Canadian Barley Exports Suck!

[charliep]

You can also get monthly export volumes by country from the CGC website. What it shows exports to Saudi Arabia and Iran are the major differences between the two crop years.

Parsley - I'll let you ask your question directly to the CWB in another thread. Rain has highlighted in the past how many threads get pulled off topic to overall CWB issues. The original thread has merit on its own.

[parsley]

Sorry charliep.

[rain]

Thanks Charlie.

You are right Charlie, more times then enough we get into a pro-wheatboard/anti-wheatboard bitch session in the commodity marketing section.

A producer in the Calgary region should have been able to price $3.75 FOB for Feed Barley in The Calgary region last week for June July pick up. That is $20.00 under FOB Bin.

Last fall I remember asking if anyone was taking basis for barley when everyone was getting so bullish barley. Dimes to Doughnuts know one did.

With a normal size crop in Canada next year we could see $2.25 to $2.75 barley

Look out guys history has a way of repeating itself.

With exports so far behind forecast at this point producers should be very very nervous.

Malt barley growers who do not normally sell into the feed market are at the most risk. Most have know idea of feed barley price history. I hope every CWB Malt grower who fudged his malt barley samples to get out of their contract gets burned. I have never seen a Feedmill, Feedlot, or Grain Company who bought too high try to get out of a contract. I have seem a few farmers try and walk on contracts however. I never liked working with grain producers, I alway liked the agribusiness people more.

[kamichel]

Sorry Rain I still cannot get into the CGC website. Still get porn. Are you sure the address is correct?

[kamichel]

I have not looked at that website yet but actually last year there was a massive feed export program last year. And also acres and yield are down this year.

[charliep]

Tried cutting/pasting and it works for me.

http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/

If you are still having problems, try googling canadian grain commssion and move into from there. This is a site I would bookmark as contains a lot of usefull information.

[charliep]

Below is the supply demand I have put together. Look for others comments. I note we had a good discussion not to far back about the canola s & d as well as implications for the markets over the summer.

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/sis5324

[kamichel]

Acres yield down, stocks to use extremely low. still looks good. Still cannot get into the cgc reports.

[DiamondSCattleCo]

I think one of the first things that Agri-villes new owners could do to increase traffic is get some decent forums software. Something that shows new posts would be a welcome addition and would certainly increase the number of times I hit here.

Rod

[farmers_son]

rkaiser: I guess it depends upon what is being sold.

In case it sounds like I am pro American that would not be the case. I do see that the packers we sell our product to are global players even if the head office is in the United States. Cattle producers need to think out of the box if they ever hope to capture their fair share of the consumer’s food dollar. This Canadian versus American thing does not advance the cause of producers in either country.

In another thread I posted an article on how the producers in Australia are getting paid low prices at the same time as retail beef prices in that country are at all time highs. The problem is everywhere. The packers will buy live cattle from Canadians, Americans, Australians, or from whomever at the lowest price possible. The Americans are pushing for MCOOL thinking it will force up the price of their live cattle. Not likely, it will just further split the North American live cattle market and create opportunities for the packers to divide and conquer.

It is good to be a proud Canadian, or a proud American, proud Australian, and so on. But business is business and live cattle producers need to realize their competition is not the producer next door or the producer across the border rather the competition is the packing plants who compete for all of the consumers food dollar they can get their hands on. Primary producers in all countries need to start thinking in terms of how they can work together to get a better portion of that food dollar.

[rkaiser]

I would not ad much to that post farmer_son, except to say that BSE testing for export markets would help to stop this captive market drivvel that we are currently experiencing and help packing competition and producers on both sides of the border to survive.

Come now farmer_son, I agree to ever word in your post, how about something back.

[rain]

kamichel

Stocks are not low. If we doe not export the barley, if it gets rolled into next year is screws up next years exports and supply-demand situation.

If the forecasted exports do not happen we are not short barley. Right now we have a gross oversupply of barley. the current barley supply does not warrant these prices.