Canola

[silverback]

So soybeans keep on climbing and canola keeps on dropping.

Is this all the CN/Unions fault? It can't all be foreign exchange.

Maybe I do need to learn how to drive a train engine! This is ridiculous.

[kamichel]

I have also been noticing the relationship between soybeans and canola. I wonder perhaps what the americans are getting for the soybeans is the basis very wide also?
Is the futures prices speculator driven? Compared to the american soy future price our canola should be higher.
USA will have a new crop acreage drop, we will have an acreage increase, maybe that has all to do with it.

[IAMTHEMOLE]

March 07 beans are 7.71/bu. There is 36.744 bushels of soybeans/MT. Canadian dollar at 85.5 cents. This gives us a $331.33/MT cdn for soybeans. March canola priced at 369/mt cdn. does not look underpriced to soybeans. Canola spent a good part of last year at a discount to soybeans. We had all better hope soyoil prices remain high in order to keep our current premium to soybeans. Go biodiesel go!!

[bobn]

silverback

Looking at Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil and Soybean charts it appears that Soybean prices are being driven more by meal than the oil. This may actually have a more negative effect on oil prices and canola since it encourages more oil to be extracted than the demand for oil warrants. This is not to say that the CN strike isn't affecting canola as well. Hopefully they will be back to work soon.

[rain]

Look at the bean oil chart. Bean oil and Canola both peaked within one day of each other. Bean oil up Canola UP. Bean oil down Canola down.

Generaly speaking to a bean oil chart and put it over a canola chat line up the days and most of the time it is a mirror image.

[JohnKenneth]

this year it almost seems crude oil has been better correlated to canola prices than anything else. those declines recently have taken a big bite out of biodiesel margins. the fall rally in canola had a lot to do with market hype and speculation over the crop's value related to the bio-fuel developments. my take is that this is a lot of spillover pressure from energy markets and spec-related.

also think world vegoil stocks are heavy. i'm probably wrong about this but wouldn't the cn strike hurt the basis more than futures?

[SASKFARMER3]

I too have been watching the markets and Wow!
Now what I feel is happening for some reason the West Coast ports are a disaster and it seems every year the traffic that's going through their they cant handle.
Now second the Markets are reacting to CN and ports congestion.
Oils still moving to Europe from our crushers etc.
Less inventory on farm as a couple of weeks ago by stats Canada (most farmers are holding 40% of crop of 07 to sell) a lot of bins are getting empty.
Federal Bio Fuel program that isn't mentioning Bio Diesel and that is hurting.
No Crop in Australia etc.
And if Fertilizer keeps going up a lot of the seed that's booked wont get picked up.
Just my two cents.