Can ADM make a better offer to AU? What does this mean to SWP? Consolidation was bound to happen, but will farmers benefit or will this mean one less choice to market grain after the CWB is killed? This will put an end to any farmer reps on AU board. Can Patterson-SWP be far behind?
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Will change the landscape alright. Picking a my home country east of Calgary, the new entity will have 3 facilities - Indus (former Agricore - 42,000 tonnes), Carseland (former UGG - 42,000 tonnes) and a Pioneer (Carseland - 18,000 tonnes I think). I assume there will have to some divesting of assets to meet anti combines needs but that has yet to be seen.
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If farmer reps on boards of grain companies is a bad idea how can farmer run value added be a good idea? Do you see the conflict in these propositions? Perhaps it is just who is selected to be on the B.O.D. It may be the scale of the operation. A farmer run small business may succeed but when it comes to something as large as pasta plant specialized management is needed outside the expertise of the people who grow the grain. MPE suffered from a weak BOD, which allowed management to run it into the ground. SWP suffered the same fate and almost dissappeared.
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Isn't it ironic the CWB barley vote has not taken place yet and the future is already clear. There will be more mergers creating nice neat efficient packages for someone to take over. Choice will be the last thing you will have in marketing your grain and yet the Cons say this vote is all about choice.
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To me, this is good news. I'm sure there will be some required divestiture of assets and if smaller players can get bigger by buying some assets from Richardson Agricore, that's all good. And/or, if a new player jumps in, even better.
I've read quite a bit here on Agriville about the increased concentration of the grain handling system but its not as bad as some make out:
1995-96
19 primary elevator firms
top 6 controlled 94% of licenced space
top 8 controlled 98%
today
35 primary elevator firms
top 6 control 81%
top 8 control 89%
Richardson Agricore - as it stands right now - would control 36.2%.
What will be important is the selling of specific elevators to ensure no undue concentration in "small markets".
Also, the terminal question will be a huge stumbling block.
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