year the price did crash. Hope you are wrong. The price of corn which supports barley prices is still strong as ever. I don't think the American farmers will be able to sourse the nitrogen for the corn acres either. Just my opinion. I am still bull everything.

[farmers_son]

Re your comment that the new owners of Agri-ville are Americans.

Check out:
http://www.hoovers.com/farms.com/--ID__99014--/free-co-factsheet.xhtml

What difference does it make if Farm.com is Canadian or U.S. based? We really do live in a global age where international borders for business do not exist, especially between Canada and the United States.

I can remember when I was a kid that there was a rivalry between the two neighbouring small towns. People from one town did not mix much with people from the other town, sporting events were hotly contested between the two towns. If you happened to live somewhere in between the two towns your allegiance was determined by your choice of post office and which hall your weddings and funerals were held in. These were towns of about 25 people each.

That rivalry does not exist to the same extent now, the two towns are still there but people go back and forth between the two easily. People from one town will assist at public events in the other town, back and forth and so on.

The point I am trying to make is this Canadian versus American thing is really old and really small town. It does not matter if Agri-ville is owned by Americans or Canadians. It also does not matter if beef in a U.S. retail cooler is from Canada or the United States. Or if a packer in Washington is slaughtering live cattle from Canada or the U.S. They all end up just as dead. There is a very low incidence of BSE on both sides of the border even if producers on the south side of the “tracks” claim their wash is whiter than ours.

There is a North American market for live cattle and beef. Not Canadian or American. And who cares who owns Agri-ville.

[cswilson]

I don't think Master Kaiser would sell out for 1/2 a cent a hit lol.

[coppertop]

Well, if Randy is getting paid so much a 'hit', then he darn well better start forking over the Lion's share of his windfall to the rest of us, because without our responses to his most recent posts where would he be ???

We have made him what he is today, and he is reaping the monetary benefit !!!

[rkaiser]

Lighten up farmer_son.

I love America --- especially now that I know GW is going to get punted out of his position as the head of the KKK.

[rkaiser]

By the way farmer_son, I agree with your post and mine was simply trying to point out the respect that I have for grassroots American capitalism. You gotta admit; in general those Americans do a hell of a lot better job selling themselves than us Canuckleheads.

Which brings me to another question? Not that I don't respect the right of anyone to privacy, but why do most Canadians hide out here on the web with these code names? Even Old Willowcreek has shown us his website with the sign on the big building in the background whited out. You know that building Willowcreek, the one with the words ----tal health facility across the top of the door.

Being a "hold the party line" ABP/CCA man or women might hold you back from exposing your true identity here on agriville, but even those folks should not be afraid to take one on the chin from time to time.

[rain]

kamichel

The main difference in 02/03 was we where actually short barley. in 06/07 however we are not short barley. Actual exports are low before the rail strike so don't blame rhe shortfall on CN.

Maybe the CWB sales are back loaded this crop year. Every tonne of barley not exported gets added to our carryout stock.

For the sake of arguement 1 MMT does not get exported. That means we go from deficit to surplus carryout. this could make next years carryout 3-4MMT if current forecast are correct.

Corn in my mind only puts a ceiling on the barley market. Corn today is 225/MT that mean barley shoud be 180 to 190 delivered. The current price is 160-167, these are spot values.

Barley producers should be 3/4 (minimum) sold all barley stocks at this point.

If the CWB does not get the movement or we do not get a drought we will see 115 to 120 (delivered) barley in the fall.

All the above are MT prices Calgary area.

[kamichel]

can you give me the website for the CGC? All I get is porn sites

[rain]

http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/main-e.htm



Cut and past the top one, on the right hand sid under publications go down to Exports of Canadian Grain and Wheat Flour.

[peaqueen]

It is interesting to note that small shippers get inquiries to export barley to clients in the USA and around the world.

Given the fact that the CWB system of accredited exporters prevents small shippers from the normal process of export trade applied to open market commodities this busines is not filled.

This is demand that although not huge could be an interesting part of the container trade from Canada.

CWB supporter and the like should insure small shippers can export, and not just the accredited exporters (who actually read like a whos who of multinational grain companies (but are these not he same guys we are worried would slaughter us in an open market? I digress.)

[parsley]

peaqueen,

About AE's.....what are the requirements for being an AE, and how does the CWB select from the applicants?

The CWB states:

"In any given year, the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) markets over 20 million tonnes of grain to more than 70 countries. Total sales revenue for western Canadian wheat and barley reached $5.8 billion for the 1996-97 crop year."

Whoever can get a percentage of this action banks a grand holiday, peaqueen, agreed?


"Accredited exporters are national and multinational companies authorized to purchase grain from the CWB for resale to customers and other exporters."

So are there different resale prices for different EA's on the same day? Is the resale price transparent among ALL AE's?

"Many accredited exporters are tied into extensive sales networks and markets that complement the CWB's sales efforts. With branch offices scattered around the globe, these companies can make direct contact with customers in markets the CWB would have to travel to, thereby helping to reduce unnecessary expense."

So does that mean that the CWB choses an non-agricultural AE that is a dental distributor or say, a mining company?


"Accredited exporters also facilitate sales through freight sharing and acceptance of financial risk."

ACCEPTANCE OF FINANCIAL RISK....Now there's where the farmer's ear should perk up. What about an open, transparent listing of WHO the company is? I can find AU's financial sheets, but what about, say, Eagle Sterling?

"In addition, some buyers may present financial risks not acceptable to the CWB. Accredited exporters provide a valuable service by assuming this financial risk."

There. So why are the requirements safeguarding that AE's will not default, ARE NOT POSTED ON THE CWB WEBSITE? (Some AE's may present financial risks not acceptable to the farmer!)

"AEs are both Canadian and international, all of whom maintain a registered office in Western Canada."

Registerd with whom?


peaqueen, charliep, can you answer any of these questions?

Parsley

[charliep]

You can also get monthly export volumes by country from the CGC website. What it shows exports to Saudi Arabia and Iran are the major differences between the two crop years.

Parsley - I'll let you ask your question directly to the CWB in another thread. Rain has highlighted in the past how many threads get pulled off topic to overall CWB issues. The original thread has merit on its own.

[parsley]

Sorry charliep.

[rain]

Thanks Charlie.

You are right Charlie, more times then enough we get into a pro-wheatboard/anti-wheatboard bitch session in the commodity marketing section.

A producer in the Calgary region should have been able to price $3.75 FOB for Feed Barley in The Calgary region last week for June July pick up. That is $20.00 under FOB Bin.

Last fall I remember asking if anyone was taking basis for barley when everyone was getting so bullish barley. Dimes to Doughnuts know one did.

With a normal size crop in Canada next year we could see $2.25 to $2.75 barley

Look out guys history has a way of repeating itself.

With exports so far behind forecast at this point producers should be very very nervous.

Malt barley growers who do not normally sell into the feed market are at the most risk. Most have know idea of feed barley price history. I hope every CWB Malt grower who fudged his malt barley samples to get out of their contract gets burned. I have never seen a Feedmill, Feedlot, or Grain Company who bought too high try to get out of a contract. I have seem a few farmers try and walk on contracts however. I never liked working with grain producers, I alway liked the agribusiness people more.