Canola Acres

[wd9]

Anyone care to guess how many canola acres / production there will be in Canada this year?

My guess, and only because we farmers love to cut up the bull and feed it to the bear as Larry would say:

14.8 million acres, production 10 million tonnes.

Any other guesses?

[JohnKenneth]

my guess is 14.5 million acres. don't think we can increase the area by more than 10% due to seed availability. also doubt we'll see the big push after markets have been flat to lower for 2 months, especially with new-crop peas coming up to $5-5.25/bu during that same time and wheat futures holding at pretty high levels.

on that, i really think a lot depends on what the board comes out with next week for new-crop pro's and the basis. if we see $225/t that will change things a lot.

no doubt in my mind that barley and oat acres are going up. special crops need a big increase and we've seen big increases in contract prices in some the last couple of months.

just my 2 cents. good thread topic, very timely.

[JohnKenneth]

oh yeah, i also have to say that larry weber's comments on canola haven't been making a whole pile of sense to me lately, just my opinion.

i also get a little tired of being lectured to and generalized about. every second sentence out of his mouth is something to the effect of what a poor job farmers do in marketing and how stupid we all are for not selling anything yet. he's a broker too, right? wonder why he wants everyone to start selling so bad. long futures too?

egos that big get in the way of good analysis a lot of the time, in my experience. his stuff isn't even analysis most of the time either, just regurgitated news from other sources.

then again maybe i'm just mad because i forward sold this year's crop too soon based on his bearish view in august.

[kamichel]

From a chinese friend in the Sichuan basin. The chinese canola crop has entered flowering at too early of time of the year. They tell me it is bad news because early flowering results in low yields. The Sichuan basin produces a large part of chinese canola. I think we can expect chinese demand in the next month. After that the chinese canola crop will start to supply their market. Go trains go.

[SASKFARMER3]

Hell Ill jump in to on the Acreage I'm going with

14.2 million acres But here is the kicker total production 8.99.

Fert Costs will cause last minuet drop in acreage, and if price cant lift in next 7 weeks before stats can report in April we will see less than that.

Larry Weber is correct marketing is more important than growing a crop. simple math sell fall vs Dec 2 loss 2.25 bushel or 10 bushels an acre yield on 320 acre canola farm. AUSTRALIA was dried out long before and information was available.

[wd9]

re: LW, if you don't grow a good crop and get some bushels, you have nothing to market. There is a balance for sure.