Canadian Barley Exports Suck!

[kamichel]

Sorry Rain I still cannot get into the CGC website. Still get porn. Are you sure the address is correct?

[kamichel]

I have not looked at that website yet but actually last year there was a massive feed export program last year. And also acres and yield are down this year.

[charliep]

Tried cutting/pasting and it works for me.

http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/

If you are still having problems, try googling canadian grain commssion and move into from there. This is a site I would bookmark as contains a lot of usefull information.

[charliep]

Below is the supply demand I have put together. Look for others comments. I note we had a good discussion not to far back about the canola s & d as well as implications for the markets over the summer.

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sis5324

[kamichel]

Acres yield down, stocks to use extremely low. still looks good. Still cannot get into the cgc reports.

[DiamondSCattleCo]

I think one of the first things that Agri-villes new owners could do to increase traffic is get some decent forums software. Something that shows new posts would be a welcome addition and would certainly increase the number of times I hit here.

Rod

[farmers_son]

rkaiser: I guess it depends upon what is being sold.

In case it sounds like I am pro American that would not be the case. I do see that the packers we sell our product to are global players even if the head office is in the United States. Cattle producers need to think out of the box if they ever hope to capture their fair share of the consumer’s food dollar. This Canadian versus American thing does not advance the cause of producers in either country.

In another thread I posted an article on how the producers in Australia are getting paid low prices at the same time as retail beef prices in that country are at all time highs. The problem is everywhere. The packers will buy live cattle from Canadians, Americans, Australians, or from whomever at the lowest price possible. The Americans are pushing for MCOOL thinking it will force up the price of their live cattle. Not likely, it will just further split the North American live cattle market and create opportunities for the packers to divide and conquer.

It is good to be a proud Canadian, or a proud American, proud Australian, and so on. But business is business and live cattle producers need to realize their competition is not the producer next door or the producer across the border rather the competition is the packing plants who compete for all of the consumers food dollar they can get their hands on. Primary producers in all countries need to start thinking in terms of how they can work together to get a better portion of that food dollar.

[rkaiser]

I would not ad much to that post farmer_son, except to say that BSE testing for export markets would help to stop this captive market drivvel that we are currently experiencing and help packing competition and producers on both sides of the border to survive.

Come now farmer_son, I agree to ever word in your post, how about something back.

[rain]

kamichel

Stocks are not low. If we doe not export the barley, if it gets rolled into next year is screws up next years exports and supply-demand situation.

If the forecasted exports do not happen we are not short barley. Right now we have a gross oversupply of barley. the current barley supply does not warrant these prices.

[poorboy]

Rain,

The current supply of Canola does not warrant the price it is at either. The bullish sentiment of the market is what is helping to hold or increase prices.

The stock market is a prime example. You just need a large amount of money to buy into certain areas and specific stocks and you have a rally. A bull market is a terrific thing to be in. The hard part is to know when it is going to run out of steam.

Don't be selling yourself short on all your production and don't be holding all your crops back for the ultimate top. Prices are good, sell in stages.

[rain]

Your right poorboy. sell some all along.

Canola exports I have not looked at. My point is we have domestic markets for barley and canola. We have agood idea of what our maximum domestic use of the barley and canola is.

If we do not export either, we have too much. No supply shortage/or big supply shortage.

Use the CGC numbers weekly to see if exports are going good. Compare the forecasted numbers to the average exports needed to make export forecast.

We have a lot of good information, readily available for free to help make our own informed decisions.

Use the cwb, stats can, and cwb numbers, right there for free on the internet for you to use.

My point is if exports do not happen we are not short anything in this country, we are a supplier of raw products.

[farmers_son]

Rkaiser: As always...an interesting statement. Now to be fair, you did not agree to every word in my post. You added a little exception about BSE testing.

You said “BSE testing for export markets would help to stop this captive market drivel that we are currently experiencing and help packing competition and producers on both sides of the border to survive.”

If we look at Australia which is not testing for BSE and has great access to export markets we would see that their producers are still subject to a captive market the same as we are. The packers are ripping off the Australian producers even if the Aussie government denies it is happening; just like governments in Canada and for that matter the United States will deny the packers rip of their respective producers.

I thought the post on the Australian packers ripping of their producers would have gotten more interest. Our industry problems run much deeper than disagreements over BSE testing.

[rkaiser]

I agree once again farmer_son, but still contest that BSE testing could start the ball rolling along with a bunch more balls that ABP/CCA has shown that they have LOL,to help stop the mutinationals from taking control of the entire beef business WORLD WIDE.

Long enough sentence for you?

[farmers_son]

In Canada, we still remain dependent upon live cattle access to the U.S. market otherwise there is not fair pricing of our live cattle from our two packers.

Therefore BSE testing or no BSE testing, it will matter little what beef is exported by the packers or to where it is exported. The price of our live cattle does not reflect the value of the beef product, only what the packer is required to pay us to avoid having the live animal go elsewhere. There is nothing wrong with the wholesale/retail price of beef. The price of hamburger in Canada is at an all time high; that is not the problem. The problem is we have no where else to go to sell the live animal and our prices reflect that.

If we do not have an alternative market for our live cattle, for example cows, then the packers can pay us almost nothing and we have to take it. In Canada, that alternative market for live cows is the United States. And for feeders from the Northwest U.S., prior to May 2003, our Alberta feedlots provided an alternative market for their calves. Without those alternative markets producers are at the mercy of those further up the value chain who will gladly profit from our situation.

As a primary producer we raise and sell live cattle, not beef. I am sure you would agree with that. The only thing that will put more cash in my jeans is more markets for the live animal.

[rkaiser]

BSE testing COULD open doors for those new markets farmer_son. Ask The manager of Ranchers Beef in Calgary if you don't believe me and the good old BIG C gang.