Where are wheat’s legs coming from?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I see reference above to the Middle East war being bullish wheat prices. I've heard that concept often lately. But can someone explain to me why that would be bullish wheat prices? A region that imports grain being destabilized doesn't seem bullish on the demand side of The ledger. Disrupting freight doesn't seem bullish. More expensive freight doesn't seem bullish on the sellers end.
It may be bullish commodities overall, especially energy, which will spill over into ag commodities perhaps.
Or will probably be inflationary which will lift all boats.
It seems to me that the bullish factors would be much longer term, whereas the short-term effects look more bearish.

Where is the flaw in my argument?

[flea beetle]

I see reference above to the Middle East war being bullish wheat prices. I've heard that concept often lately. But can someone explain to me why that would be bullish wheat prices? A region that imports grain being destabilized doesn't seem bullish on the demand side of The ledger. Disrupting freight doesn't seem bullish. More expensive freight doesn't seem bullish on the sellers end.
It may be bullish commodities overall, especially energy, which will spill over into ag commodities perhaps.
Or will probably be inflationary which will lift all boats.
It seems to me that the bullish factors would be much longer term, whereas the short-term effects look more bearish.

Where is the flaw in my argument?

My thought process went to exactly what you wrote about the war being bullish commodities in general, especially energy, and that bullishness spilling over into ag.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

My thought process went to exactly what you wrote about the war being bullish commodities in general, especially energy, and that bullishness spilling over into ag.

I can see that leading to hoarding and stockpiling. Which would be bullish in the short term. But bearish eventually.

[Sodbuster]

Still lots of unknowns at this point.
Winter wheat in the States
Conditions in Ukraine and Russia
Indian wheat crops
Prairies, will we see enough rain this year

[wheatking16]

If you could wait about 6 months for an answer, forage can tell us exactly what the wheat market did and why. And how he predicted it and sold all of his production from years ago at the very high again.

And on a serious note. The more I learn about markets, the more I accept that fundamentals really don't matter. They only matter as at justification after the fact. If fundamentals actually mattered, the wheat market would be higher today than it was 2 years ago when it had no business being that high.

YES!!!!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

YES!!!!

Would you recommend turning off the news and ignoring the social media, then just subscribing to a local Saskatchewan farm boy who offers a technical analysis service? Who accurately warned his subscribers about downtrend?

[wheatking16]

Now that you mention it....

[Old Cowzilla]

Predictions of India moving into importing wheat are playing into the game. Inventory is a little low and they are usually grow enough of there own.

[foragefarmer]

If you could wait about 6 months for an answer, forage can tell us exactly what the wheat market did and why. And how he predicted it and sold all of his production from years ago at the very high again.

And on a serious note. The more I learn about markets, the more I accept that fundamentals really don't matter. They only matter as at justification after the fact. If fundamentals actually mattered, the wheat market would be higher today than it was 2 years ago when it had no business being that high.

Thanks for the compliment on my common sense marketing, even though it's frequency is coming across as the crippling emotion of jealousy, your mental health is concerning.

As mention I left wheat growing years ago, so it's all yours Ab5, have at it.

But, I do see you're still hung up on missing out on those record prices and blaming the current market fundementals for not providing you with a price you feel it should be for that second chance.

Ab5, you got to move on as others have also stated on Agriville, it's 2024 so concentrate on seeding your wheat, rather than looking through the rear view mirror at 2022.

[errolanderson]

December Kansas City Wheat

Hedgers note: Chart resistance seen at $7 per bu approaching . . . .