Where are wheat’s legs coming from?

[flea beetle]

Why is wheat jumping all of a sudden? They finally realized that we are at some of the lowest stocks in recent history? Dryness in the US winter wheat belt? Dryness in Russian wheat area? Normal spring rally timing? Or funds are just covering their massive short?

Or is it a combination of all that brewing into the perfect storm?

Where do you guys think we going from here? Is the bottom finally in? Or just a correction in a down trending market?

[cropgrower]

my 9 dollar target that has been in for months has not hit yet ! hopefully soon

[flea beetle]

Yes. 1-13.5 is $9.20 in Alberta. Front month leading over summer months by a couple Pennies. Makes me think they want it sooner rather than later?

one thing I did notice is the spread between hard red and CPS has closed up. Used to be around $1 difference. Now it is around $0.60-$0.65. Not sure if that means anything?

Maybe buyers aren’t picky what they are getting now, as long as they get some sort of wheat bought? Am I reading too much into that?

[cropgrower]

Manitoba is all ways less money , having higher transport cost due to location

[bucket]

Ukraine grain infrastructure getting bombed regularly. Isn't it nice to know that dipshit Trudeau is spending money to help rebuild Ukrainian grain infrastructure eventually.

[flea beetle]

Ukraine grain infrastructure getting bombed regularly. Isn't it nice to know that dipshit Trudeau is spending money to help rebuild Ukrainian grain infrastructure eventually.

Cheap food policy at its best!

[furrowtickler]

Big thing was 2 months ago all major grain companies were pushing the absurd story of an expected huge record wheat crop for 2024 in Russia, yup in mid winter, like anyone on earth can predict that .
now they caught with their pants down on the reality that it won’t be , in fact never was , in mid winter lol

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If you could wait about 6 months for an answer, forage can tell us exactly what the wheat market did and why. And how he predicted it and sold all of his production from years ago at the very high again.

And on a serious note. The more I learn about markets, the more I accept that fundamentals really don't matter. They only matter as at justification after the fact. If fundamentals actually mattered, the wheat market would be higher today than it was 2 years ago when it had no business being that high.

[fcr]

Sold a few loads today for 9.10 april/ may delivery,hopefully bottom of market going forward.

[flea beetle]

Buyer who knows I have all my wheat yet to sell phoned and wants to stop in tomorrow. I have had targets above the market all winter, and she has been trying to talk me down to selling for the same amount of time, citing the big Russian crop furrow was talking about. The other day when I heard Iran/israel news I texted and said to pull the targets and take a wait and see approach. Now all of a sudden they want to come over for a chat? Something doesn’t smell right.

[goalieguy847]

Well a bunch of US crop got downgraded... but at 8$ pencil in 50 bushel hard red. ( hint, its a loss if you are paying anything above 80$/ ac rent).
it needed to do its usual spike in order to male sure adequate acres went in so they can push the fall price sub 8.00.

A bit of iran / israel scare and when oil goes up... everything goes up. ..
My new rule is that if, at seeding, you can price above crop insurance values for october.... then do it. They never seem to be wrong!

[furrowtickler]

Buyer who knows I have all my wheat yet to sell phoned and wants to stop in tomorrow. I have had targets above the market all winter, and she has been trying to talk me down to selling for the same amount of time, citing the big Russian crop furrow was talking about. The other day when I heard Iran/israel news I texted and said to pull the targets and take a wait and see approach. Now all of a sudden they want to come over for a chat? Something doesn’t smell right.

It has not smelled right since December. None of it made sense whatsoever

[13stripe]

Saw post where India may be short of wheat.

[furrowtickler]

Saw post where India may be short of wheat.

[url]https://youtu.be/zMmm3rqwfhw[/url]

https://youtu.be/zMmm3rqwfhw

[SASKFARMER]

Russia Ukraine big crop no more