Canadian Barley Exports Suck!

[rain]

Just had a look at what I think the most current barley export numbers are from the CGC

As of December 06.

Total barley exports 527,000 Tonne. Same time frame in 05, 1,306,000 Tonne.

Barley bulls better sell there barley right now. I have warning people that if the barley exports do not come through, which I don't think they will. We will not be short barley and we will see $2.60 barley delivered Lethbridge by June.

Drought and Exports are the only two things that could change this outlook.

I hope I'm wrong but watch the cash prisces in the next month, prices will likely soften into the road ban season. If this happens watch out.

[kamichel]

In 02 03 the last time the price was high about this time of year the price did crash. Hope you are wrong. The price of corn which supports barley prices is still strong as ever. I don't think the American farmers will be able to sourse the nitrogen for the corn acres either. Just my opinion. I am still bull everything.

[farmers_son]

Re your comment that the new owners of Agri-ville are Americans.

Check out:
http://www.hoovers.com/farms.com/--ID__99014--/free-co-factsheet.xhtml

What difference does it make if Farm.com is Canadian or U.S. based? We really do live in a global age where international borders for business do not exist, especially between Canada and the United States.

I can remember when I was a kid that there was a rivalry between the two neighbouring small towns. People from one town did not mix much with people from the other town, sporting events were hotly contested between the two towns. If you happened to live somewhere in between the two towns your allegiance was determined by your choice of post office and which hall your weddings and funerals were held in. These were towns of about 25 people each.

That rivalry does not exist to the same extent now, the two towns are still there but people go back and forth between the two easily. People from one town will assist at public events in the other town, back and forth and so on.

The point I am trying to make is this Canadian versus American thing is really old and really small town. It does not matter if Agri-ville is owned by Americans or Canadians. It also does not matter if beef in a U.S. retail cooler is from Canada or the United States. Or if a packer in Washington is slaughtering live cattle from Canada or the U.S. They all end up just as dead. There is a very low incidence of BSE on both sides of the border even if producers on the south side of the “tracks” claim their wash is whiter than ours.

There is a North American market for live cattle and beef. Not Canadian or American. And who cares who owns Agri-ville.

[cswilson]

I don't think Master Kaiser would sell out for 1/2 a cent a hit lol.

[coppertop]

Well, if Randy is getting paid so much a 'hit', then he darn well better start forking over the Lion's share of his windfall to the rest of us, because without our responses to his most recent posts where would he be ???

We have made him what he is today, and he is reaping the monetary benefit !!!

[rkaiser]

Lighten up farmer_son.

I love America --- especially now that I know GW is going to get punted out of his position as the head of the KKK.

[rkaiser]

By the way farmer_son, I agree with your post and mine was simply trying to point out the respect that I have for grassroots American capitalism. You gotta admit; in general those Americans do a hell of a lot better job selling themselves than us Canuckleheads.

Which brings me to another question? Not that I don't respect the right of anyone to privacy, but why do most Canadians hide out here on the web with these code names? Even Old Willowcreek has shown us his website with the sign on the big building in the background whited out. You know that building Willowcreek, the one with the words ----tal health facility across the top of the door.

Being a "hold the party line" ABP/CCA man or women might hold you back from exposing your true identity here on agriville, but even those folks should not be afraid to take one on the chin from time to time.

[rain]

kamichel

The main difference in 02/03 was we where actually short barley. in 06/07 however we are not short barley. Actual exports are low before the rail strike so don't blame rhe shortfall on CN.

Maybe the CWB sales are back loaded this crop year. Every tonne of barley not exported gets added to our carryout stock.

For the sake of arguement 1 MMT does not get exported. That means we go from deficit to surplus carryout. this could make next years carryout 3-4MMT if current forecast are correct.

Corn in my mind only puts a ceiling on the barley market. Corn today is 225/MT that mean barley shoud be 180 to 190 delivered. The current price is 160-167, these are spot values.

Barley producers should be 3/4 (minimum) sold all barley stocks at this point.

If the CWB does not get the movement or we do not get a drought we will see 115 to 120 (delivered) barley in the fall.

All the above are MT prices Calgary area.

[kamichel]

can you give me the website for the CGC? All I get is porn sites

[rain]

http://www.grainscanada.gc.ca/main-e.htm



Cut and past the top one, on the right hand sid under publications go down to Exports of Canadian Grain and Wheat Flour.