Where are wheat’s legs coming from?

[makar]

Was plus 1 here this morning now solid smoke.

[cropgrower]

wheat big jump up this morning

[sumdumguy]

Seeding is getting late around here, usually the new crops are covering gumbo flats. Very few crops are seeded- most are making trial runs and a few crops are greening up.

[Old Cowzilla]

They keep downgrading Russian wheat crop from frost and lack of rainfall.Almost 10 mil shorter than 2 weeks ago. Maybe that war thing too ..... who knows! Could not seed yesterday ,too wet but least got the spraying done.

[Sodbuster]

Wheat on the rise again, Minn up 10 cents, Kansas up 20 and Chicago up 18 cents. Looking like the trend line is finally up after resisting bullish news in the past, maybe the hedge funds will jump to the long side and spark a real rally. Hopeful the trend is your friend. I’m finally getting a 2nd chance to market my 23 crop that should have been dumped last fall.

[fjlip]

Most is priced, so price goes up...

[furrowtickler]

Wheat on the rise again, Minn up 10 cents, Kansas up 20 and Chicago up 18 cents. Looking like the trend line is finally up after resisting bullish news in the past, maybe the hedge funds will jump to the long side and spark a real rally. Hopeful the trend is your friend. I’m finally getting a 2nd chance to market my 23 crop that should have been dumped last fall.

Same here
we priced some a month ago to cover bills. But it’s been a long time since last fall

[fcr]

Anyone know why the drop in cwrs price this week.

[errolanderson]

July Minneapolis Spring Wheat over the past month. Commodities are now in a broad-based global deflationary sell-off.

Most central banks globally are cutting rates to stem financial trainwreck in-progress.

Wheat caught in the cross-fire . . . .
errolanderson.substack.com

[bucket]

Errol

Do you think the bank of Canada went too high with interest rates and too long at these higher rates?

I heard Maklem say it takes a certain amount of time to see the effects from raising them but he never stopped.

3 percent would have been the number to stop at in my opinion and now they might have to go to 2percent in the decline..

Extremes don't help the economy.

Sadly these guys are paid lots of money to guinea pig their ideas.

[wheatking16]

Anyone know why the drop in cwrs price this week.

Several reasons:

1. CBOT directs CWRS
2. The average contract holder of CBOT Wheat from May 16 2022 had been underwater, and the sell-off began when they got back to even.
3. This aligned with a test of the 200 WK MA at the same level.
4. Also aligning with a 23.6% retracement from the March 2022 high and the March 2022 low.
5. Also aligning with 9 weeks of price advance.

These are the reasons why we shorted CBOT wheat last week without paying attention to the news.

Some may point to news, a weather event or funnymentals, but the above are the reasons.

[Sodbuster]

Next time give us some advance notice when you’re going to short the market.

[wheatking16]

Next time give us some advance notice when you’re going to short the market.

I share my ideas in my newsletters.

[jazz]

What about the loonie. A 25 basis cut yesterday shaved a cent off the loon now. If the BoC has to lower rates a couple percent, to hold off the Trudeau recession we all know is coming, we are looking at a 66c loon. Supportive for exports but punishing for any imports.

Both wheat and seed oils are in an oversold condition, reversal likely in next month.

[wheatking16]

What about the loonie. A 25 basis cut yesterday shaved a cent off the loon now. If the BoC has to lower rates a couple percent, to hold off the Trudeau recession we all know is coming, we are looking at a 66c loon. Supportive for exports but punishing for any imports.

Both wheat and seed oils are in an oversold condition, reversal likely in next month.

I am always interested in how oversold/overbought conditions are determined.

What parameters are you using?