El Nino declared over
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared the drought-causing El Nino weather phenomenon has passed after influencing Australia's climate for more than a year.
The bureau says it is time to be optimistic about drought-breaking rains, although the drought is far from over.
In a statement, it says all the main indicators show neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin.
"Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Nino thresholds for about a month now," the statement said.
But the bureau's senior climatologist, Grant Beard, says it may not mean heavy rain is on the way.
"Unfortunately, El Nino is not an on-off switch, so just because the El Nino has finished in terms of its broad-scale indicators, it doesn't mean that imminent widespread rain is about to occur to break the drought," Mr Beard said.
"In fact, a lot of the areas through the south and east of the country, in terms of water supplies, are so far behind that only several years of healthy falls will replenish those supplies to something that is considered satisfactory."
But he says rain is now more likely.
"It provides optimism - cautious optimism, I would say - for a return to more normal rainfall pattern in the drought-affected areas during the next one to two seasons," he said.
Mr Beard says the rain would likely fall over Australia's eastern half and in areas in the country's south-west.
The climatologist says early signs have emerged of an imminent La Nina cycle, which would bring more rain.
"We think that the chance of a La Nina developing this year is probably higher than the long-term level of chance, which is about one in five, or 20 per cent," he said.
"La Ninas are usually associated with above-average rainfall over fairly large areas of the continent, particularly the eastern half of the country.
"But in terms of the long-term water supply issue, it's really impossible to say.
"Several years of above-average falls are really needed."
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared the drought-causing El Nino weather phenomenon has passed after influencing Australia's climate for more than a year.
The bureau says it is time to be optimistic about drought-breaking rains, although the drought is far from over.
In a statement, it says all the main indicators show neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin.
"Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Nino thresholds for about a month now," the statement said.
But the bureau's senior climatologist, Grant Beard, says it may not mean heavy rain is on the way.
"Unfortunately, El Nino is not an on-off switch, so just because the El Nino has finished in terms of its broad-scale indicators, it doesn't mean that imminent widespread rain is about to occur to break the drought," Mr Beard said.
"In fact, a lot of the areas through the south and east of the country, in terms of water supplies, are so far behind that only several years of healthy falls will replenish those supplies to something that is considered satisfactory."
But he says rain is now more likely.
"It provides optimism - cautious optimism, I would say - for a return to more normal rainfall pattern in the drought-affected areas during the next one to two seasons," he said.
Mr Beard says the rain would likely fall over Australia's eastern half and in areas in the country's south-west.
The climatologist says early signs have emerged of an imminent La Nina cycle, which would bring more rain.
"We think that the chance of a La Nina developing this year is probably higher than the long-term level of chance, which is about one in five, or 20 per cent," he said.
"La Ninas are usually associated with above-average rainfall over fairly large areas of the continent, particularly the eastern half of the country.
"But in terms of the long-term water supply issue, it's really impossible to say.
"Several years of above-average falls are really needed."
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