Canola Rally

[crusher]

Up $22/t. I'm going to reward the market a little.

[furrowtickler]

Up $22/t. I'm going to reward the market a little.

Ya it’s time to look at moving more
was watching the US wheat rally last night and was hoping something positive today

[ajl]

Markets figuring out that last years crop not as big as they were saying all winter? Going to need significantly higher prices to deal with the small upcoming crop. Sprayed canola last evening. Conditions ranged from not bad to very sketchy thanks to the spring flood. Now when the crop needs moisture, we are dry. Last significant rain was June 14. Got a shit shower not long after finished spraying.

[furrowtickler]

Drove through several downpours from Edmonton home yesterday

[Sodbuster]

Canola market was up $30 at one point overnight, canola playing catch-up with soyoil being up $2.50 over last 2 days, probably a bit of a weather premium in canola action as well.

[wheatking16]

I find it interesting how we (humans) look for catalysts of a rally in the news when last week's Canola charts prepared us for a bounce at the 610 level.

[jazz]

Canola market was up $30 at one point overnight, canola playing catch-up with soyoil being up $2.50 over last 2 days, probably a bit of a weather premium in canola action as well.

No weather premium. No supply demand change, just money sloshing from one sector to another. Called a July rally 2 weeks ago.

[errolanderson]

ICE CANOLA BREAKING RESISTANCE. Rising trading window.

[furrowtickler]

I would think canola yields in western Canada will be 30% lower than last estimate 2-3 weeks ago, and dropping daily now

[ajl]

Saw lots of canola fields in central AB yesterday that made me feel better about my own canola. Canola surplus is gone. Flood and a drought in the same year. Who would have thunk it?

[Hamloc]

I would think canola yields in western Canada will be 30% lower than last estimate 2-3 weeks ago, and dropping daily now

June 1, I was quite excited, more moisture in May than in many years. Canola was just germinated, things looked good. July 1. June was quite dry but it had rained on the 27th June, crop was late but looked good. Today, not optimistic. Glad I didn’t pre-sell a bushel. Canola getting close to being done flowering. On light land canola is frozen in time and wilting to nothing. Early seeded canola will yield ok. July 1 I was hoping for mid 50’s, now I think 30-40 but might still be too optimistic!

[furrowtickler]

Ya we went fro a 50 bushel canola crop last year to 20 in 2-3 weeks in June to first week in July .
not fun too watch

[AlbertaFarmer5]

We made a road trip around central AB, east of Edmonton, then North as far as the farmland goes, then into the Peace country, north to Peace River, west, then south into Grande Prairie, detoured east for a while, then west all the way to Fort St. John.

There was some excellent looking canola between Falher and Peace River. And that is about the extent of the good news. Other places looked like decent stands, but when you look up close, they are full of aborted pods, blanks, deformed etc. Most was done flowering. Thin, short, and patches of the wrong color were wide spread.

And this seems to apply to areas that had excess moisture until recently too.

A very common theme was fields with large areas of drown outs, and burn outs.

I thought we were going through what would be some of the better crop areas, given the earlier rains.

Maybe not a disaster like some areas were in 2021, or 2023, but far below expectations.

A few days ago I still thought we had full potential on our farm, even on our later frozen canola, but that is gone now.

[makar]

Basis going up as fast as markets.